24/7 Wall St. Insights

• This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
• In most of the rest of the country, including Texas, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
• Texas’ status as a Republican stronghold is evidenced, in part, by historical voting patterns in several deep-red counties.
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Election Day is less than 60 days away, and the two major party candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — are locked in a very close race. According to a New York Times analysis of national polls, Harris is currently leading her opponent, with support from 49% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%. These numbers are expected to shift in the coming weeks, but even if Harris maintains her slim advantage in the national polls, a Democratic victory is by no means guaranteed. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)

As has been the case in other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of closely contested swing states. This election cycle, the most competitive states, where both campaigns are focusing their resources, are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In these places, the candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning in November. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, Texas is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time Texas went to a Democratic candidate was in 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford, a Republican.

Texas’ status as a Republican stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 30 counties in Texas where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 85% of voters have cast a ballot for the Republican candidate.

If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver Texas and its 40 electoral votes to Trump in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

These are the most Republican counties in Texas.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Texas, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. Outcomes in states like Texas are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level.

30. Callahan County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.4% Democratic; 85.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 14.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 13,869

29. Mills County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.0% Democratic; 85.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,501

28. Kimble County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.1% Democratic; 85.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 11.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,316

27. Stephens County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.0% Democratic; 85.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 81.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 9,260

26. Coleman County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.9% Democratic; 85.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 81.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 7,808

25. Hutchinson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.5% Democratic; 85.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 11.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 87.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 20,595

24. Gaines County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.6% Democratic; 86.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 12.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 84.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 16.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 83.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 21,523

23. Hemphill County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.2% Democratic; 86.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 3,371

22. Coke County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.9% Democratic; 86.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 19.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 79.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 3,305

21. Throckmorton County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.2% Democratic; 86.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 19.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,439

20. Archer County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.0% Democratic; 86.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 82.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 8,649

19. Gray County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 11.6% Democratic; 87.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 87.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 14.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 21,272

18. Loving County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.6% Democratic; 87.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 89.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 14.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 96

17. Sherman County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.9% Democratic; 87.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 11.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,414

16. Carson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.5% Democratic; 87.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,801

15. Jack County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.9% Democratic; 88.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 83.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 8,588

14. Lipscomb County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.6% Democratic; 88.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 3,038

13. Hartley County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.1% Democratic; 88.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,369

12. Sterling County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.4% Democratic; 88.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 91.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 11.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 6.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,392

11. Wheeler County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.1% Democratic; 89.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 7.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 92.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 14.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,980

10. Shackelford County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.5% Democratic; 89.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 91.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 91.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 3,134

9. Hansford County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.1% Democratic; 89.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,270

8. Armstrong County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.1% Democratic; 89.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 93.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,912

7. Ochiltree County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.7% Democratic; 89.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 7.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 9,924

6. Oldham County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.9% Democratic; 90.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 89.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,171

5. Motley County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.5% Democratic; 90.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 7.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 92.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 92.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,223

4. Borden County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 7.9% Democratic; 90.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 3.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 95.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 686

3. Glasscock County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 7.1% Democratic; 91.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 93.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 5.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 91.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 7.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 9.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,068

2. Roberts County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 5.2% Democratic; 93.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 3.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 96.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 3.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 94.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 6.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 7.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 764

1. King County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 4.2% Democratic; 94.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 5.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 95.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 3.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 93.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 3.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 95.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 4.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 216

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