Politics

The Bluest Counties in Washington State

LoweStock / iStock via Getty Images

24/7 Wall St. Insights

  • This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
  • In most of the rest of the country, including Washington, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
  • Washington’s status as a Democratic stronghold is evidenced, in part, by historical voting patterns in several deep-blue counties.
  • Also: Discover the next Nvidia

With Election Day less than eight weeks out, the two major party candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — are locked in a closely contested race. Harris is leading her opponent, with support from 49% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%, according to a New York Times analysis of major national polls. These numbers are expected to shift right up until the election, but even if Harris maintains her slim advantage in the national polls, a Democratic victory is by no means guaranteed. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)

 In keeping with the pattern of other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of so-called swing, or battleground states. The most competitive states in this election cycle are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In these places, the candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning in November. As a result, both campaigns are focusing their resources in these places. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, Washington is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time Washington went to a Republican candidate was in 1984, when the GOP’s Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale, a Democrat.

Washington’s status as a Democratic stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 11 counties in Washington where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 50% of voters have cast a ballot for the Democratic candidate.

If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver Washington and its 12 electoral votes to Harris in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

These are the most Democratic counties in Washington.

Why It Matters

Photo by Scott Olson / Getty Images

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Washington, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Outcomes in states like Washington are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level.

11. Pacific County

JeffGoulden / iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 50.2% Democratic; 46.2% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 48.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 49.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 43.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 50.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.6% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 23,396

10. Skagit County

LoweStock / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.4% Democratic; 44.6% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 47.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 53.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 44.2% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 129,480

9. Island County

brewbooks / Flickr
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.8% Democratic; 44.3% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 54.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 42.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 48.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 43.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 52.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.1% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 86,510

8. Pierce County

  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.2% Democratic; 42.7% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 53.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 42.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 49.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 42.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.0% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 918,993

7. Kitsap County

SEASTOCK / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.5% Democratic; 40.8% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 56.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 39.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 54.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.9% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 275,411

6. Snohomish County

Jim Hardy / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.1% Democratic; 38.7% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 58.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 37.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 54.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.6% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 828,337

5. Thurston County

zrfphoto / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.2% Democratic; 38.4% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 57.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 38.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 53.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 58.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 59.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.2% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 294,272

4. Whatcom County

Marina_Poushkina / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 57.4% Democratic; 38.5% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 60.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 36.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 55.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 55.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.1% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 226,523

3. Jefferson County

JeffGoulden / E+ via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 65.8% Democratic; 30.3% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 69.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 28.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 62.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 29.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 64.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 66.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 31.7% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 33,006

2. San Juan County

  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 69.6% Democratic; 26.2% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 73.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 23.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 66.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 24.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 67.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 29.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 70.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.1% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 18,001

1. King County

aiisha5 / iStock via Getty Images
  • Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 71.8% Democratic; 24.9% Republican
  • Popular vote split in 2020 election: 75.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 22.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2016 election: 71.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 21.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
  • Popular vote split in 2012 election: 69.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
  • Popular vote split in 2008 election: 70.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.2% Republican (John McCain)
  • County population: 2,254,371

Want to Retire Early? Start Here (Sponsor)

Want retirement to come a few years earlier than you’d planned? Or are you ready to retire now, but want an extra set of eyes on your finances?

Now you can speak with up to 3 financial experts in your area for FREE. By simply clicking here you can begin to match with financial professionals who can help you build your plan to retire early. And the best part? The first conversation with them is free.

Click here to match with up to 3 financial pros who would be excited to help you make financial decisions.

 

Have questions about retirement or personal finance? Email us at [email protected]!

By emailing your questions to 24/7 Wall St., you agree to have them published anonymously on a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

By submitting your story, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.