A recent study found that nearly half of the over 31,000 cities in the United States will face some sort of population decline by the end of the century. Of course, the flip side of that is that about half of the cities will face population growth.
While some of the population decline in half the cities may be due to natural causes (less births and more deaths), a part of it will also be due to residents leaving and choosing to live elsewhere — perhaps with better economic conditions and more services — where they can more easily raise families. Inevitably, those leaving will contribute to population growth in the places where they settle down. (Also see: Cities That Will Empty Out By End of Century.)
Indeed, over 1,300 cities and towns of all sizes will in fact double in population by the end of the century, according to the study published in Nature, Depopulation and associated challenges for US cities by 2100. To estimate future trends, the study considered population projections under five scenarios, from environmentally friendly development to fossil-fueled development.
To find America’s large cities that will explode in population by the end of the century, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the study, listing here the 31 cities with 2020 population above 100,000 that are projected to at least double in population by 2100 — under the middle of the road scenario, which includes intermediate challenges. We also added socioeconomic data — median household income, unemployment rate, bachelor’s degree attainment rate — from the Census Bureau’s 5-year estimates 2022 American Community Survey.
Large cities in only 13 states comprise the list. By far Texas has the most cities on the list, at 14, with Utah and Washington state next at three each. The South region is represented with 17 cities, the West with nine, and the Midwest with five. No large cities in the Northeast are projected to double in population by 2100.
Many of the cities on the list are affluent cities, and almost all have a better jobs market. Of the 31 large cities on the list, 17 have a higher median household income than the national median (eight have median income above $100,000); 27 have a lower unemployment rate than the national rate; and 23 have a higher bachelor’s degree attainment rate than the national figure.
A large number of the cities are already part of greater metropolitan areas, such as The Woodlands, Sugar Land, and Pearland, which are part of the Houston metro area, or Denton, which is at the edge of Dallas, and Round Rock, which is near Austin. Similarly, Surprise is in the outskirts of Phoenix.
The largest city on the list is Houston, followed by Dallas. They are projected to grow in population by 119% and 103%, respectively. Houston will grow from 2.3 million residents in 202 to over 5 million by 2100, and Dallas from 1.3 million to 2.7 million. Such population explosions can present significant challenges to government, infrastructure, and services.
While we list here only cities with over 100,000 in population as of 2020, the study projects even greater population growths among some smaller cities. For example, Williston, North Dakota is projected to grow from 29,160 residents in 2020 to 217,148 residents by 2100 — a 640% swelling. Similarly, Dickinson, North Dakota, and Heber, Utah, are projected to face a population growth of 424% (from 25,679 to 135,483) and 323% (from 16,856 to 70,201), respectively.
Why This Matters
While population trend scenarios for 2100 may sound far off, they do provide possible trajectories to consider both for Americans who want to move and for governments. Cities that have expanding populations have to deal with socioeconomic, environmental, and infrastructure challenges to accommodate the ever growing population. Residents of such cities may encounter increased traffic congestion, disruptions in some services that become overloaded serving so many people, and other challenges. Such cities need to plan ahead and find ways to address population growth challenges.
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