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Ahead of another set of earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), at least one thing is already clear. Wall Street has turned against the nation’s largest retailer, and with a vengeance.
Shares of Wal-Mart have fallen 8% this year, against an advance of 3% for the S&P 500. The stock price of much-maligned Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), owner of Sears and Kmart, has risen 27% over that period. However, Sears CEO Eddie Lampert has been toying with the retailer’s real estate holdings, which may draw investors into the shares, even if the company’s traditional sources of revenue have fallen. Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), the primary rival of Wal-Mart, has shares that at least have matched the S&P 500. J.C. Penney Co. Inc.’s (NYSE: JCP) results continue to be ugly, and barely enough to prove any turnaround, but its shares are up 32% so far this year.
Wal-Mart management can make the case, with ease, that it is by far the largest retailer in America by sales, by employees and, based on an analysis by 24/7 Wall St., of the market share of large retailers, by foot traffic.
The traditional reasoning about Wal-Mart’s trouble is that it is losing ground to smaller retailers, and that Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has permanently wounded it. Wal-Mart has to play catch up with Amazon as it tries to offer a bundle of free shipping and other services. Its new $50 all free shipping for the year, as described by Tech Crunch, is supposed to take business from Amazon Prime. However, Prime offers a huge selection of video on demand content, so the Wal-Mart service is not really competitive.
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Wall Street has started to believe that size does not represent enough leverage for Walmart to hold tight to its leadership. Low prices for merchandise do not draw customers like they used to. Perhaps this is because “low prices” are available elsewhere and in volume. Wal-Mart’s labor problems have stolen some of the attention from the core issue of whether it continues to be a financial success.
Wall Street has turned against Wal-Mart. Its next set of earnings should move the stock one way or the other. However, even good results may not convince investors that good results are sustainable.
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