Wall St. has voted on how strong holiday sales will be this year. Shares of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Target (NYSE: TGT) are down year to date. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Sears (NYSE: SHLD) are barely higher than the S&P 500, which is flat for the period. The stock price of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) is an exception to the trend. It is up by 20% since the start of January, although it has sold off recently.
The National Retail Federation expects sales for November and December to be 2.8% higher. A number of industry observers believe that means some retailers will add jobs. Reuters recently reported that expectation is an illusion, fostered by hiring at several large retailers, including Toys ‘R’ Us and Macy’s (NYSE: M). Many smaller retailers may add no workers at all. The retail employment trend is a strong indication that a holiday sales recovery is already dead. The industry cannot afford that. There have been too many lean years over the past four.
Holiday sales and job additions are a good overall proxy for how the economy will fare in the first months of 2012. Consumers, worried that next year the U.S. economy will be like it was in 2011 will save what they can or pay down debt. GDP, up an unexpected 2.5% in the third quarter, will slow again.
Investor pessimism is built into the stocks of large retailers. If investors are right, early 2012 will be another hard period for America’s consumers.
Douglas A. McIntyre
The Average American Has No Idea How Much Money You Can Make Today (Sponsor)
The last few years made people forget how much banks and CD’s can pay. Meanwhile, interest rates have spiked and many can afford to pay you much more, but most are keeping yields low and hoping you won’t notice.
But there is good news. To win qualified customers, some accounts are paying almost 10x the national average! That’s an incredible way to keep your money safe and earn more at the same time. Our top pick for high yield savings accounts includes other benefits as well. You can earn up to 3.80% with a Checking & Savings Account today Sign up and get up to $300 with direct deposit. No account fees. FDIC Insured.
Click here to see how much more you could be earning on your savings today. It takes just a few minutes to open an account to make your money work for you.
Our top pick for high yield savings accounts includes other benefits as well. You can earn up to 4.00% with a Checking & Savings Account from Sofi. Sign up and get up to $300 with direct deposit. No account fees. FDIC Insured.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Latest from 24/7
Our expert who first called NVIDIA in 2009 is predicting 2025 will see a historic AI breakthrough.
You can follow him investing $500,000 of his own money on our top AI stocks for free.