Population and Social Characteristics
This State's Population Is Vanishing Before Our Eyes
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24/7 Wall St. Insights
- The smallest state in terms of population is Wyoming, which has about 580,000 residents
- Vermont is predicted to have the smallest population of all states by 2040
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In terms of population, the smallest state in the U.S. is Wyoming, home to roughly 580,000 people. Wyoming has been the least populous state for decades, stealing the title from Alaska in the 1990 census. Wyoming’s small population is due to several factors, such as harsh climate, economic infrastructure, and geographical layout. Historical factors are also at play: when Americans began migrating west, Wyoming was viewed as a transitional area of sorts. Plenty moved through the region, but not many stuck around. Though it has seen a steady increase in population over the decades, this rugged Midwest state still continues to win the smallest-state award.
Which state will have the smallest population about 15 years from now will depend on a series of factors, including things like migration patterns and birth numbers. Since 2010, Vermont has failed to bring in enough new residents to offset the number of people moving to other states. Census data reveals more people die in Vermont than are born there. Additionally, children under 15 make up a very small share of the state’s population, smaller than in any other U.S. state. A quarter of Vermont residents will be 65 or older by the year 2030. For these reasons, Vermont is predicted to steal the ‘tiniest population’ crown from Wyoming by 2040.
To better understand future trends, 24/7 Wall St. identified the state that will be America’s smallest in 2040. To get our data, we reviewed the National Population Projections, published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services. We’ve included every state and the District of Columbia, ranked by projected 2040 population from largest to smallest. Furthermore, we included supplemental information about each state, such as gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars (per the Bureau of Economic Analysis), seasonally adjusted unemployment rate figures (per the Bureau of Labor Statistics), and median home values from the Census Bureau 2022 American Community Survey.
Though there are currently six states with population totals under one million today, by 2040 this number will dwindle to only three. Experts say that by 2040, neither Vermont, Wyoming, nor Alaska’s populations will reach over one million.
Why This Matters
Population changes affect a state’s tax revenue, housing market, economy, and workforce. When a population shifts, the need for healthcare, education, and other public services also shifts. By looking at the trends on a state-by-state basis, we can begin to understand which states are luring in more residents, and which states are driving them away.
51. California
- 2040 projected population: 46,467,001
- 2022 population: 39,029,342 — the highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $3,641.6 billion — the highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $715,900 — 2nd highest
50. Texas
- 2040 projected population: 40,015,913
- 2022 population: 30,029,572 — 2nd highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,402.1 billion — 2nd highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $275,400 — 22nd lowest
49. Florida
- 2040 projected population: 28,886,983
- 2022 population: 22,244,823 — 3rd highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,439.1 billion — 4th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $354,100 — 19th highest
48. New York
- 2040 projected population: 20,873,488
- 2022 population: 19,677,151 — 4th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,048.4 billion — 3rd highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $400,400 — 13th highest
47. Georgia
- 2040 projected population: 12,820,271
- 2022 population: 10,912,876 — 8th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $767.4 billion — 8th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $297,400 — 25th highest
46. Pennsylvania
- 2040 projected population: 12,809,150
- 2022 population: 12,972,008 — 5th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $911.8 billion — 6th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $245,500 — 18th lowest
45. North Carolina
- 2040 projected population: 12,658,927
- 2022 population: 10,698,973 — 9th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $716.0 billion — 11th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $280,600 — 23rd lowest
44. Illinois
- 2040 projected population: 12,397,564
- 2022 population: 12,582,032 — 6th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,025.7 billion — 5th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $251,600 — 19th lowest
43. Ohio
- 2040 projected population: 11,751,540
- 2022 population: 11,756,058 — 7th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $826.0 billion — 7th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $204,100 — 8th lowest
42. Michigan
- 2040 projected population: 9,960,115
- 2022 population: 10,034,118 — 10th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $622.6 billion — 14th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $224,400 — 13th lowest
41. Virginia
- 2040 projected population: 9,876,728
- 2022 population: 8,683,619 — 12th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $663.1 billion — 13th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $365,700 — 18th highest
40. Washington
- 2040 projected population: 9,776,126
- 2022 population: 7,785,786 — 13th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $738.1 billion — 10th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $569,500 — 4th highest
39. New Jersey
- 2040 projected population: 9,470,012
- 2022 population: 9,261,699 — 11th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $754.9 billion — 9th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $428,900 — 11th highest
38. Arizona
- 2040 projected population: 9,166,279
- 2022 population: 7,359,197 — 14th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $475.7 billion — 18th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $402,800 — 12th highest
37. Tennessee
- 2040 projected population: 7,823,662
- 2022 population: 7,051,339 — 15th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $485.7 billion — 16th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $284,800 — 24th lowest
36. Massachusetts
- 2040 projected population: 7,742,628
- 2022 population: 6,981,974 — 16th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $691.5 billion — 12th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $534,700 — 5th highest
35. Colorado
- 2040 projected population: 7,692,907
- 2022 population: 5,839,926 — 21st highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $491.3 billion — 15th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $531,100 — 6th highest
34. Indiana
- 2040 projected population: 7,095,000
- 2022 population: 6,833,037 — 17th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $470.3 billion — 19th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $208,700 — 10th lowest
33. Maryland
- 2040 projected population: 6,842,902
- 2022 population: 6,164,660 — 19th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $480.1 billion — 17th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $398,100 — 14th highest
32. Minnesota
- 2040 projected population: 6,364,886
