24/7 Wall St. Insights
- President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race has given the Democratic Party a boost in the polls.
- Vice President Harris is polling higher than Biden in every key swing state and has overtaken Trump in most of them.
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Just over two weeks after President Joe Biden ended his campaign for a second term, Vice President Kamala Harris became the official Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. While there are still nearly three months until Election Day, the Harris campaign is off to a strong start. The Democratic Party now has a greater advantage over their Republican rivals than at any time in nearly a year.
According to the latest national polling data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 48% of registered voters would support Harris if the election were today, compared to only 44% who would support the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. For context, in the days before he dropped out of the race, Biden was trailing Trump by a 6-point margin, with backing from 41% of voters, compared to Trump’s 47%.
Harris’ advantage over Trump in national polls is fueled, in part, by the electorate’s positive impressions of her. As of early August, 48% of potential voters had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to 46% who had favorable opinions of Trump. The same survey also found that only 47% of voters had unfavorable views of Harris, while 52% had unfavorable views of Trump.
While national polls are a useful gauge of voter sentiment, they are not necessarily an accurate predictor of the election’s likely outcome. Because of the electoral college system, presidential elections are often decided by voters in just a handful of closely-contested swing states. This election year, there are seven swing states that could go to either party in November: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Here is a look at how each swing state would vote if the election were today.)
Come Election Day, favorability ratings will matter far more in swing states than they do at the national level. Currently, Harris appears far more popular in every likely swing state than President Biden, and in most of them, she also holds an advantage over Trump.
Using survey data from Morning Consult, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed how Harris’ popularity compares to that of both Trump and Biden in each of the seven swing states. For every state on this list, we reviewed the share of registered voters who have favorable or unfavorable views of each of the three current or former major party candidates. Survey data was collected between July 24 and July 28, 2024.
Among the seven swing states, Harris’ favorability rating advantage over BIden ranges from 2 to 9 percentage points. Across all swing states, Harris has a collective four point advantage over Biden. However, Harris’ advantage over Trump is less decisive in nearly every state on this list.
The latest favorability polls give Trump a 1-to-2 point lead over Harris in two of the seven swing states. In the five remaining swing states, Harris’ advantage over Trump is as high as 6 percentage points, and goes as low as 1 point. Among all swing state voters, both Trump and Harris have a 45% favorability rating. Notably, swing state voters are more likely to have unfavorable views of Trump than of Harris. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Harris.)
Why It Matters
Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, and Harris’ resulting ascendency, marked an unprecedented shake-up in American politics. While risky, the move appears to have paid off for the Democratic Party. Biden’s favorability rating trails that of Trump in nearly every key swing state. Meanwhile, in every one of these same states, Harris has emerged as far a more popular candidate than Biden, and in most cases, a more popular candidate than her GOP rival.
Arizona
- Harris favorability comparison: 6 ppt. advantage over Biden; 4 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 6 ppt. advantage over Biden; 5 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 49% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 54% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 11 electoral votes
Georgia
- Harris favorability comparison: 4 ppt. advantage over Biden; 1 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 5 ppt. advantage over Biden; 3 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 46% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 16 electoral votes
Michigan
- Harris favorability comparison: 2 ppt. advantage over Biden; 6 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 7 ppt. advantage over Biden; 9 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 46% favorable, 54% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 15 electoral votes
Nevada
- Harris favorability comparison: 6 ppt. advantage over Biden; 2 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 10 ppt. advantage over Biden; 5 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 38% favorable, 60% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 44% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 6 electoral votes
North Carolina
- Harris favorability comparison: 4 ppt. advantage over Biden; 2 ppt. disadvantage to Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 8 ppt. advantage over Biden; 2 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 41% favorable, 57% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 5% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 16 electoral votes
Pennsylvania
- Harris favorability comparison: 3 ppt. advantage over Biden; 1 ppt. disadvantage to Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 4 ppt. advantage over Biden; even with Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 41% favorable, 57% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 44% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 19 electoral votes
Wisconsin
- Harris favorability comparison: 9 ppt. advantage over Biden; 3 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 11 ppt. advantage over Biden; 5 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 38% favorable, 61% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable, 3% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 44% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 0% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: 10 electoral votes
All swing states
- Harris favorability comparison: 4 ppt. advantage over Biden; even with Trump
- Harris unfavorability comparison: 5 ppt. advantage over Biden; 2 ppt. advantage over Trump
- Biden favorability ratings: 41% favorable, 56% unfavorable, 2% no opinion
- Harris favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 51% unfavorable, 4% no opinion
- Trump favorability ratings: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 1% no opinion
- 2024 electoral college value: N/A
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