Most data on holiday shopping activity show that e-commerce spending is up 4% to 5% compared to last year. Store-based sales are flat based on most industry information.
America’s Research Group believes that the numbers showing positive, or at least moderate sales are flawed. In its new study with UBS, the polling firm reports that “Of those consumers not shopping, an overwhelming number (95.1%) said they will wait to December 24 to get more items on sale.” The survey was conducted by phone and covered 1,000 calls on December 5th and 6th
“The shopping season is a repeat of last year,” says C. Britt Beemer, CEO and founder of ARG. “More shoppers are waiting for better deals and stores just aren’t giving them big enough discounts.” Beemer says that consumers want 60% to 70% off in order to buy.
Those big discounts may never come. Retailers who bet their balance sheets last holiday season do not have the same access to credit that they two years ago. Many chains are being exceedingly careful about inventory. Discounts that will cause large losses on sales are simply not an option for retailers with weak balance sheets
Holiday sales that are as poor as they were last year will almost lead to more store closings and retail sales lay-offs, the same kind that Christmas last year caused in early 2009. Low holiday retail activity and pending job cuts are not what economists who see a rebound in GDP next year expect.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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