The holiday shopping period has begun with a level of success that few experts expected. U.S. consumers apparently have ignored the threat of a financial catastrophe in Europe, ongoing unemployment, a slowing U.S. economy and the lack of an increase in real wages that is nearly 10 years old. The consumer is clearly taking a personal financial risk, and there are enough potential threats to this confidence that the trend might not make it to the start of 2012.

Online research firm Comscore reported that e-commerce activity rose 14% from the start of November until the 26, and 26% on Black Friday. That brought industry revenue to $12.7 billion for the period. Comscore predicted the trend would continue and that online holiday expenditures will reach $37.6 billion, up 15% over 2010. Part of the reason for the surge, the research firm said, was “These projected growth rates reflect the significant channel shift we’re witnessing from offline retail as an increasing number of consumers rely on the online channel for initial browsing, price comparisons and completing transactions.”

The bricks-and-mortar stores more than held their own, however. ShopperTrak reported yesterday that “Black Friday sales increased 6.6 percent over the same day last year.  This represents $11.40 billion in retail purchases and the biggest dollar amount ever spent during the day. Retail foot-traffic rose accordingly, increasing by 5.1 percent over Black Friday 2010.”

Even anecdotal evidence showed sharp improvements in sales. Macy’s (NYSE: M) CEO Terry Lundgren said that nearly 10,000 stood outside the retailers flagship store before the doors were opened for Black Friday. Toys “R” Us chairman and chief executive Gerry Storch said tablet PC sales helped create increased activity at his firm’s stores and online. Several retail CEOs echoed Lundgren’s and Storch’s comments.

The optimism that must have driven sales for the Thanksgiving weekend could disappear almost immediately. It would not take much, if the past is any indication. National unemployment figures for November are due in a week. The sovereign debt situation in Europe is bad enough that American stock markets could be driven down 10%, as happened in July and August. News of a troubled market often affects even those who do not hold stocks and mutual funds. The market is, in many people’s minds, a proxy for the economy.

It is unusual for a holiday sales trend to reverse itself in midstream. Strength that begun in early November typically remains until the start of the new year. Patterns may shift slightly. Shoppers may wait for mid-December sales, but they still spend at a level that those who shopped earlier in the year did.

Americans must feel that they will have the money to pay for what they buy today when the bills come in January. That feeling could change in a few days. It would only require one piece of bad news to tip it.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.