24/7 Wall St. Insights
- This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
- In most of the rest of the country, including Tennessee, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
- Tennessee’s status as a Republican stronghold is evidenced, in part, by historical voting patterns in several deep-red counties.
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Election Day is less than 60 days away, and the two major party candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — are locked in a very close race. According to a New York Times analysis of national polls, Harris is currently leading her opponent, with support from 49% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%. These numbers are expected to shift in the coming weeks, but even if Harris maintains her slim advantage in the national polls, a Democratic victory is by no means guaranteed. (Here is a look at which Americans are most likely to vote for Kamala Harris.)
As has been the case in other recent presidential elections, the outcome of the 2024 race will likely come down to a handful of closely contested swing states. This election cycle, the most competitive states, where both campaigns are focusing their resources, are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In these places, the candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning in November. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)
In stark contrast to these battleground states, most other states are considered a virtual lock for either Trump or Harris. Based on current polling results, political affiliation of the electorate, and historical voting patterns, Tennessee is one of these states. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time Tennessee went to a Democratic candidate was in 1996, when Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole, a Republican.
Tennessee’s status as a Republican stronghold is driven by voters in certain parts of the state. There are 51 counties in Tennessee where, over the last four presidential elections, an average of at least 70% of voters have cast a ballot for the Republican candidate.
If historical patterns hold up this election year, these same counties will help deliver Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes to Trump in November 2024. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.
These are the most Republican counties in Tennessee.
Why It Matters
Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Tennessee, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. Outcomes in states like Tennessee are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level.
51. Carroll County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 27.6% Democratic; 70.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 21.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 77.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 74.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 34.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 64.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 28,381
50. Tipton County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 27.6% Democratic; 70.7% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 25.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 73.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 24.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 72.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 31.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 61,116
49. Blount County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.5% Democratic; 70.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 26.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 71.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 23.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 71.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 29.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 135,951
48. Weakley County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.8% Democratic; 71.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 22.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 75.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 73.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 28.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 33.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 64.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 32,946
47. Cannon County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.7% Democratic; 71.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 21.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 75.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 31.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 36.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 60.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 14,481
46. Roane County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.2% Democratic; 71.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 74.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 73.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 28.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 31.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 53,777
45. Crockett County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 27.4% Democratic; 71.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 22.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 76.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 24.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 73.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 13,955
44. Lewis County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.4% Democratic; 71.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 37.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 61.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 12,637
43. Bedford County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.5% Democratic; 71.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 75.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 74.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 50,533
42. White County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 25.1% Democratic; 73.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 35.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 27,420
41. Decatur County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.8% Democratic; 73.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 11,483
40. Sullivan County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.4% Democratic; 73.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 75.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 20.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 75.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 158,722
39. Hamblen County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.6% Democratic; 73.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 22.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 76.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 76.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 64,531
38. Dyer County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 25.0% Democratic; 73.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 20.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 78.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 21.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 76.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 36,818
37. Polk County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.5% Democratic; 73.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 17,620
36. Obion County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.6% Democratic; 73.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 30,670
35. Meigs County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.4% Democratic; 73.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 12,839
34. Pickett County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.6% Democratic; 74.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 20.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 5,042
33. Loudon County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.7% Democratic; 74.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 74.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 21.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 75.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 75.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 55,507
32. Sequatchie County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.6% Democratic; 74.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 31.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 16,065
31. Bledsoe County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.8% Democratic; 74.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 16.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 31.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 14,816
30. Cumberland County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.8% Democratic; 74.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 20.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 78.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 61,552
29. Lawrence County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.5% Democratic; 74.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 79.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 44,377
28. Mcnairy County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.0% Democratic; 74.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 25,895
27. Unicoi County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.1% Democratic; 74.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 29.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 17,845
26. Greene County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.7% Democratic; 75.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 70,399
25. Monroe County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.1% Democratic; 75.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 46,489
24. Mcminn County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 23.0% Democratic; 75.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 29.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 53,532
23. Chester County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.5% Democratic; 75.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 78.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 17,392
22. Lincoln County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.5% Democratic; 75.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 78.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 35,365
21. Campbell County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.8% Democratic; 75.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 16.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 27.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 39,397
20. Jefferson County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.3% Democratic; 75.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 79.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 55,017
19. Moore County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.7% Democratic; 75.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 16.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 79.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 29.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 6,558
18. Bradley County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.6% Democratic; 76.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 21.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 76.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 24.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 108,859
17. Henderson County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.9% Democratic; 76.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 79.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 27,845
16. Hawkins County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.5% Democratic; 76.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 16.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 57,107
15. Rhea County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.2% Democratic; 76.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 26.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 33,031
14. Sevier County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.0% Democratic; 76.7% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 20.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 77.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 78.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 21.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 25.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 98,455
13. Claiborne County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 21.6% Democratic; 76.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 17.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 29.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 32,092
12. Morgan County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.9% Democratic; 77.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 14.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 84.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 15.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 81.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 21,124
11. Carter County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.9% Democratic; 77.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 18.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 75.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 25.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 56,315
10. Cocke County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.9% Democratic; 77.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 26.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 36,186
9. Hardin County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.6% Democratic; 77.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 15.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 75.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 26,824
8. Union County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.9% Democratic; 77.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 15.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 83.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 19,860
7. Johnson County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.4% Democratic; 77.7% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 16.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 15.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 82.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 17,982
6. Grainger County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.3% Democratic; 78.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 14.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 84.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 14.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 82.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 75.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 23,648
5. Hancock County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.0% Democratic; 79.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 13.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 14.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 82.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 23.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 6,726
4. Fentress County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.2% Democratic; 79.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 13.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 85.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 15.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 82.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 18,642
3. Macon County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.2% Democratic; 79.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 13.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 85.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 14.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 83.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 25,365
2. Scott County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 17.2% Democratic; 81.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 13.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 84.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 21.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 25.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 21,917
1. Wayne County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 17.2% Democratic; 81.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 12.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 21.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 77.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 24.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 16,325
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