Second only to the November-December holiday season in importance, back-to-school shopping has long been a critical time of year for many retailers. This year, however, shopping for school supplies for the K through 12 crowd is not a priority for nearly 40% of U.S. families. And depending on which survey you’re looking at, spending is either going to be up, down, or flat.

Research conducted by Deloitte indicated that 38% of American families don’t feel pressure to hit the stores for school supplies and clothes because they can buy supplies year-round now and have no particular reason to stock up. A third expect to complete their shopping after school begins, an increase of 5 points compared with last year. Deloitte predicts sales for K-12 and college students will average $1,747 per family this year, essentially flat with last year’s spending average of $1,766.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said earlier this month that the average spending per family on K-12 students would be $630 this year and the spending on college students would total $899. Last year families with children in the K-12 grades spent an average of $669.

A third survey, from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), indicates that 67% of families plan to spend more this year, with school supplies and clothes/shoes on three-quarters of families’ shopping lists. According to the ICSC, 88% of back-to-school shoppers will visit a mall or shopping center. More than 75% of families will shop at discount stores for back-to-school items while 38% will shop at department stores, 29% will shop at online-only retailers, and 25% will shop at apparel stores.

Deloitte’s retail sector head said:

Consumers are sending a message to retailers that says the back-to-school shopping season just isn’t that important anymore–and that could dramatically disrupt an industry that traditionally relies on this defined period for a significant portion of annual sales. The question for retailers is how to capture the sales that may not fall exclusively in July or August, but increasingly spread throughout the year. If consumers are content with the items they already have, the two-for-one promotion may no longer get them to the register. Instead, retailers will have to provide something more meaningful or exclusive that fits their customers’ needs when they are ready to buy.

Deloitte also noted that 39% of consumers plan to reuse last year’s items when possible. That will weigh on sales, but the good news for retailers is that coupon clipping has declined 14% since 2011 and consumers’ intentions to buy lower priced items has dropped by 11%.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.