This Will Be America's Smallest State in 2040

Population and Social Characteristics

Published: February 27, 2024 9:50 am

It is no secret that Florida, which barely had three-quarter of a million residents in 1910, jumped over the century to become the third-most populous state with over 22 million residents in 2022. Conversely, Iowa, which had about 2.2 million residents back in 1910, ranking 15 highest at the time, grew considerably less — to 3.2 million residents by 2022, ranking as the 19th smallest state today. The question now is what will happen over the next 20 years or so.

Regionally, several trends have emerged in recent years, particularly domestic migration to the South. Indeed, recently-released 2023 data from the Census show that the South — the nation’s most populous region — added over 1.4 million residents mostly through net domestic and international migration. (Also see: Cities With the Highest Influx of New Residents Last Year.)

The Midwest had a moderate population gain of 0.2% in 2023, with the Census noting a slowdown in population loss in Illinois. In the West, California, Oregon, and Hawaii continued to lose population, though of course there is no danger that California, the nation’s most populous state, will become the smallest any time soon. Similarly, while New York and Pennsylvania’s population continued to decline, they are not in danger of becoming the smallest states.

To determine which state will be America’s smallest in 2040, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Population Projections published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services. All states and the District of Columbia are ranked here by their projected 2040 population from largest to smallest.

We added snapshot information about the states to provide context to current conditions. These include gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars, which came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate figures, which came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the national value is $320,000; and median home values, which came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey.

According to the group’s projections, Vermont will be the smallest state in America in 2040, with a population of 601,865, followed closely by Wyoming and Alaska. None of the three will cross the 1 million population mark. Moreover, Vermont is one of several states projected to have fewer residents than today. On the other hand, Texas will have come very close to being the largest state in America by 2040, though California will have held on to its first-place spot.

51. California

2040 projected population: 46,467,001
2022 population: 39,029,342 — the highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $3,641.6 billion — the highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $715,900 — 2nd highest

50. Texas

2040 projected population: 40,015,913
2022 population: 30,029,572 — 2nd highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,402.1 billion — 2nd highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $275,400 — 22nd lowest

49. Florida

2040 projected population: 28,886,983
2022 population: 22,244,823 — 3rd highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,439.1 billion — 4th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $354,100 — 19th highest

48. New York

2040 projected population: 20,873,488
2022 population: 19,677,151 — 4th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,048.4 billion — 3rd highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $400,400 — 13th highest

47. Georgia

2040 projected population: 12,820,271
2022 population: 10,912,876 — 8th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $767.4 billion — 8th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $297,400 — 25th highest

46. Pennsylvania

2040 projected population: 12,809,150
2022 population: 12,972,008 — 5th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $911.8 billion — 6th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $245,500 — 18th lowest

45. North Carolina

2040 projected population: 12,658,927
2022 population: 10,698,973 — 9th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $716.0 billion — 11th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $280,600 — 23rd lowest

44. Illinois

2040 projected population: 12,397,564
2022 population: 12,582,032 — 6th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,025.7 billion — 5th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $251,600 — 19th lowest

43. Ohio

2040 projected population: 11,751,540
2022 population: 11,756,058 — 7th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $826.0 billion — 7th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $204,100 — 8th lowest

42. Michigan

2040 projected population: 9,960,115
2022 population: 10,034,118 — 10th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $622.6 billion — 14th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $224,400 — 13th lowest

41. Virginia

2040 projected population: 9,876,728
2022 population: 8,683,619 — 12th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $663.1 billion — 13th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $365,700 — 18th highest

40. Washington

2040 projected population: 9,776,126
2022 population: 7,785,786 — 13th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $738.1 billion — 10th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $569,500 — 4th highest

39. New Jersey

2040 projected population: 9,470,012
2022 population: 9,261,699 — 11th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $754.9 billion — 9th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $428,900 — 11th highest

38. Arizona

2040 projected population: 9,166,279
2022 population: 7,359,197 — 14th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $475.7 billion — 18th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $402,800 — 12th highest

37. Tennessee

2040 projected population: 7,823,662
2022 population: 7,051,339 — 15th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $485.7 billion — 16th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $284,800 — 24th lowest

36. Massachusetts

2040 projected population: 7,742,628
2022 population: 6,981,974 — 16th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $691.5 billion — 12th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $534,700 — 5th highest

35. Colorado

2040 projected population: 7,692,907
2022 population: 5,839,926 — 21st highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $491.3 billion — 15th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $531,100 — 6th highest

34. Indiana

2040 projected population: 7,095,000
2022 population: 6,833,037 — 17th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $470.3 billion — 19th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $208,700 — 10th lowest

33. Maryland

2040 projected population: 6,842,902
2022 population: 6,164,660 — 19th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $480.1 billion — 17th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $398,100 — 14th highest

32. Minnesota

2040 projected population: 6,364,886
2022 population: 5,717,184 — 22nd highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $448.0 billion — 20th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $314,600 — 23rd highest

