For the first time since 2020, California’s population grew in 2023. The most populous state added just over 67,000 people in 2023, or 0.17%. While the growth rate is very small, it ends a three-year trend of significant population loss — nearly half a million residents from 2019 to 2022, according to Census data — and officials hope it marks the first change back to normal population trend.

Looking 26 years into the future, can California indeed maintain its top spot as the most populous state? It is no secret, after all, that Florida and Texas have been making significant population gains.

To determine which state will be America’s largest in 2050, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Population Projections published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services and updated just this July 1. The 25 largest states are ranked here by their projected 2050 population from largest to smallest.

We added snapshot information about the states to provide perhaps some context as to possible population growth trends. Gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate figures came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; and median home values came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey — the national value is $320,000.

While the top four states are projected to keep their ranking, some are growing faster than others. Meanwhile, Georgia jumps to the fifth spot from eighth today, with a near 20% population growth from 2020, unseating Pennsylvania, which is projected to drop from fifth to sixth most populous, with a nearly 3% population decline. (Also see: This Will Be America’s Smallest State in 2040.)

Similarly, North Carolina, with a 17% projected population growth from 2020 to 2050, is projected to move from ninth largest to seventh largest. Illinois, meanwhile, is projected to have a 9% population decline and move from sixth most populous to eighth most populous, and Ohio, with a near 3% population decline, from seventh to ninth.

Why are we covering this

Population projections are important for people and governments as they often determine attraction of a place, policies, and more. For example, in many health care areas, including Medicaid, the size and makeup of a projected population can determine current and future policy and budget. In politics, some states can stand to lose congressional seats, while others gain them. In economics, environment, infrastructure — many policies and plans depend on what the population is projected to be.

25. Oregon

• 2050 projected population: 5,099,791 (+20.4% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 4,240,137 — 25th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $297.3 billion — 25th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.2% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $475,600 — 8th highest

24. Alabama

• 2050 projected population: 5,263,069 (+4.8% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 5,074,296 — 24th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $281.6 billion — 25th lowest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.0% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $200,900 — 7th lowest

23. Wisconsin

• 2050 projected population: 5,938,601 (+0.8% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 5,892,539 — 20th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $396.2 billion — 22nd highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 2.9% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $252,800 — 20th lowest

22. Missouri

• 2050 projected population: 6,061,168 (-1.5% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 6,177,957 — 18th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $396.9 billion — 21st highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.5% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $221,200 — 12th lowest

21. South Carolina

• 2050 projected population: 6,169,078 (+20.5% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 5,282,634 — 23rd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $297.5 billion — 24th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.4% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $254,600 — 21st lowest

20. Minnesota

• 2050 projected population: 6,370,014 (+11.6% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 5,717,184 — 22nd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $448.0 billion — 20th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 2.8% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $314,600 — 23rd highest

19. Maryland

• 2050 projected population: 6,791,286 (+9.9% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 6,164,660 — 19th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $480.1 billion — 17th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 2.7% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $398,100 — 14th highest

18. Indiana

• 2050 projected population: 7,022,739 (+3.5% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 6,833,037 — 17th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $470.3 billion — 19th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.7% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $208,700 — 10th lowest

17. Colorado

• 2050 projected population: 7,690,559 (+33.2% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 5,839,926 — 21st highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $491.3 billion — 15th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.8% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $531,100 — 6th highest

16. Massachusetts

• 2050 projected population: 7,802,759 (+11.0% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 6,981,974 — 16th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $691.5 billion — 12th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.0% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $534,700 — 5th highest

15. Tennessee

• 2050 projected population: 7,973,147 (+15.4% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 7,051,339 — 15th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $485.7 billion — 16th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.0% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $284,800 — 24th lowest

14. Arizona

• 2050 projected population: 8,881,012 (+24.2% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 7,359,197 — 14th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $475.7 billion — 18th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.4% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $402,800 — 12th highest

13. Virginia

• 2050 projected population: 9,705,706 (+12.4% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 8,683,619 — 12th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $663.1 billion — 13th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 2.7% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $365,700 — 18th highest

12. Michigan

• 2050 projected population: 9,710,293 (-3.6% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 10,034,118 — 10th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $622.6 billion — 14th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.9% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $224,400 — 13th lowest

11. New Jersey

• 2050 projected population: 9,867,242 (+6.2% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 9,261,699 — 11th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $754.9 billion — 9th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.6% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $428,900 — 11th highest

10. Washington

• 2050 projected population: 10,210,211 (+32.5% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 7,785,786 — 13th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $738.1 billion — 10th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.9% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $569,500 — 4th highest

9. Ohio

• 2050 projected population: 11,467,712 (-2.8% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 11,756,058 — 7th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $826.0 billion — 7th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.2% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $204,100 — 8th lowest

8. Illinois

• 2050 projected population: 11,659,474 (-9.0% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 12,582,032 — 6th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $1,025.7 billion — 5th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.9% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $251,600 — 19th lowest

7. North Carolina

• 2050 projected population: 12,219,917 (+17.1% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 10,698,973 — 9th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $716.0 billion — 11th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.6% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $280,600 — 23rd lowest

6. Pennsylvania

• 2050 projected population: 12,665,983 (-2.6% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 12,972,008 — 5th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $911.8 billion — 6th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.4% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $245,500 — 18th lowest

5. Georgia

• 2050 projected population: 12,883,056 (+20.3% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 10,912,876 — 8th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $767.4 billion — 8th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.2% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $297,400 — 25th highest

4. New York

• 2050 projected population: 20,686,329 (+2.4% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 19,677,151 — 4th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $2,048.4 billion — 3rd highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.2% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $400,400 — 13th highest

3. Florida

• 2050 projected population: 28,521,380 (+32.4% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 22,244,823 — 3rd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $1,439.1 billion — 4th highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 3.3% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $354,100 — 19th highest

2. Texas

• 2050 projected population: 39,842,850 (+36.7% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 30,029,572 — 2nd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $2,402.1 billion — 2nd highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 4.0% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $275,400 — 22nd lowest

1. California

• 2050 projected population: 42,520,492 (+7.5% from 2020)
• 2022 population: 39,029,342 — the highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2023: $3,641.6 billion — the highest
• Unemployment rate, May 2024: 5.2% — compared to 4.0% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $715,900 — 2nd highest

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