24/7 Wall St. Insights

• This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
• In most of the rest of the country, including New York, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
• New York’s status as a Democratic stronghold is evidenced, in part, by historical voting patterns in several deep-blue counties.
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With Election Day less than eight weeks out, the two major party candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — are locked in a closely contested race. Harris is leading her opponent, with support from 49% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%, according to a New York Times analysis of major national polls. These numbers are expected to shift right up until the election, but even if Harris maintains her slim advantage in the national polls, a Democratic victory is by no means guaranteed. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)

 In keeping with the pattern of other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of so-called swing, or battleground states. The most competitive states in this election cycle are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In these places, the candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning in November. As a result, both campaigns are focusing their resources in these places. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, New York is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time New York went to a Republican candidate was in 1984, when the GOP’s Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale, a Democrat.

New York’s status as a Democratic stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 20 counties in New York where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 50% of voters have cast a ballot for the Democratic candidate.

If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver New York and its 28 electoral votes to Harris in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

These are the most Democratic counties in New York.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include New York, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Outcomes in states like New York are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level.

20. Rensselaer County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 50.7% Democratic; 43.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 45.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 45.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 52.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 53.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 44.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 160,943

19. Rockland County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.3% Democratic; 45.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 50.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 48.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 52.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 337,326

18. Dutchess County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.4% Democratic; 43.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 53.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 47.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 50.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 53.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 296,467

17. Essex County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.0% Democratic; 43.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 45.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 46.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 37,314

16. Franklin County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.5% Democratic; 42.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 47.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 49.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 43.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 48.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 59.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 47,459

15. Nassau County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.7% Democratic; 44.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 53.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 53.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,389,160

14. Columbia County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.8% Democratic; 41.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 57.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 40.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 49.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 52.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 61,469

13. Schenectady County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.1% Democratic; 40.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 56.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 40.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 43.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 159,447

12. Clinton County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.4% Democratic; 40.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 46.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 59.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 79,839

11. Erie County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 55.0% Democratic; 40.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 56.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 951,232

10. Monroe County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 56.8% Democratic; 38.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 58.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 54.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 39.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 55.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 34.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 756,406

9. Ulster County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.1% Democratic; 37.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 59.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 182,153

8. Onondaga County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.4% Democratic; 37.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 58.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 53.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 40.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 33.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 472,637

7. Albany County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 62.4% Democratic; 32.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 64.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 33.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 59.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 34.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 61.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 29.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 63.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 34.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 315,041

6. Westchester County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 64.2% Democratic; 32.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 67.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 31.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 64.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 31.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 60.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 33.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 63.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 997,904

5. Tompkins County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 68.6% Democratic; 25.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 73.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 24.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 67.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 24.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 62.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 25.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 70.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 102,555

4. Queens County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 74.6% Democratic; 23.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 71.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 26.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 75.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 21.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 77.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 18.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 75.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 24.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,360,826

3. Kings County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 78.6% Democratic; 18.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 76.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 22.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 79.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 17.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 79.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 15.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 79.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 20.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,679,620

2. New York County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 85.0% Democratic; 12.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 86.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 12.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 86.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 9.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 81.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 14.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 85.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 13.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,645,867

1. Bronx County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 87.2% Democratic; 11.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 82.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 15.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 88.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 9.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 90.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 7.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 88.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 10.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,443,229

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