- 2022 population: 5,717,184 — 22nd highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $448.0 billion — 20th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $314,600 — 23rd highest
31. Missouri
- 2040 projected population: 6,359,970
- 2022 population: 6,177,957 — 18th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.9 billion — 21st highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $221,200 — 12th lowest
30. South Carolina
- 2040 projected population: 6,352,502
- 2022 population: 5,282,634 — 23rd highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.5 billion — 24th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $254,600 — 21st lowest
29. Wisconsin
- 2040 projected population: 5,997,137
- 2022 population: 5,892,539 — 20th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.2 billion — 22nd highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $252,800 — 20th lowest
28. Oregon
- 2040 projected population: 5,164,041
- 2022 population: 4,240,137 — 25th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.3 billion — 25th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $475,600 — 8th highest
27. Louisiana
- 2040 projected population: 5,062,780
- 2022 population: 4,590,241 — 25th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $292.0 billion — 26th highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $209,200 — 11th lowest
26. Alabama
- 2040 projected population: 5,056,796
- 2022 population: 5,074,296 — 24th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $281.6 billion — 25th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $200,900 — 7th lowest
25. Kentucky
- 2040 projected population: 4,714,761
- 2022 population: 4,512,310 — 26th highest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $259.0 billion — 24th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $196,300 — 6th lowest
24. Oklahoma
- 2040 projected population: 4,439,038
- 2022 population: 4,019,800 — 24th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $242.7 billion — 22nd lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $191,700 — 4th lowest
23. Utah
- 2040 projected population: 4,344,339
- 2022 population: 3,380,800 — 22nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $256.4 billion — 23rd lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $499,500 — 7th highest
22. Nevada
- 2040 projected population: 4,058,371
- 2022 population: 3,177,772 — 20th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $222.9 billion — 20th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $434,700 — 9th highest
21. Connecticut
- 2040 projected population: 3,542,707
- 2022 population: 3,626,205 — 23rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $319.3 billion — 23rd highest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $347,200 — 20th highest
20. Iowa
- 2040 projected population: 3,392,783
- 2022 population: 3,200,517 — 21st lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $238.3 billion — 21st lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $194,600 — 5th lowest
19. Arkansas
- 2040 projected population: 3,217,535
- 2022 population: 3,045,637 — 19th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $166.0 billion — 18th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $179,800 — 3rd lowest
18. Kansas
- 2040 projected population: 3,032,653
- 2022 population: 2,937,150 — 17th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $209.3 billion — 19th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $206,600 — 9th lowest
17. Mississippi
- 2040 projected population: 2,962,160
- 2022 population: 2,940,057 — 18th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $140.0 billion — 15th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $162,500 — 2nd lowest
16. Idaho
- 2040 projected population: 2,227,842
- 2022 population: 1,939,033 — 14th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $110.9 billion — 13th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $432,500 — 10th highest
15. Nebraska
- 2040 projected population: 2,190,918
- 2022 population: 1,967,923 — 15th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $164.9 billion — 16th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $232,400 — 14th lowest
14. New Mexico
- 2040 projected population: 2,127,318
- 2022 population: 2,113,344 — 16th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $125.5 billion — 14th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest
13. West Virginia
- 2040 projected population: 1,661,849
- 2022 population: 1,775,156 — 13th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $97.4 billion — 10th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $155,100 — the lowest
12. Hawaii
- 2040 projected population: 1,619,703
- 2022 population: 1,440,196 — 12th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $101.1 billion — 11th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $820,100 — the highest
11. New Hampshire
- 2040 projected population: 1,393,451
- 2022 population: 1,395,231 — 11th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $105.0 billion — 12th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $384,700 — 15th highest
10. Maine
- 2040 projected population: 1,326,159
- 2022 population: 1,385,340 — 10th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $85.8 billion — 8th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $290,600 — 25th lowest
9. Montana
- 2040 projected population: 1,236,304
- 2022 population: 1,122,867 — 9th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $67.1 billion — 4th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $366,400 — 17th highest
8. Delaware
- 2040 projected population: 1,164,344
- 2022 population: 1,018,396 — 7th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $90.2 billion — 9th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $337,200 — 21st highest
7. North Dakota
- 2040 projected population: 1,060,457
- 2022 population: 779,261 — 5th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.7 billion — 6th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest
6. District of Columbia
- 2040 projected population: 1,058,820
- 2022 population: 671,803 — 3rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $165.1 billion — 17th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $711,100 — 3rd highest
5. Rhode Island
- 2040 projected population: 1,055,318
- 2022 population: 1,093,734 — 8th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.8 billion — 7th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $383,900 — 16th highest
4. South Dakota
- 2040 projected population: 1,043,032
- 2022 population: 909,824 — 6th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $68.8 billion — 5th lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $245,000 — 17th lowest
3. Alaska
- 2040 projected population: 819,954
- 2022 population: 733,583 — 4th lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $65.7 billion — 3rd lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $336,900 — 22nd highest
2. Wyoming
- 2040 projected population: 615,787
- 2022 population: 581,381 — the lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $49.1 billion — 2nd lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $292,300 — 26th highest
1. Vermont
- 2040 projected population: 601,865
- 2022 population: 647,064 — 2nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
- GDP (current dollars), 2022: $40.8 billion — the lowest
- Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
- Median home value, 2022: $304,700 — 24th highest
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