Politics

States Where Biden's Approval Rating is on the Rise

Sam Stebbins

Published: June 25, 2024 11:50 am

Presidential approval ratings offer a valuable snapshot of the mood of the country and how Americans perceive the leadership, priorities, and efficacy of the current administration. Generally, the higher the approval rating, the greater the likelihood the president’s party keeps or gains power in the next election. For President Joe Biden, this historical pattern leaves little room for optimism, as throughout his first three and a half years in the White House, his approval ratings have been on a steady, downward trend.

When Biden took office in January 2021, 57% of the American public approved of his presidency, according to Gallup. By September of that year, Biden’s approval rating had fallen to 43%. In the months since, the share of voters who approve of Biden’s work as president has fluctuated between 44% and 37%. Currently, at just 39%, Biden’s approval rating is hovering near an all-time low.

While useful, national public opinion polls fail to capture nuances at the state level. And while the Biden administration has so far failed to win back the confidence of the American public at large, there are some states where his job approval rating has improved in recent months.

Using survey data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where Biden’s approval rating is on the rise. States were ranked on the percentage point change in the president’s job approval rating over the last year. Survey responses used to calculate the ranking were collected between March 1 and June 1 in both 2023 and 2024. Only the 16 states where Biden’s approval increased over that period were considered.

Among the states on this list, Biden’s approval rating climbed by anywhere from 0.1 to 2.2 percentage points in the last year. Notably, many of these states are Republican strongholds — places where Biden has little to lose and a lot to gain. Of the 16 states where Biden’s approval is higher now than it was a year ago, 10 went to Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. (Here is a look at which candidate is leading in every swing state.)

Despite recent improvements in public perception, Biden remains unpopular in most of these states. With the single exception of Washington, the president’s disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating in every state on this list. (Here is a look at the most important issues to voters in the 2024 election.)

Why It Matters

Presidential approval ratings are not a direct indicator of how Americans will vote on Election Day. Still, they offer valuable insight into public sentiment regarding the current administration — and in most of the country, President Biden’s approval ratings have been slipping in recent months. With an election looming, the Biden campaign will likely be targeting states that have historically voted Democratic, but where large shares of voters are dissatisfied with the job he is doing as president.

16. Mississippi

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.1 ppt. (35.4% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +0.3 ppt. (59.6% in 2023 to 60.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.4 ppt. (4.9% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.1% Biden, 57.6% Trump)
• Mississippi’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

15. Washington

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.1 ppt. (48.8% in 2023 to 48.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.1 ppt. (48.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.0 ppt. (3.2% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (58.0% Biden, 38.8% Trump)
• Washington’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 12 votes

14. South Dakota

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.2 ppt. (27.5% in 2023 to 27.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.2 ppt. (70.3% in 2023 to 70.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.0 ppt. (2.2% in 2023 to 2.2% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (35.6% Biden, 61.8% Trump)
• South Dakota’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes

13. New Mexico

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.4 ppt. (43.8% in 2023 to 44.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +0.3 ppt. (51.2% in 2023 to 51.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.7 ppt. (5.0% in 2023 to 4.4% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (54.3% Biden, 43.5% Trump)
• New Mexico’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 5 votes

12. Colorado

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.4 ppt. (44.1% in 2023 to 44.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.3 ppt. (53.2% in 2023 to 52.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (2.8% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (55.4% Biden, 41.9% Trump)
• Colorado’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes

11. Texas

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.4 ppt. (38.8% in 2023 to 39.2% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.3 ppt. (57.7% in 2023 to 57.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (3.5% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (46.5% Biden, 52.1% Trump)
• Texas’ 2024 electoral college allocation: 40 votes

10. Rhode Island

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.5 ppt. (43.4% in 2023 to 43.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.1 ppt. (53.1% in 2023 to 55.2% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -2.5 ppt. (3.4% in 2023 to 0.9% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (59.4% Biden, 38.6% Trump)
• Rhode Island’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes

9. Alabama

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.5 ppt. (30.9% in 2023 to 31.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.4 ppt. (65.7% in 2023 to 65.2% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (3.5% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (36.6% Biden, 62.0% Trump)
• Alabama’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 9 votes

8. West Virginia

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.6 ppt. (23.3% in 2023 to 23.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.8 ppt. (74.6% in 2023 to 73.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.2 ppt. (2.1% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (29.7% Biden, 68.6% Trump)
• West Virginia’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes

7. Pennsylvania

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.8 ppt. (40.8% in 2023 to 41.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.6 ppt. (56.7% in 2023 to 56.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.2 ppt. (2.5% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (50.0% Biden, 48.8% Trump)
• Pennsylvania’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 19 votes

6. Arkansas

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +0.9 ppt. (30.2% in 2023 to 31.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.9 ppt. (66.5% in 2023 to 65.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.0 ppt. (3.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (34.8% Biden, 62.4% Trump)
• Arkansas’ 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

5. Arizona

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +1.4 ppt. (39.5% in 2023 to 40.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -1.3 ppt. (58.4% in 2023 to 57.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (2.2% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.4% Biden, 49.1% Trump)
• Arizona’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 11 votes

4. Kansas

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +1.5 ppt. (33.5% in 2023 to 34.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -2.0 ppt. (64.1% in 2023 to 62.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.5 ppt. (2.4% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (41.6% Biden, 56.2% Trump)
• Kansas’ 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

3. Florida

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +1.7 ppt. (38.9% in 2023 to 40.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -1.2 ppt. (57.7% in 2023 to 56.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.5 ppt. (3.3% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (47.9% Biden, 51.2% Trump)
• Florida’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 30 votes

2. Iowa

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +2.2 ppt. (33.5% in 2023 to 35.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -1.4 ppt. (63.2% in 2023 to 61.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.7 ppt. (3.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (44.9% Biden, 53.1% Trump)
• Iowa’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

1. North Dakota

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: +2.2 ppt. (22.8% in 2023 to 25.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -3.0 ppt. (74.7% in 2023 to 71.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.8 ppt. (2.5% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (31.8% Biden, 65.1% Trump)
• North Dakota’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes