With the focus on holiday shopping, now is a good time to have a look at potential upside gains in specialty retail stocks. We’ve looked at five stocks that we’ve been watching in the sector, and some of the news is good and some is not. The stocks we’ve included are Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS), Office Max Inc. (NYSE: OMX), Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), and PetsMart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM).

Over the past four weeks, both Staples and Office Max have seen their target prices drop. At Staples, the median target price fell from $19.00 to $18.00. The share price today is $14.40, indicating a potential upside of 25%. At Office Max, the median price target fell from $7.50 to $6.75, indicating a potential upside of 42.1%. At its current earnings multiple of about 8, Office Max could be a contender, but the company is closing stores and only expects revenue to be flat with last fiscal year. The company’s price/book ratio is also a very low 0.62, but again, that could be deceptive.

Staples’ median target price has fallen further below its 52-week high in the past month and its price/book ratio is pretty high at 1.40. The company reported weak sales and earnings, and like all the office supply stores, traffic is down. The trend is particularly bad in Europe. Staples may hit its revenue and profit targets for the quarter and the year, but that’s only because the estimates have come down.

Barnes & Noble missed revenue and profit estimates yesterday, but the stock continues to rise because sales of the company’s Nook e-readers and tablets have risen sharply (85%, to $200 million) and investors believe the trade-off for book sales is a positive sign. B&N’s median target price rose from $15.50 to $20.00 over the past four weeks, and at today’s price of $16.15, the potential upside is 23.8%. Nook sales account for just over 10% of the company’s total revenue, so unless sales continue to climb at last quarter’s rate, B&N’s chances of fulfilling its promise are pretty slim. The company’s forward P/E is 37.42 and the price/book ratio is 1.09, which could lead one to believe that the stock may be approaching an overbought status. The company’s share price has risen by about 25% in the past 12 months.

Sotheby’s median price target fell from $51.00 to $45.00, and at a current price of $32.14, the stock’s potential upside is 40%. That figure would be cause for more joy if Sotheby’s share price hadn’t fallen by -7% in the past month and if the target price were still about the 52-week high. Sotheby’s forward P/E is 10.79, but its price/book ratio is 2.47. For the fiscal year ending this month, Sotheby’s EPS estimate has fallen by -$0.23 in the past 90 days. This does not look like a company about to bust its target price.

PetsMart has a median target price of $53.50, a rise of $3.50 over the past four weeks. At today’s share price of $48.95, the potential upside for the stock is 9.3%. The company beat third-quarter earnings and revenue expectations and boosted its fourth-quarter EPS estimate to $0.85-$0.89. Shares put up a new 52-week high of $49.03 today. The company’s forward P/E is 16.36, and its price/book ratio is a fairly high 4.66. But sales and profits have been growing, and the stock price is up about 25% this year.

Share price gains have fallen about equally on B&N and PetsMart in the past year. The other stocks we’ve looked at have lost between -25% and -75%, with Office Max the biggest loser. B&N also boasts a 5.7% dividend yield, compared with just 1.2% for PetsMart.

PetsMart’s 9.3% potential upside is within reach as long as the store sticks to its business, while B&N’s potential gain of nearly 24% depends on selling boatloads of its Nook devices, which is possible and  perhaps even likely. But as that happens B&N cannibalizes its old business and that may be hard to make up quickly.

Paul Ausick

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