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• This election cycle, Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key swing states, where the election will likely be decided.
• In most of the rest of the country, including Colorado, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
• However, Colorado’s status as a blue state is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.
• Also: 2 Dividend Legends to Hold Forever

The 2024 presidential race will likely hinge on voters in a handful of closely-contested swing states. In these states, which include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the two major party candidates are polling so closely that either one has a reasonable chance of winning. (This is how Trump and Harris are polling in every key swing state.)

Most states, however, are already a virtual lock for either Donald Trump, a Republican, or Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. So-called blue states, like Massachusetts and Vermont, are places that Harris can reliably count on taking in November. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to handily win red states like Idaho and Wyoming.

These and other non-swing states are often seen as political monoliths, home to populations of like-minded voters with similar values and priorities. This, however, is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.

In Colorado, now seen as a blue state, an average of 52.3% of voters have supported the Democratic candidate across the last four presidential elections. In fact, Colorado has gone to the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2004, when the GOP candidate George W. Bush defeated John Kerry, a Democrat. Barring any unforeseen shakeup, Colorado is expected to align with historical voting patterns once again in 2024 and go to Harris. (Here is a look at the 15 least popular presidents, according to Millennials.)

Despite its status as a Democratic stronghold, there are several parts of the state that have consistently broken with the prevailing political ideology in recent elections. According to voting records, there are 37 counties in Colorado where an average of at least 50% of voters have supported the Republican candidate across the last four presidential elections. In four of these counties, more than 80% of voters cast ballots for the Republican candidate over the same four general elections.

These are the most Republican counties in Colorado. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Colorado, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Still, Colorado is not the partisan monolith it is often perceived to be.

37. Las Animas County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 46.4% Democratic; 50.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 43.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 53.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 39.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 54.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 50.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 52.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 14,422

36. Grand County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 45.2% Democratic; 50.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 47.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 49.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 39.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 52.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 45.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 48.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 49.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 15,724

35. Mineral County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 41.6% Democratic; 54.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 41.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 36.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 52.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 44.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 43.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 794

34. Rio Grande County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 41.3% Democratic; 55.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 36.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 55.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 44.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 11,442

33. Weld County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 39.9% Democratic; 55.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 57.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 34.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 55.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 331,466

32. Park County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 39.6% Democratic; 56.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 32.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 58.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 41.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 55.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 17,597

31. Douglas County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.1% Democratic; 56.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 45.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 52.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 36.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 54.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 36.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 62.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 40.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 360,206

30. El Paso County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 38.9% Democratic; 56.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 42.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 53.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 38.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 39.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 730,323

29. Otero County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.1% Democratic; 56.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 37.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 60.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 34.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 58.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 44.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 18,580

28. Archuleta County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 39.4% Democratic; 56.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 40.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 34.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 58.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 39.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 57.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 42.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 13,509

27. Hinsdale County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 38.1% Democratic; 57.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 40.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 55.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 57.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 38.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 40.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 57.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 911

26. Montezuma County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 36.2% Democratic; 60.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 37.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 60.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 61.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 36.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 60.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 39.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 26,070

25. Bent County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 36.4% Democratic; 60.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 32.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 66.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 61.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 55.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 41.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 56.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,561

24. Mesa County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 32.5% Democratic; 63.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 34.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 62.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 28.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 64.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 34.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 64.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 156,131

23. Morgan County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 31.6% Democratic; 65.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 28.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 69.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 26.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 68.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 36.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 61.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 37.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 61.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 29,045

22. Teller County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 30.7% Democratic; 65.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 31.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 66.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 24.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 67.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 64.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 35.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 24,758

21. Custer County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 30.6% Democratic; 66.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 30.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 68.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 26.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 67.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 34.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,885

20. Fremont County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 29.8% Democratic; 66.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 28.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 68.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 24.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 68.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 64.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 34.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 49,107

19. Montrose County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 30.2% Democratic; 66.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 30.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 67.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 25.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 67.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 30.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 33.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 42,823

18. Crowley County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 29.4% Democratic; 67.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 25.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 72.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 70.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 35.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 61.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 35.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 62.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,782

17. Delta County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 29.1% Democratic; 67.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 30.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 67.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 24.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 69.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 31,173

16. Prowers County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 28.2% Democratic; 68.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 26.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 72.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 23.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 70.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 31.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 32.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 11,968

15. Sedgwick County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 26.5% Democratic; 70.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 20.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 77.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 74.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 31.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 65.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 34.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 63.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,391

14. Dolores County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.9% Democratic; 71.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 75.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 75.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 2,329

13. Logan County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 25.1% Democratic; 71.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 21.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 76.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 74.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 29.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 67.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 31.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 66.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 21,302

12. Elbert County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.1% Democratic; 72.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 23.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 73.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 73.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 28.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 69.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 26,457

11. Jackson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 24.0% Democratic; 72.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 20.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 77.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 19.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 73.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 25.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 30.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 68.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,440

10. Phillips County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 22.8% Democratic; 74.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 19.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 78.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 18.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 76.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 26.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 27.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,493

9. Lincoln County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.4% Democratic; 76.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 16.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 77.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 24.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 23.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,583

8. Kit Carson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 20.0% Democratic; 77.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 81.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 14.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 75.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 26.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 71.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 7,039

7. Moffat County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.5% Democratic; 77.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 17.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 80.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 13.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 81.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 21.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 26.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 70.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 13,232

6. Baca County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 18.5% Democratic; 78.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 14.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 83.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 13.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 81.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 22.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 74.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 24.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 72.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 3,496

5. Yuma County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 19.2% Democratic; 78.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 15.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 15.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 21.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 24.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 73.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 9,938

4. Rio Blanco County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 16.3% Democratic; 80.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 15.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 82.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 12.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 80.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 16.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 20.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 77.4% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 6,511

3. Washington County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 15.3% Democratic; 82.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 84.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 18.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 21.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 77.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 4,817

2. Kiowa County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 14.1% Democratic; 83.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 85.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 14.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 82.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 20.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 76.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,347

1. Cheyenne County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 14.3% Democratic; 83.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 11.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 87.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 12.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 83.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 15.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 81.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 1,726

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