Unemployment is beginning to rise once again, and with the threat of an impending recession due to Trump’s trade wars, it is likely to rise to new heights in the months and years to come. But how bad will it be compared to past presidents, and who had the worst unemployment rate during their presidency?

We looked at the data for the average unemployment rate for every president since Truman, along with the unemployment rate when they entered office and when they left. Here they are ranked in order of unemployment.

Why Are We Talking About This?

There are some people who believe that unemployment is not only necessary for capitalism to thrive but that the regular flow of unemployed people in and out of the system is the best way for our economy to work. These beliefs come from a misunderstanding of economics and a misaligned moral compass. By understanding how unemployment grows and how it impacts the economy, we can better address this issue.

Background on Unemployment

Unemployment is one of the key indicators of the health of a country’s economy, however, it is a lagging indicator, or a result, of economic events or social conditions. This means it is not a predictor of future economic conditions, though if unemployment remains high it can pose a significant hurdle to economic growth.

Many people are surprised to hear that the United States government doesn’t actually want to eliminate unemployment altogether, contrary to what politicians promise on the campaign trail. According to the U.S. government, extremely low levels of unemployment mean that the economy is “overheated” (that the economy is growing too fast and has too many open job positions and not enough people to fill them), so while government officials want to make sure that all current jobs are filled, they also want to make sure that there are enough unemployed people to fill any vacancies as they appear.

Instead of seeking no unemployment, the government works toward something known as maximum employment, which contributes to long-term rising interest rates. Essentially, keeping interest rates under control is more important than providing jobs.

The Causes of Unemployment

Unemployment tends to rise when the economy is struggling to produce enough jobs for the population, when companies close and leave thousands of people without jobs suddenly, or when the jobs available are not a match for the skills of the unemployed.

There are a number of reasons why these things might happen, including recession, the growth of monopolies, competition without regulation, weak labor protections, the replacement of workers with automation, technological advancement, government policies, natural disasters, and more.

Measuring Unemployment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its unemployment rate on the first Friday of every month, based on the Current Population Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.  

According to the BLS, the Current Population Survey is a monthly survey of thousands of U.S. households. It collects information related to employment, unemployment, and those not in the labor force and includes weekly wages, union membership, employee tenure, and more.

It is important to remember that the unemployment number doesn’t tell the whole story of an economy. As with every statistic, context is important. The unemployment rate can drop if people become discouraged by being unemployed and stop looking for jobs or are kicked off of unemployment in worker-unfriendly states. Also, if someone is self-employed, or earns money some other way, the unemployment rate might not reflect their reality.

Also, if you work more than one job, the unemployment rate does not change. As labor protections disappear and wages don’t keep up with inflation, people are forced to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. So, while the unemployment rate might stay the same, the fact that people have to work multiple jobs doesn’t mean everything is sunshine and rainbows.

#14 Lyndon B. Johnson

• Average Unemployment Rate: 4.18%
• Unemployment in first year: 5.5%
• Unemployment in last year: 3.5%

The fact that Johnson is in this position with the lowest unemployment rate is a testament to the policies instituted by John F. Kennedy and the result of New Deal policies. Johnson continued the work of Kennedy and expanded welfare, jobs programs, and worker protections which not only helped the economy expand but created one of the strongest economies in the history of the United States.

His collection of policies is known as the Great Society programs and includes job training, work-study programs, assistance for parents re-entering the economy, employer loans to hire new workers, and also introduced Medicare and Medicaid.

#13 Harry S. Truman

• Average Unemployment Rate: 4.24%
• Unemployment in first year: 1.9%
• Unemployment in last year: 4.5%

Truman had the tough job of transitioning the United States from a war economy to a peacetime economy and finding jobs for all the soldiers returning from WWII. After a mild post-war recession, Truman was largely successful in keeping the United States from disaster.

#12 Joe Biden

• Average Unemployment Rate: 4.8%
• Unemployment in first year: 3.9%
• Unemployment in last year: 4.1%

Biden had the unenviable task of undoing the damage Trump had done during his economy and returning the country to the economic growth enjoyed under Obama. Biden managed to help the economy recover from the recession that started under Trump with the fastest recovery to pre-recession in more than 40 years, and unemployment dropped from a high during Trump’s presidency to a 54-year low.

