24/7 Wall St. Insights

• The 2024 presidential election will likely be decided in a handful of closely-contested swing states
• With Harris at the top of the ticket, the Democratic Party is now leading in several of these key states
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With Election Day less than four months out, President Joe Biden gave in to mounting pressure from within his party and ended his campaign for a second term in the White House. Minutes after withdrawing from the race, Biden publicly backed Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy, triggering a cascade of endorsements and campaign contributions from donors and party leaders. Despite the political risks, early polling suggests the unprecedented shakeup has largely benefitted the Democratic Party.

Even if Biden had not dropped out of the race, the Democrats could reliably count on winning certain states in the November 2024 election. States like California, Illinois, New York, and Washington are Democratic strongholds, and have gone to the party’s candidate in every presidential election since 1992. However, to garner the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House, Biden would have needed to win several closely contested battleground states. (This is a state-by-state look at how Biden’s approval rating changed during his presidency.)

This election year, there are seven swing states that either party could win in November: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the final days of his 2024 campaign, Biden was trailing his Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, in five of them. But now, with Harris as the presumptive nominee, the Democratic Party has gained ground in all seven swing states, and garnered more support than Trump in most of them.

Using data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed how Harris compares to Trump in every swing state. Polling data used in this story includes the share of voters who would support either Trump or Harris if the election were today — both in an election with third party candidates, and in a head-to-head match up — as well as each candidate’s favorability ratings among registered voters. Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100. All seven swing states are listed in alphabetical order.

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris would likely beat Trump in four of the seven swing states if the election were held today. Under the same circumstances, the two candidates are tied in one swing state, and Trump is favored to win the remaining two.

However, as the race stands, Trump and Harris will not be running head-to-head. There are currently several other candidates vying for the presidency, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, Jill Stein for the Green Party, and Chase Oliver, a Libertarian. While none of these alternative candidates are expected to win any state, their presence on the ballot will siphon votes from both major party candidates, and may impact the outcome of the race.

Morning Consult polling shows that third party candidates would cumulatively draw as much as 10% of the vote across all seven swing states. If the election were held today, with all three alternative candidates running, Trump would likely win three swing states, while Harris would win only two. In the two remaining swing states, Trump and Harris are polling evenly.

Notably, these polls only offer a snapshot of current voter sentiment. The only poll that ultimately matters will be held on November 5, 2024 in voting booths across the country. In most swing states, neither Trump nor Harris have an insurmountable lead over their opponent, and the outcome on Election Day may well hinge on which candidate can appeal to more undecided voters in the states on this list. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Harris.)

Why It Matters

Every vote counts in American politics — but in certain parts of the country, a single vote can be far more important than in others. Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of states. In these swing states, the electorate is evenly split between likely Democratic and Republican voters. In the current election cycle, there are seven likely swing states that both the Trump and Harris campaigns will be targeting in the coming months.

Arizona

• Likely outcome if election were today: 48% Harris, 44% Trump, 8% alt. candidate, 0% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 49% Harris, 47% Trump, 3% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 11 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 49% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 45% favorable, 54% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

Georgia

• Likely outcome if election were today: 45% Harris, 45% Trump, 9% alt. candidate, 1% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 47% Harris, 47% Trump, 4% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 16 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 46% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

Michigan

• Likely outcome if election were today: 51% Harris, 39% Trump, 8% alt. candidate, 1% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 53% Harris, 42% Trump, 2% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 15 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

Nevada

• Likely outcome if election were today: 43% Harris, 43% Trump, 12% alt. candidate, 1% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 47% Harris, 45% Trump, 4% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 6 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 44% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

North Carolina

• Likely outcome if election were today: 44% Harris, 45% Trump, 10% alt. candidate, 0% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 46% Harris, 48% Trump, 4% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 16 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 45% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Trump

Pennsylvania

• Likely outcome if election were today: 44% Harris, 46% Trump, 9% alt. candidate, 1% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 46% Harris, 50% Trump, 2% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 19 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 44% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

Wisconsin

• Likely outcome if election were today: 44% Harris, 45% Trump, 10% alt. candidate, 0% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 49% Harris, 47% Trump, 2% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 10 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 44% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 0% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: Biden

All swing states

• Likely outcome if election were today: 45% Harris, 44% Trump, 10% alt. candidate, 0% undecided
• Likely outcome in head-to-head matchup: 48% Harris, 47% Trump, 3% undecided
• 2024 electoral college value: 93 electoral votes
• Public opinion of Harris: 45% favorable, 51% unfavorable, 4% no opinion
• Public opinion of Trump: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
• 2020 election winner: N/A

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