24/7 Wall St. Insights
- This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key battleground-states, where the election will likely be decided.
- In most of the rest of the country, including Montana, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
- However, Montana’s status as a red state is an oversimplification of a much more nuanced reality.
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The 2024 presidential race will likely hinge on voters in a handful of closely contested swing states. In these states, which include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the two major party candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)
Most states, however, are already a virtual lock for either Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, or Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. So-called blue states, like Massachusetts and Vermont, are places that Harris can reliably count on taking in November. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to handily win red states like Idaho and Wyoming.
These and other non-swing states are often seen as political monoliths, home to populations of like-minded voters with similar values and priorities. This, however, is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.
In Montana, long seen as a red state, an average of 54.6% of voters have supported the Republican candidate across the last four presidential elections. In fact, Montana has gone to the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton, a Democrat, defeated the GOP’s George H.W. Bush. Barring any unforeseen shakeup, Montana is expected to align with historical voting patterns once again in 2024 and go to Trump. (Here is a look at the 15 least popular presidents, according to Millennials.)
Despite its status as a Republican stronghold, there are several parts of the state that have consistently broken with the prevailing political ideology in recent elections. According to voting records, there are six counties in Montana where an average of at least 50% of voters have supported the Democratic candidate across the last four presidential elections. In one of these counties, nearly two-thirds of voters cast ballots for the Democratic candidate over the same four general elections.
These are the most Democratic counties in Montana. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.
Why It Matters
Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Montana, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. Still, Montana is not the partisan monolith it is often perceived to be.
6. Blaine County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.3% Democratic; 43.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 47.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 44.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 56.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 7,030
5. Big Horn County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 58.2% Democratic; 39.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 49.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 43.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 62.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 67.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 31.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 13,090
4. Missoula County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 58.4% Democratic; 37.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 60.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 36.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 53.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 37.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 61.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 118,541
3. Deer Lodge County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 58.4% Democratic; 37.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 48.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 64.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 67.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 29.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 9,435
2. Silver Bow County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 60.4% Democratic; 35.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 55.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 52.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 38.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 64.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 68.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 35,306
1. Glacier County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 65.0% Democratic; 31.7% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 64.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 33.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 61.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 31.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 65.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 31.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 68.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 29.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 13,781
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