Just one year ago, Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) tanked on its quarterly earnings that it released in May of 2014. This held back shares for nearly six months. No doubt that Whole Foods shareholders are hoping that John Mackey and Walter Robb III do not have a repeat performance this quarter.
Whole Foods will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings Wednesday after the markets close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.43 in earnings per share (EPS) on $3.70 billion in revenue. In the same quarter of the previous year, the retailer posted EPS of $0.38 and $3.32 billion in revenue.
Recently, Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating on Whole Foods, but the firm’s Rupesh Parikh lowered the official price target back down to $57 from $65 in the call. Parikh sees a lack of comparable store sales upside dampening the potential for a positive catalyst.
The long and short of the matter is that the firm thinks customers could see only a modest relief rally, but the firm could see shares falling to the mid $40s, based on historical trough levels on a relative price-to-earnings basis. This left Oppenheimer’s official stance being that investors should wait to add to positions after the quarter rather than jumping ahead of the earnings report.
Additional risks to consider were as follows:
- Valuations have come in for leading U.S.-based retailers with a more significant correction for grocers.
- The $57 price target was brought down based on a high-20s multiple applied to the 2016 earnings forecast.
- The firm does not expect comparable sales improvement every quarter.
- Kroger price cuts in natural and organic are a near-term risk for the entire specialty food retailing group.
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However, it is worth mentioning that when it comes to selling organic and mostly natural foods, the king of the market is Whole Foods. Considering consumer trends toward organic foods, millennials are more likely to shop at stores like Whole Foods. At the same time, millennials might think the same thing as the rest of the age groups in calling it “Whole Paycheck.”
Shares of Whole Foods were relatively flat at $47.52 just after the opening bell on Wednesday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $55.80 and a 52-week trading range of $36.08 to $57.57.
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