Retail

Is Under Armour Becoming the Apple of Apparel?

Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) is perhaps acting like the perfect company, in the perfect industry, at the perfect time. Everything seems to be going right for the company. If the younger generation is flocking to Under Armour over Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) as so much of the scuttle and reports would indicate, it seems fair to ask if Under Armour is in the same position that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was in a decade ago versus Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

The fight between Apple and Microsoft, or Apple and the personal computer (PC), offers a great lesson here in a comparison between Nike and Under Armour. There also needs to be some temperance on just how extreme that comparison can be made. Despite the rise of the Mac generation and despite the rise of iTunes, the iPhone and the iPad, businesses and consumers still buy PCs in droves.

A lesson here is simple: Under Armour may be growing and may continue to grow, but it may not be the death of Nike. In fact, there may be room for both Under Armour and Nike to keep growing.

Nike is now one of the fewer additions to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That has to stand for at least something. Also, despite currency headwinds in Nike’s latest earnings report the company had a very impressive figure for future orders, once you back out the currency headwinds. Now keep in mind that the market cap of Nike is $85 billion. The company has double-digit earnings growth expected, and revenue growth is expected to be 10% in 2015 and then another 6% or so in 2016, to end up at $32.4 billion. Nike is also valued at 25 times expected earnings for a year ahead.

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Under Armour has now reached an $18 billion market valuation. Earnings are also growing in the double digits here, but the key difference is revenue growth. Sales are expected to rise over 23% in 2015 and another 23% in 2016, to end up at almost $4.7 billion. A key difference here versus Nike is that Under Armour’s valuation is all the way up at 59 times expected 2016 earnings, and that is at a December year-end versus May year-end for Nike.

Do current Under Armour investors care that the company pays no dividend? Almost certainly not. Those investors are buying growth and brand dominance. The Under Armour pact with Jordan Spieth is just one thing the company has going for it. If brands know one thing about advertising and sports legends, particularly emerging sports legends, it is that they cannot have all their eggs in one basket. Think about this: how many people are sitting around talking about which companies are endorsing Tiger Woods now?

So, what would a value investor review signal for Under Armour versus Nike? The forward price to earnings (P/E) multiples are one thing. Nike is valued at about 2.6 times next year’s expected revenue, while Under Armour is valued almost 4 times next year’s revenue — with the reminder that Under Armour’s fiscal year ends a full seven months later, so the numbers would be even wider than the 3.9:2.6 currently.

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Here is how analysts viewed Nike after its latest earnings report, and the current analyst target of $107.92 is more than $8 higher than the current share price. Under Armour’s share price of $85.11 is over $5 higher than the consensus analyst target price of $79.62. Now take the highest analyst price targets on each, and Under Armour would have almost 14% implied upside to the highest price target of $97, while Nike would have almost 23% implied upside to its highest analyst price target of $122.

It is without a doubt that Under Armour is on a serious roll here. It is also without a doubt that it is growing massively. Under Armour’s 2012 revenue was only $1.8 billion, versus more than $23 billion for Nike in the same fiscal year. The reality, particularly considering what investors are having to pay for each company relative to each other, is that the investing base is going to have to hope that there are no hiccups at all in Under Armour. Its last earnings report left room for bulls and bears alike. Another issue is that clothing and apparel is a game full of gambles, where one or two botched seasons can wreck a company’s growth prospects for longer than ad deals last.

As far as how there is room for both Under Armour and for Nike, don’t forget how many brands are out there in each sporting goods niche. Maybe it is really Adidas/Reebok that needs to be trembling, or the myriad second and third tier brands that really need to be worried.

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Lastly, what about relative performance? Both Nike and Under Armour shares are close to all-time highs. The difference is that Under Armour’s stock price is up 25% year-to-date and up 66% over the trailing 12 months, versus Nike’s gain of 3.5% year-to-date and 38% gain over the past 12 months.

Nike and Under Armour sound very different in their capstone comments around each earnings report. Under Armour sounds robust. Nike sounds like other highly established businesses that discuss economic outlooks. Still, both are talking about growth. The relative comments are as follows:

Nike:

Our strong third quarter results show that our growth strategies are working, even under challenging macroeconomic conditions. Nike has the ability to deliver consistent shareholder value due to the strength of our brand, our relentless commitment to innovation and our powerful portfolio that allows us to invest in the opportunities with the highest potential for growth as well as manage risk.

Under Armour:

We are incredibly proud of recording our 19th consecutive quarter of over 20% net revenue growth, including achieving over 30% growth in each quarter of 2014, demonstrating the unending opportunity we see across our five key growth drivers. … [Under Armour] nearly doubled our International revenues with acceleration in both Europe and China as well as new market strategies in South America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Our Footwear business grew 44% as we solidified and took market share in our core on-field businesses, and debuted our award-winning SpeedForm platform.

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The bets are in that Under Armour is where Apple was a decade ago against the PC. After all, smaller companies can grow revenues much faster than large companies, particularly over five years and particularly once the law of large numbers is considered. That being said, there still seems to be room for both Nike and Under Armour to grow in the years ahead. The key difference is what investors have to pay for that growth.

 

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