24/7 Wall St. Insights
- This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing-states, where the election will likely be decided.
- In most of the rest of the country, including Louisiana, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
- However, Louisiana’s status as a red state is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.
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Recent presidential elections have been decided by voters in a handful of closely contested swing states — and 2024 is shaping up to be no different. This election cycle, there are seven states where both major party candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)
In most of the 43 remaining states, however, the outcome on Election Day is far more predictable. So-called blue states, like Massachusetts and Vermont, are places that Kamala Harris, a Democrat, can reliably count on taking in November. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is expected to handily win red states like Idaho and Wyoming.
These and other non-swing states are often characterized as political monoliths, home to populations of like-minded voters with similar values and priorities. This, however, is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.
In Louisiana, which has long been a red state, an average of 58.2% of voters have supported the Republican candidate across the last four presidential elections. In fact, Louisiana has gone to the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1996, when Bill Clinton, a Democrat, defeated the GOP candidate, Bob Dole. Barring any unforeseen shakeup, Louisiana is expected to align with historical voting patterns once again in 2024 and go to Trump. (Here is a look at the 15 least popular presidents, according to Millennials.)
Despite its status as a Republican stronghold, there are several parts of the state that have consistently broken with the prevailing political ideology in recent elections. According to voting records, there are 10 parishes in Louisiana where an average of at least 50% of voters have supported the Democratic candidate across the last four presidential elections. In one of these places, an average of over 80% of voters cast ballots for the Democratic candidate over the same four general elections.
These are the most Democratic parishes in Louisiana. All historical, parish-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.
Why It Matters
Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Louisiana, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. Still, Louisiana is not the partisan monolith it is often perceived to be.
10. Caddo Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 51.5% Democratic; 46.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 45.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 50.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 46.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 51.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.1% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 236,259
9. East Baton Rouge Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 52.6% Democratic; 45.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 55.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 42.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 52.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 43.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 51.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 50.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.3% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 454,369
8. Iberville Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.5% Democratic; 44.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 50.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 47.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 51.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 56.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 54.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.8% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 30,210
7. Tensas Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 53.6% Democratic; 45.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 52.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 46.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 55.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 54.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.0% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 4,127
6. St. James Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 54.4% Democratic; 44.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 51.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 47.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 53.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 45.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 57.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 55.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.2% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 20,090
5. St. Helena Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 56.9% Democratic; 41.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 54.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 44.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 56.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 41.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 59.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 57.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.8% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 10,872
4. Madison Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 58.6% Democratic; 40.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 56.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 41.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 58.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 40.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 60.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 38.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 58.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.6% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 10,028
3. St. John The Baptist Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 61.0% Democratic; 37.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 63.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 35.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 61.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 36.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 62.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 36.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 57.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 41.2% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 41,986
2. East Carroll Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 62.6% Democratic; 36.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 62.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 35.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 62.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 36.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 61.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 63.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 35.2% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 7,371
1. Orleans Parish
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 81.0% Democratic; 16.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 83.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 15.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 80.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 14.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 80.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 17.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 79.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 19.2% Republican (John McCain)
- Parish population: 380,408
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