This coming Thursday, the relative handful of retailers that still report monthly same-store sales are quite likely to tell us that business was not so good in October. Beginning Tuesday we are likely to hear that third-quarter earnings for specialty retailers were less than dazzling as well.
That is the takeaway from a research note on specialty retailers by analysts at Sterne Agee. The firm said that October traffic was slower than September traffic, and that several major retailers like Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) have already lowered guidance for the third quarter, blaming warm weather and new iPhones for the drop in sales.
Here’s a look at what Sterne Agee has to say about several retailers.
Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE: SIG) is a Buy-rated stock at Sterne Agee, based on expectations that the company’s core Kay and Jared jewelry stores will continue to perform well and that integration of Zales will continue smoothly. Signet does not report monthly sales, and third-quarter results are not due until November 25. In Sterne Agee’s sentiment index, Signet is the top-ranked specialty retailer.
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The parent of Victoria’s Secret, Pink, Bath & Body Works, La Senza and Henri Bendel stores, L Brands Inc. (NYSE: LB) is expected to post October same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%. The company will report sales on Thursday and Sterne Agee expects a guidance update as well. L Brands reports third-quarter results on November 19. The company is rated a Buy at Sterne Agee.
Kate Spade & Co. (NYSE: KATE) reports third-quarter results on Thursday, and Sterne Agee is looking for same-store sales to slow down from the 30% growth posted in the second quarter. Spade reports its results on Thursday and is expected to guide margins for 2016 down while pushing revenue guidance higher. This is another of Sterne Agee’s Buy-rated stocks
Gap reports October sales on Thursday and third-quarter results on November 20. The stock is rated Neutral at Sterne Agee, and the analysts note that the company missed plan numbers in both August and September. Markdowns have been as high as 75% and Sterne Agee says that Gap “does not have room to cut SG&A to make numbers anymore.”
Another stock that Sterne Agee is cautious on for the third quarter is Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), another of its Buy-rated stocks. The analysts note that more than half of the company sales are made overseas, as well as recent turmoil such as in Hong Kong and a stronger dollar. Sterne Agee maintains its Buy rating on the stock due to longer term positives like the U.S. turnaround, stronger gross margins and bullish view on jewelry in general. The company reports earnings on November 25.
Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is another Neutral-rated stock that Sterne Agee believes is at risk for current fiscal year EPS guidance. Fossil’s organic growth was roughly flat in the first half of this year, and that may be leading to an inventory overhang. Worse, though, is the deceleration in the domestic watch sector. Although Sterne Agee does not say this, the announcement of an Apple Watch could be influencing watch sales as consumers wait to see what Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) delivers next year.
Other specialty retailers besides Signet, Kate Spade, Tiffany and L Brands that are Buy-rated at Sterne Agee are Kohl’s and Sally’s Beauty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SBH).
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