Retail

Target Opens Down After Earnings, but the Decline Won't Last

Rafi Farber

Published: November 18, 2015 10:05 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 5:04 pm

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) can consider it flattering that after reporting profit and sales growth as well as an increase in customer traffic and increased earnings guidance, shares opened broadly down Wednesday. Investors seemingly expected more from the retailer. Looking back at the past few years, though, signs are that the decline won’t last long.

Looking at Target’s long-term chart shows that shares have had good first quarters for four of the past six years. With Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) struggling, there is an added reason for investors not keen on bottom picking and looking to park money at a retailer to choose Target.

New CEO Brian Cornell speaks like a classic overachiever, railing against his own company’s performance last quarter and using the word “unacceptable” several times, clearly expecting more from his team. Forefront on Cornell’s mind is improvement in Target’s supply chain and keeping essentials in stock. Not a bad problem to have really — not enough product and too many customers to handle. Cornell’s tone fits well with Target’s price movement post-earnings as investors seem to agree — they expect more.

Financially, there is little to complain about with Target. Debt to equity is below 30% and though top-line growth hasn’t materialized lately, expenses have been remarkably low this year. Particularly notable last year is that operating expenses were actually lowest during holiday season, pretty much the opposite of what one would expect. Selling and administrative expenses post-holidays 2014 accounted for 23% of annual expenses, while revenues that quarter accounted for 27% of the total.

It is a rare occurrence indeed when a retailer heavily reliant on holiday sales can effectively reduce its operating costs within the very season it is relying on for the largest portion of its revenues. Usually, in a bid to maximize revenue, retailers will be more liberal with their spending in order to show more impressive sales numbers.

If Target can repeat that performance this year, come Thanksgiving through New Year’s, then Wednesday morning’s move down will be quickly erased. Target investors are expecting more, its new CEO is trying to deliver and post-holiday season, it looks like Target will trade higher.

Shares were down 3.9% at $70.05 at last check. The consensus analyst price target is $84.91, and the 52-week trading range is $66.50 to $85.81.

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