Population and Social Characteristics

States That Will Grow the Most by 2040

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Melly Alazraki
Published:

The world’s population is projected to grow by 17.3% from 2020 to 2040, according to the United Nations’ projection data. The United States population is projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate over the same time period — by 14%, according to the National Population Projections published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services.

To determine which states will contribute to the national population growth and which will detract from it, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Population Projections study. All states and the District of Columbia are ranked here by their projected population growth from 2020 to 2040 population.

We added information about the states to provide more context as to possible population growth trends. For one, past population growth, from 2000 to 2020, came from the Census Bureau’s decennial censuses. Gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars as well as five-year real GDP growth came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (the comparable national value for GDP growth is 2.2%). Median home values for each state came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey (the national median home value is $320,000).

Nine states are actually projected to lose population, five of them in the Northeast, two in the Midwest, and two in the South, including West Virginia, which is projected to lose over 7% of its population by 2040. West Virginia is also the only state that lost population from 2000 to 2020. The state had the eighth lowest annual GDP growth rate from 2017 to 2022 and the second lowest median household income and the lowest home value in 2022 — perhaps explaining the projections. (Also see: States Growing The Most Because People are Moving There: All 50 States Ranked.)

At the other end, the populations of nine states and the District of Columbia are projected to grow by more than 25% by 2040. While Texas is the state with the largest projected population growth, at more than 35%, the District of Columbia’s population will soar by nearly 45% by 2040.

51. West Virginia

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -7.78% (-140,117 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,661,849 (13th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: -0.81% (the lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $97.4 billion — 10th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.4% — 8th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $155,100 — the lowest

50. Vermont

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -3.37% (-21,003 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 601,865 (the lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 5.63% (8th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $40.8 billion — the lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.2% — 18th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $304,700 — 24th highest

49. Illinois

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -3.08% (-393,624 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 12,397,564 (8th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 3.17% (3rd lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,025.7 billion — 5th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.7% — 12th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $251,600 — 19th lowest

48. Connecticut

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -1.41% (-50,835 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 3,542,707 (21st lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 5.88% (10th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $319.3 billion — 23rd highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.2% — 7th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $347,200 — 20th highest

47. Mississippi

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.95% (-28,338 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 2,962,160 (17th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 4.10% (5th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $140.0 billion — 15th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.7% — 11th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $162,500 — 2nd lowest

46. Maine

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.94% (-12,621 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,326,159 (10th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 6.86% (12th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $85.8 billion — 8th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.8% — 10th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $290,600 — 25th lowest

45. Rhode Island

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.66% (-7,016 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,055,318 (5th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 4.68% (7th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.8 billion — 7th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.1% — 17th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $383,900 — 16th highest

44. Michigan

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.32% (-32,200 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 9,960,115 (10th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 1.40% (2nd lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $622.6 billion — 14th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.3% — 22nd lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $224,400 — 13th lowest

43. Pennsylvania

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: -0.28% (-35,735 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 12,809,150 (6th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 5.88% (9th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $911.8 billion — 6th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.5% — 9th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $245,500 — 18th lowest

42. Ohio

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 0.40% (46,278 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 11,751,540 (9th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 3.93% (4th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $826.0 billion — 7th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.1% — 16th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $204,100 — 8th lowest

41. New Mexico

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 1.34% (28,183 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 2,127,318 (14th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.41% (25th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $125.5 billion — 14th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.7% — 25th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

40. Wisconsin

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 2.74% (159,960 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 5,997,137 (23rd highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 9.88% (15th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.2 billion — 22nd highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.8% — 13th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $252,800 — 20th lowest

39. Alabama

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 2.96% (145,519 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 5,056,796 (26th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 12.98% (23rd lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $281.6 billion — 26th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.7% — 24th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $200,900 — 7th lowest

38. New Hampshire

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 3.00% (40,534 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,393,451 (11th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 11.47% (19th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $105.0 billion — 12th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.1% — 20th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $384,700 — 15th highest

37. Missouri

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 3.22% (198,499 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 6,359,970 (21st highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 10.00% (16th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.9 billion — 21st highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.6% — 25th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $221,200 — 12th lowest

36. Kansas

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 3.28% (96,440 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 3,032,653 (18th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 9.28% (14th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $209.3 billion — 19th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.0% — 14th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $206,600 — 9th lowest

35. New Jersey

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 4.20% (381,938 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 9,470,012 (13th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 10.39% (17th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $754.9 billion — 9th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.9% — 23rd highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $428,900 — 11th highest

34. New York

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 4.21% (842,337 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 20,873,488 (4th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 6.45% (11th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,048.4 billion — 3rd highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.7% — 26th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $400,400 — 13th highest

33. Kentucky

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 4.81% (216,228 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 4,714,761 (25th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 11.48% (20th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $259.0 billion — 24th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.3% — 21st lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $196,300 — 6th lowest

32. Wyoming

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 5.19% (30,407 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 615,787 (2nd lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.82% (22nd highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $49.1 billion — 2nd lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -0.2% — 5th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $292,300 — 26th highest

31. Indiana

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 5.30% (357,419 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 7,095,000 (18th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 11.60% (21st lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $470.3 billion — 19th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.1% — 22nd highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $208,700 — 10th lowest

30. Arkansas

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 5.89% (179,043 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 3,217,535 (19th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 12.65% (22nd lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $166.0 billion — 17th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.1% — 21st highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $179,800 — 3rd lowest

29. Iowa

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 6.55% (208,543 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 3,392,783 (20th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 9.02% (13th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $238.3 billion — 22nd lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.1% — 15th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $194,600 — 5th lowest

