The 2024 presidential election is only five months away, and the latest poll numbers suggest the Biden campaign is facing an uphill battle. According to a recent survey conducted by public opinion research company Morning Consult, 44% of Americans would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held today, compared to only 42% who would vote for President Joe Biden.
Of course, presidential races are decided by the electoral college, not by popular vote — and in recent years, elections have been decided by just a handful of swing states. This year, seven key swing states are up for grabs, and according to a separate Morning Consult survey, Trump is leading in five of them. (Here is a look at how Biden and Trump compare on the most important issues.)
Notably, pre-election polling has been a less-than-reliable predictor of outcomes in recent cycles. But while surveys gauging head-to-head matchups between the candidates should be taken with a grain of salt, Biden remains a historically unpopular president. According to Gallup, Biden’s average approval rating stood at just 38.7% in early 2024, the lowest of any president elected after World War II president at the start of his fourth year in office.
Public attitudes toward the Biden administration are not uniform across the country, however, and in some states, the president is viewed far more favorably than in others.
Using data from Race to the WH, a political consulting group, 24/7 Wall St. identified Biden’s approval rating in every state. States are ranked on Biden’s current projected approval rating. In the case of a tie, the state with the larger population ranks higher. Approval ratings were calculated by Race to the WH with historical, state-level polling data, and are current as of May 30, 2024.
Biden’s popularity has fluctuated throughout his presidency, with approval ratings swinging between 37% and 57%, according to Gallup. But at the state level, the president’s current approval ratings are, more often than not, a reflection of historical, partisan voting patterns.
Depending on the state, the share of voters who approve of the Biden administration ranges from 56% down to just 17% — and in the 2020 presidential election, Biden won all but three of the 25 states where his support among voters remains the highest. Conversely, in the last election, Biden won only three of the 25 states where his approval ratings are the lowest. (Here is a look at the most important issues to voters in the 2024 election.)
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings are not a direct indicator of how Americans will vote on Election Day. Still, they offer valuable insight into public sentiment regarding the current administration — and in most of the country President Biden’s approval ratings are underwater. With an election looming, the Biden campaign will likely be targeting states that have historically voted Democratic, but where large shares of voters are dissatisfied with the job he is doing as president.
50. Wyoming
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 17%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 83%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (26.6% Biden, 69.9% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 78.1% (18th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
49. North Dakota
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 20%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 77%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (31.8% Biden, 65.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 68.9% (6th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
48. Idaho
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 23%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 66%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (33.1% Biden, 63.9% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 74.7% (23rd lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
47. Kentucky
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 23%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 62%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (36.2% Biden, 62.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 72.8% (20th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes
46. Oklahoma
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 26%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 66%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (32.3% Biden, 65.4% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 69.0% (7th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 7 votes
45. Nebraska
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 27%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 72%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (39.4% Biden, 58.5% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.6% (12th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 5 votes
44. Tennessee
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 27%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 71%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (37.5% Biden, 60.7% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 66.1% (4th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 11 votes
43. Montana
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 29%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 61%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (40.5% Biden, 56.9% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 80.9% (11th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
42. Utah
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 29%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 61%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (37.6% Biden, 58.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 78.4% (15th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
41. South Dakota
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 30%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 71%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (35.6% Biden, 61.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 76.3% (24th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
40. West Virginia
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 31%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 69%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (29.7% Biden, 68.6% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 61.3% (the lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
39. Alabama
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 31%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 63%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (36.6% Biden, 62.0% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 67.5% (5th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 9 votes
38. Minnesota
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 31%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 51%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (52.4% Biden, 45.3% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 82.3% (7th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes
37. Kansas
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 32%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 60%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.6% Biden, 56.2% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 78.1% (19th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
36. Arkansas
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 32%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 64%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (34.8% Biden, 62.4% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.7% (13th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
35. South Carolina
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 32%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 59%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (43.4% Biden, 55.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 69.7% (9th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 9 votes
34. Indiana
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 32%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 57%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.0% Biden, 57.0% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 63.1% (2nd lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 11 votes
33. Iowa
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 33%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 55%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (44.9% Biden, 53.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.2% (10th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
32. Louisiana
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 33%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 58%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (39.9% Biden, 58.5% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 71.1% (16th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes
31. Colorado
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 35%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 46%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (55.4% Biden, 41.9% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 85.0% (the highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes
30. Mississippi
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 36%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 62%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.1% Biden, 57.6% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 63.9% (3rd lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
