After Earnings: Can OpenTable Sell Its "Value Stock" Case?

Retail

Published: February 7, 2013 4:53 pm

OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) already had its major run higher, followed by a flame-out on its stock chart almost two years ago. The online reservation services is seeing some additional softness in its share price after reporting its fourth quarter and full 2012 earnings. Revenue grew by 16% to $43.0 million in the fourth quarter, above the $42.54 million consensus from Thomson Reuters. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.46 came in above the $0.43 consensus.

OpenTable also grew its North American segment: seated diners by 21% over a year earlier to 29.9 million and its installed restaurant base grew 15% to 19,801 stores; sales in North America were up 16% to $36.7 million. OpenTable had some issues in the international segment because of a relaunch and some restaurants not migrating to the new platform. Installed restaurant base as of December 31, 2012 totaled 7,716 and the installed restaurant base represented a 62% increase if you eliminate those changes. International seated diners rose by 35% to 3.0 million and sales rose 13% to $6.3 million.

Here is the guidance for Q1 and Fiscal 2013:

On a consolidated basis in the first quarter it estimates revenue to be in the range of $44.7 million to $46.1 million and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.39 to $0.44. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.46 EPS and $45.82 million in revenue.
On a consolidated basis for all of 2013 the company estimates revenue to be in the range of $186.1 million to $193.1 million and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.79 to $1.96. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.92 EPS and $189.21 million in revenue.

After closing down over 2% at $49.31 against a 52-week range of $33.53 to $55.95, its market cap is $1.12 billion. So here is the question: Is OpenTable finally “cheap” as a stock? The after-hours first had shares lower on the guidance but now shares are higher. The stock’s closing price is projecting its valuations at almost 6-times sales and about 25-times earnings on a rounded basis. The 52-week range is one thing but this used to be a $100 stock… make that $115 at the blow-off top back in April of 2011.

Shares are now up over 4% at $51.00 in the after-hours trading session. Maybe the continued growth is finally good enough for some sort of value investors after all.

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