24/7 Wall St. Insights

• This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
• In most of the rest of the country, including New Jersey, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
• New Jersey’s status as a Democratic stronghold is evidenced, in part, by historical voting patterns in several deep-blue counties. 
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Election Day is less than 60 days away, and the two major party candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — are locked in a very close race. According to a New York Times analysis of national polls, Harris is currently leading her opponent, with support from 49% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%. These numbers are expected to shift in the coming weeks, but even if Harris maintains her slim advantage in the national polls, a Democratic victory is by no means guaranteed. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)

As has been the case in other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of closely contested swing states. This election cycle, the most competitive states, where both campaigns are focusing their resources, are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In these places, the candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning in November. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, New Jersey is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time New Jersey went to a Republican candidate was in 1988, when the GOP’s George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis, a Democrat.

New Jersey’s status as a Democratic stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 13 counties in New Jersey where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 50% of voters have cast a ballot for the Democratic candidate.

If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes to Harris in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

These are the most Democratic counties in New Jersey.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include New Jersey, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Outcomes in states like New Jersey are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level.

13. Gloucester County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.1% Democratic; 46.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 50.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 48.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 47.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 48.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 44.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 56.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 302,621

12. Atlantic County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.9% Democratic; 43.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 58.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 57.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 274,339

11. Somerset County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 55.2% Democratic; 43.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 59.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 54.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 52.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 53.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 344,978

10. Bergen County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 55.8% Democratic; 42.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 57.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 55.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 55.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 54.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 953,243

9. Cumberland County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 56.5% Democratic; 42.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 61.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 153,588

8. Burlington County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 58.2% Democratic; 40.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 59.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 39.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 55.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 40.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 58.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 461,853

7. Passaic County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 60.4% Democratic; 38.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 57.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 59.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 63.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 519,986

6. Middlesex County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 60.9% Democratic; 37.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 60.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 59.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 63.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 60.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 860,147

5. Union County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 66.1% Democratic; 32.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 67.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 31.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 66.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 30.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 66.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 64.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 572,079

4. Camden County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 66.8% Democratic; 31.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 66.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 32.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 64.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 32.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 68.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 30.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 68.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 31.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 522,581

3. Mercer County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 68.1% Democratic; 30.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 69.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 29.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 66.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 29.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 68.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 30.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 68.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 31.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 383,732

2. Hudson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 74.4% Democratic; 24.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 72.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 26.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 74.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 22.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 77.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 21.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 73.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 26.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 712,029

1. Essex County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 77.3% Democratic; 21.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 77.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 21.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 77.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 20.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 78.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 21.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 76.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 23.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 853,374

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