28. Louisiana

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 6.74% (319,880 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 5,062,780 (25th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 4.22% (6th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $292.0 billion — 25th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -0.7% — 2nd lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $209,200 — 11th lowest

27. Alaska

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 9.13% (68,626 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 819,954 (3rd lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.98% (21st highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $65.7 billion — 3rd lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -1.2% — the lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $336,900 — 22nd highest

26. Massachusetts

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 10.89% (760,536 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 7,742,628 (16th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 10.72% (18th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $691.5 billion — 12th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.7% — 12th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $534,700 — 5th highest

25. Oklahoma

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 10.94% (437,857 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 4,439,038 (24th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 14.74% (25th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $242.7 billion — 21st lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -0.1% — 6th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $191,700 — 4th lowest

24. Maryland

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 11.06% (681,556 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 6,842,902 (19th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.63% (24th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $480.1 billion — 16th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 0.6% — 10th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $398,100 — 14th highest

23. Hawaii

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 11.40% (165,801 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,619,703 (12th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 20.12% (19th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $101.1 billion — 11th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -0.5% — 4th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $820,100 — the highest

22. Nebraska

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 11.96% (234,042 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 2,190,918 (15th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 14.62% (24th lowest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $164.9 billion — 16th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.2% — 19th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $232,400 — 14th lowest

21. Minnesota

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 11.99% (681,221 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 6,364,886 (20th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.00% (26th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $448.0 billion — 20th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.3% — 20th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $314,600 — 23rd highest

20. Tennessee

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 14.02% (961,807 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 7,823,662 (15th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 21.47% (15th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $485.7 billion — 17th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 3.0% — 7th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $284,800 — 24th lowest

19. Virginia

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 14.12% (1,221,707 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 9,876,728 (11th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 21.94% (14th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $663.1 billion — 13th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.3% — 15th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $365,700 — 18th highest

18. California

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 14.91% (6,028,362 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 46,467,001 (the highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 16.73% (23rd highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $3,641.6 billion — the highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.9% — 8th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $715,900 — 2nd highest

17. Montana

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 15.04% (161,669 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,236,304 (9th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 20.18% (18th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $67.1 billion — 4th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.2% — 18th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $366,400 — 17th highest

16. South Dakota

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 16.97% (151,344 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,043,032 (4th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 17.46% (20th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $68.8 billion — 6th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.3% — 19th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $245,000 — 17th lowest

15. Delaware

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 17.92% (176,951 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,164,344 (8th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 26.33% (12th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $90.2 billion — 9th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.6% — 24th lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $337,200 — 21st highest

14. Georgia

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 19.53% (2,094,920 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 12,820,271 (5th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 30.85% (8th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $767.4 billion — 8th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.4% — 14th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $297,400 — 25th highest

13. North Carolina

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 19.79% (2,090,894 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 12,658,927 (7th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 29.69% (10th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $716.0 billion — 11th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.2% — 17th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $280,600 — 23rd lowest

12. Oregon

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 21.01% (896,507 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 5,164,041 (24th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 23.85% (13th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.3 billion — 24th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.5% — 13th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $475,600 — 8th highest

11. South Carolina

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 22.53% (1,167,938 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 6,352,502 (22nd highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 27.58% (11th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.5 billion — 25th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.2% — 16th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $254,600 — 21st lowest

10. Idaho

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 25.35% (450,592 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 2,227,842 (16th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 42.13% (3rd highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $110.9 billion — 13th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 4.7% — the highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $432,500 — 10th highest

9. Arizona

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 26.11% (1,897,585 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 9,166,279 (14th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 39.39% (5th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $475.7 billion — 18th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 3.9% — 4th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $402,800 — 12th highest

8. Washington

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 27.26% (2,094,307 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 9,776,126 (12th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 30.73% (9th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $738.1 billion — 10th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 4.0% — 3rd highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $569,500 — 4th highest

7. Nevada

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 30.11% (939,106 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 4,058,371 (22nd lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 55.37% (the highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $222.9 billion — 20th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.8% — 11th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $434,700 — 9th highest

6. Colorado

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 31.65% (1,849,548 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 7,692,907 (17th highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 34.23% (7th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $491.3 billion — 15th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 3.5% — 6th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $531,100 — 6th highest

5. Florida

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 32.04% (7,009,727 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 28,886,983 (3rd highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 34.76% (6th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,439.1 billion — 4th highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 3.7% — 5th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $354,100 — 19th highest

4. Utah

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 34.06% (1,103,770 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 4,344,339 (23rd lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 46.50% (2nd highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $256.4 billion — 23rd lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 4.4% — 2nd highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $499,500 — 7th highest

3. North Dakota

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 34.34% (271,055 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,060,457 (7th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 21.32% (16th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.7 billion — 5th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: -0.6% — 3rd lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

2. Texas

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 35.17% (10,411,813 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 40,015,913 (2nd highest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 39.77% (4th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,402.1 billion — 2nd highest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 2.9% — 9th highest
  • Median home value, 2022: $275,400 — 22nd lowest

1. District of Columbia

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  • Projected pop. change, 2020-2040: 44.54% (326,268 people)
  • 2040 projected population: 1,058,820 (6th lowest of 50 states and DC)
  • Population growth, 2000-2020: 20.54% (17th highest)
  • GDP (current dollars), 2022: $165.1 billion — 18th lowest
  • Annualized real GDP growth rate, 2017-2022: 1.4% — 23rd lowest
  • Median home value, 2022: $711,100 — 3rd highest

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Read more: Population and Social Characteristics, 2040 population, census, DC, Demographics Research Group, Florida, GDP, North Dakota, population, population growth, Texas, Utah

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