Wal-Mart (WMT): Better Gauge Of The Economy Than GDP

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
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While most retailers are simply trying to stay out of Chapter 11, Wal-Mart posted an extraordinary quarter. It was even more impressive because, as the world’s largest retailer, it must fight the law of large numbers making each percentage point of growth more dear.

Wal-Mart’s (WMT) numbers showed that the recession is in full bloom and the management as much as said so. Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009 was approximately $94.1 billion, an increase of 10.2% over $85.4 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2008. Net income for the quarter was $3.022 billion, an increase of 6.9%.

Lee Scott,distant heir to founder Sam Walton, explained it best by saying "Our business is even more relevant to our customers today, given the current economic pressures."

It would be unfair to underestimate the role that international sales from countries like Mexico and China played. Revenue from outside the US was up 22% to almost $24 billion. That cannot mask the fact that sales in America were higher by 7%. Operating income at the company’s core Wal-Mart franchise was up 10%, better than the figure for the entire company.

There is no way that Wal-Mart could post numbers of this magnitude without taking business from other retailers. Those retailers are clearly not able to hit the low price points that Wal-Mart can.

The world’s largest retailer has become a reverse indication of overall GDP. When times are bad, it attracts huge numbers of people who need a bargain to get by.

With inflation running through the economy and a recession hurting most of the country, Wal-Mart may be in for a good, long run.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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