#11 Dwight D. Eisenhower

• Average Unemployment Rate: 4.93%
• Unemployment in first year: 4.5%
• Unemployment in last year: 6%

After WWII, the United States experienced three recessions during Eisenhower’s presidency, but personal incomes increased by an average of 45%, which created the foundation for one of the luckiest and most powerful generations in the history of the world: the baby boomers.

#10 Richard Nixon

• Average Unemployment Rate: 5.03%
• Unemployment in first year: 3.5%
• Unemployment in last year: 7.2%

Nixon was determined to undo the work of Kennedy and Johnson and was largely successful in doing so. He was able to destroy many worker programs and welfare benefits and weaken labor protections. His policies led to significant growth in inflation and economic stagnation, a state now known as “stagflation”.

#9 Donald Trump

• Average Unemployment Rate: 5.04%
• Unemployment in first year: 4.1%
• Unemployment in last year: 3.9%

Trump inherited an economy that was experiencing the longest period of growth in the history of the United States. His policies quickly undid that. His slow reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, and his peddling of conspiracy theories, quickly led to one of the worst recessions in recent history, and his Economic Emergency Act caused one of the largest wealth transfers from the poor and middle class to the rich.

#8 Bill Clinton

• Average Unemployment Rate: 5.17%
• Unemployment in first year: 6.5%
• Unemployment in last year: 5.7%

Clinton managed to help the economy recover from the damage done by Reagan and Bush and avoided any recessions while adding millions of jobs throughout his presidency. He is also the only recent president to create a government budget surplus.

#7 George W. Bush

• Average Unemployment Rate: 5.31%
• Unemployment in first year: 5.7%
• Unemployment in last year: 9.9%

Bush’s first actions when becoming president were to pass tax cuts for the wealthy and significantly weaken banking and financial regulations. These policies led directly to the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession, decimating the economy and the lives of millions of Americans ever since.

#6 John F. Kennedy

• Average Unemployment Rate: 5.96%
• Unemployment in first year: 6%
• Unemployment in last year: 5.5%

When Kennedy took office, the country was in the middle of its fourth recession since WWII. He increased the minimum wage, worker protections, and other welfare programs, setting the foundation for economic growth under Johnson.

#5 George H.W. Bush

• Average Unemployment Rate: 6.34%
• Unemployment in first year: 5.4%
• Unemployment in last year: 6.5%

Bush continued the gutting of regulations and worker protections that Reagan had supercharged. His policies led directly to the Savings and Loan Crisis and drove the unemployment rate up. It reached a peak of 8% in 1992, but focus on international conflict and foreign military action was Bush’s primary focus.

#4 Jimmy Carter

• Average Unemployment Rate: 6.54%
• Unemployment in first year: 6.4%
• Unemployment in last year: 8.5%

After the disastrous presidencies of Nixon and Ford, Carter was given a chance to reverse course, but the state of stagflation created by Nixon persisted. He inherited a recession that began under Ford, leading to sky-high inflation and unemployment.

#3 Barack Obama

• Average Unemployment Rate: 7.41%
• Unemployment in first year: 9.9%
• Unemployment in last year: 4.1%

Obama took over the country in the middle of the Great Recession and unemployment was hitting new records. His policies are known as Obamanomics which reduced unemployment to levels not seen in decades and created the longest-running period of economic growth in U.S. history that only ended with Trump’s policies and a severe recession.

#2 Ronald Reagan

• Average Unemployment Rate: 7.51%
• Unemployment in first year: 8.5%
• Unemployment in last year: 5.4%

If Nixon was the harbinger of destruction for the poor and middle class in the United States, Reagan was the fusion bomb. His policies led directly to the highest post-WWII unemployment rate (until 2008), these included tax cuts for the wealthy, massive deregulation, attacking union and labor protections, increasing the wealth gap, and tripling the national debt. His presidency was the beginning of the poverty, unemployment, and weak labor laws we have today.

#1 Gerald R. Ford

• Average Unemployment Rate: 7.76%
• Unemployment in first year: 7.2%
• Unemployment in last year: 6.4%

Ford took over the presidency after Nixon resigned and continued his anti-Great Society program. Even though Nixon had created the state of stagflation that Ford inherited, he did not change course. Instead, he blamed the citizens and told them to reduce spending in order to lower inflation. He cut taxes for the rich and caused inflation to increase.

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