29. Ohio
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 37%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 55%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (45.2% Biden, 53.3% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.7% (14th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 17 votes
28. Florida
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 37%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 53%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (47.9% Biden, 51.2% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 77.5% (20th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 30 votes
27. Rhode Island
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 38%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 54%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (59.4% Biden, 38.6% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 73.2% (21st lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
26. Missouri
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 38%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 62%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.4% Biden, 56.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 69.6% (8th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes
25. Alaska
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 39%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 61%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (42.8% Biden, 52.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 75.6% (25th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
24. Arizona
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 39%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 54%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.4% Biden, 49.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 79.9% (12th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 11 votes
23. New Mexico
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 40%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 52%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (54.3% Biden, 43.5% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 79.7% (13th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 5 votes
22. Virginia
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 40%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 58%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (54.1% Biden, 44.0% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 71.7% (18th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 13 votes
21. North Carolina
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 40%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 57%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (48.6% Biden, 49.9% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 75.0% (24th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 16 votes
20. Nevada
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 41%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 54%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (50.1% Biden, 47.7% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 78.2% (16th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes
19. Wisconsin
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 41%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 55%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.4% Biden, 48.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 84.2% (4th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes
18. Michigan
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 41%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 55%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (50.6% Biden, 47.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 82.1% (8th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 15 votes
17. Pennsylvania
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 41%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 56%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (50.0% Biden, 48.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 83.4% (5th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 19 votes
16. New Jersey
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 42%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 46%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (57.3% Biden, 41.4% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 71.6% (17th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 14 votes
15. Texas
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 42%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 54%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (46.5% Biden, 52.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 72.0% (19th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 40 votes
14. Georgia
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 43%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 52%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.5% Biden, 49.3% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 82.0% (9th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 16 votes
13. New Hampshire
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 44%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 54%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (52.7% Biden, 45.4% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 81.3% (10th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
12. Hawaii
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 44%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 53%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (63.7% Biden, 34.3% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 78.2% (17th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
11. Oregon
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 44%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 50%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (56.5% Biden, 40.4% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 84.7% (2nd highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes
10. Washington
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 44%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 47%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (58.0% Biden, 38.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 79.5% (14th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 12 votes
9. Connecticut
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 45%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 49%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (59.3% Biden, 39.2% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.5% (11th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 7 votes
8. Illinois
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 45%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 47%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (57.5% Biden, 40.6% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 75.3% (25th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 19 votes
7. Maine
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 46%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 55%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (53.1% Biden, 44.0% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 84.3% (3rd highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes
6. New York
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 46%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 51%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (60.9% Biden, 37.7% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 74.5% (22nd lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 28 votes
5. Delaware
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 47%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 52%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (58.7% Biden, 39.8% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 70.8% (15th lowest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
4. Massachusetts
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 50%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 48%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (65.6% Biden, 32.1% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 76.7% (21st highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 11 votes
3. California
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 51%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 41%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (63.5% Biden, 34.3% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 76.6% (22nd highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 54 votes
2. Vermont
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 56%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 44%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (66.1% Biden, 30.7% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 82.4% (6th highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes
1. Maryland
- President Biden’s estimated approval rating: 56%
- President Biden’s estimated disapproval rating: 43%
- 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (65.4% Biden, 32.2% Trump)
- Registered voters who participated in Nov. 2022 midterm election: 76.5% (23rd highest of 50 states)
- Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes
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