Why Key Analyst Sees CarMax Bouncing Over 30% Off Its Lows

CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX), like all the broad markets, is currently posting a loss for 2016. But this might prove to be a buying opportunity, one key analyst believes. The stock recently dropped to a 52-week low and is down about 28% as well. Many analysts are calling this a “stock pickers” market, and investors could stand to bottom fish stocks near their lows as opposed to looking for a bottom on the market as a whole.

Oppenheimer lifted its rating on CarMax to Outperform and establishing a $60 target price for the shares. For a long while, the firm has looked at this company as one of the most promising new unit growth and market share stories in retail.

CarMax has struggled lately as the combination of dislocations in the truck/SUV market and more challenging comparisons have weighed on used car unit comp growth at the chain. Shares are now more than 35% off their all-time high (achieved in April) and trading at their lowest level since October 2014. Although headwinds persist, Oppenheimer is optimistic that shares now largely seem to discount for nearer term challenges and that used car sales growth at CarMax should rebound as 2016 progresses.

The firm slightly cut its earnings estimates to $0.66 per share from $0.69 in the fiscal fourth quarter, while the consensus calls for $0.71. In terms of fiscal 2016 and 2017, Oppenheimer is looking for $3.30 and $3.65 per share, respectively, compared to the consensus estimates of $3.39 and $3.71.
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Overall, Oppenheimer is optimistic that over the next several quarters, as pricing for late model used vehicles in the truck/SUV market normalizes and as comparisons ease, used car unit comps at CarMax will rebound to levels more reflective of the underlying strength of the company’s business model.

More than $1.5 billion remains outstanding on the buyback authorization that the company introduced in October 2014. The company tends to repurchase stock more aggressively on dips. By fiscal 2017 (February 2018), cumulative buybacks since 2014 should account for about 20% of earnings.

Shares of CarMax were trading up 1.2% at $47.54 Tuesday morning, with a consensus analyst price target of $65.27 and a 52-week trading range of $46.18 to $75.40.