31. Missouri

2040 projected population: 6,359,970
2022 population: 6,177,957 — 18th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.9 billion — 21st highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $221,200 — 12th lowest

30. South Carolina

2040 projected population: 6,352,502
2022 population: 5,282,634 — 23rd highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.5 billion — 24th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $254,600 — 21st lowest

29. Wisconsin

2040 projected population: 5,997,137
2022 population: 5,892,539 — 20th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.2 billion — 22nd highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $252,800 — 20th lowest

28. Oregon

2040 projected population: 5,164,041
2022 population: 4,240,137 — 25th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.3 billion — 25th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $475,600 — 8th highest

27. Louisiana

2040 projected population: 5,062,780
2022 population: 4,590,241 — 25th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $292.0 billion — 26th highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $209,200 — 11th lowest

26. Alabama

2040 projected population: 5,056,796
2022 population: 5,074,296 — 24th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $281.6 billion — 25th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $200,900 — 7th lowest

25. Kentucky

2040 projected population: 4,714,761
2022 population: 4,512,310 — 26th highest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $259.0 billion — 24th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $196,300 — 6th lowest

24. Oklahoma

2040 projected population: 4,439,038
2022 population: 4,019,800 — 24th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $242.7 billion — 22nd lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $191,700 — 4th lowest

23. Utah

2040 projected population: 4,344,339
2022 population: 3,380,800 — 22nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $256.4 billion — 23rd lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $499,500 — 7th highest

22. Nevada

2040 projected population: 4,058,371
2022 population: 3,177,772 — 20th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $222.9 billion — 20th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $434,700 — 9th highest

21. Connecticut

2040 projected population: 3,542,707
2022 population: 3,626,205 — 23rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $319.3 billion — 23rd highest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $347,200 — 20th highest

20. Iowa

2040 projected population: 3,392,783
2022 population: 3,200,517 — 21st lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $238.3 billion — 21st lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $194,600 — 5th lowest

19. Arkansas

2040 projected population: 3,217,535
2022 population: 3,045,637 — 19th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $166.0 billion — 18th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $179,800 — 3rd lowest

18. Kansas

2040 projected population: 3,032,653
2022 population: 2,937,150 — 17th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $209.3 billion — 19th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $206,600 — 9th lowest

17. Mississippi

2040 projected population: 2,962,160
2022 population: 2,940,057 — 18th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $140.0 billion — 15th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $162,500 — 2nd lowest

16. Idaho

2040 projected population: 2,227,842
2022 population: 1,939,033 — 14th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $110.9 billion — 13th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $432,500 — 10th highest

15. Nebraska

2040 projected population: 2,190,918
2022 population: 1,967,923 — 15th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $164.9 billion — 16th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $232,400 — 14th lowest

14. New Mexico

2040 projected population: 2,127,318
2022 population: 2,113,344 — 16th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $125.5 billion — 14th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

13. West Virginia

2040 projected population: 1,661,849
2022 population: 1,775,156 — 13th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $97.4 billion — 10th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $155,100 — the lowest

12. Hawaii

2040 projected population: 1,619,703
2022 population: 1,440,196 — 12th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $101.1 billion — 11th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $820,100 — the highest

11. New Hampshire

2040 projected population: 1,393,451
2022 population: 1,395,231 — 11th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $105.0 billion — 12th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $384,700 — 15th highest

10. Maine

2040 projected population: 1,326,159
2022 population: 1,385,340 — 10th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $85.8 billion — 8th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $290,600 — 25th lowest

9. Montana

2040 projected population: 1,236,304
2022 population: 1,122,867 — 9th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $67.1 billion — 4th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $366,400 — 17th highest

8. Delaware

2040 projected population: 1,164,344
2022 population: 1,018,396 — 7th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $90.2 billion — 9th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $337,200 — 21st highest

7. North Dakota

2040 projected population: 1,060,457
2022 population: 779,261 — 5th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.7 billion — 6th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

6. District of Columbia

2040 projected population: 1,058,820
2022 population: 671,803 — 3rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $165.1 billion — 17th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $711,100 — 3rd highest

5. Rhode Island

2040 projected population: 1,055,318
2022 population: 1,093,734 — 8th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.8 billion — 7th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $383,900 — 16th highest

4. South Dakota

2040 projected population: 1,043,032
2022 population: 909,824 — 6th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $68.8 billion — 5th lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $245,000 — 17th lowest

3. Alaska

2040 projected population: 819,954
2022 population: 733,583 — 4th lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $65.7 billion — 3rd lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $336,900 — 22nd highest

2. Wyoming

2040 projected population: 615,787
2022 population: 581,381 — the lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $49.1 billion — 2nd lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $292,300 — 26th highest

1. Vermont

2040 projected population: 601,865
2022 population: 647,064 — 2nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
GDP (current dollars), 2022: $40.8 billion — the lowest
Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
Median home value, 2022: $304,700 — 24th highest

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Read more: Population and Social Characteristics, 2040 population, California, census, Florida, National Population Projections, population projoection, South, state populations, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming

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