Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is probably the most incredible U.S. corporate success story of the past 25 years — maybe even the last 100 years. Some on Wall Street have predicted the company will enter everything from pharmaceutical distribution to the world of artificial intelligence. The technology mega-giant rules retail and is the leader in the cloud computing, and the recent purchase of Whole Foods Market thrust it right into the brick-and-mortar retail business.
While the thought of Amazon world domination, especially in retail, is prevalent, the fact is the company can’t rule and control everything. A new Jefferies research report makes the case that certain softline retailers have the ability to fend off Amazon’s massive reach, and the report noted this:
We identified 7 key factors that should help companies build a protective moat around their businesses, and then also identified 4 key ‘offensive’ initiatives that should help further thwart Amazon’s rise. Based on this framework, we think the most insulated companies include (1) Strong brands that are destinations for the consumer with differentiated fashion product, as well as handbag retailers, and (2) Those that are best executing in marrying the digital and physical retail experience.
Four companies that are Buy rated at Jefferies are all good candidates to be able to ward off Amazon’s massive capabilities, and all are solid additions to long-term growth portfolios.
American Eagle Outfitters
This top retail stock had been acting much better since bouncing off lows posted in late August. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is a leading global specialty retailer offering high-quality, on-trend clothing, accessories and personal care products at affordable prices under its American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie brands.
The company operates more than 1,000 stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom, and it ships to 81 countries worldwide through its websites. American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie merchandise also is available at 119 international stores operated by licensees in 18 countries.
Top Wall Street analysts have highlighted that the company offers among the clothing sector’s best denim execution and on-trend fashion, and those positives could drive traffic upside, as well as be long-term drivers of international, Aerie, digital and omni inventory. Good execution, solid inventory control and the trend for old-school denim fashions are all positives.
Jefferies is very positive on the shares and noted this:
American Eagle Outfitters boasts a high e-commerce penetration (well over 20% of sales) and has been seeing strong growth in this channel. Importantly, e-commerce is not dilutive to the overall business, so the company should be able to maintain, if not improve profitability as it further leverages its omni channel capabilities.
Investors are paid a solid 3.10% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the shares is $18, and the Wall Street consensus target is $14.06. Shares traded early Wednesday at $16.15.
Gap
This top retailer could be poised to benefit from the extra consumer spending in a growing economy. Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) sells private label merchandise through three main retail concepts: The Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic, along with smaller growth vehicles Athleta and Intermix.
The company also sells its products through its company websites. Most of its international stores are Gap stores, concentrated in Western Europe (France, United Kingdom), Japan, China and Canada. The company has over 3,500 stores worldwide.
Gap has been red-hot lately, and the Jefferies report noted this:
The company is well-positioned in the shifting retail landscape, as its e-commerce business is actually accretive and the company has already done the heavy lifting on omni-channel integration. They were among the first to market with find in store, reserve in store, ship from store, and order in store, and are amidst the rollout of the Buy online, pickup in-store or BOPIS, which should help drive even higher profitability online.
Gap shareholders receive a 2.76% dividend. Jefferies has a $41 price target. The posted consensus target is $28.68, but the stock traded at $33.50 Wednesday morning.
Tiffany
This company has benefited big time from the wealth effect of the rising stock market. Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is a specialty retailer selling jewelry (92% of sales), watches, leather goods, crystal, china, silverware and accessories. The company sells primarily through its fleet of retail stores and the internet. The Tiffany brand is associated with high-end offerings and is well-known around the world.
The company is expected to post very solid comparisons for the fourth quarter, and the Jefferies analysts had this to say in the report:
Tiffany’s main competitive advantage is the strength of its brand and its differentiated offering, which makes it a destination for the consumer and cannot be easily replicated by Amazon or another e-commerce player. While the company’s e commerce penetration is small at 6% (largely due to its category and high price point versus apparel) they have made the necessary investments in the omnichannel experience, offering BOPIS and locate/reserve in store, plus free shipping/returns with relatively quick (4-5 day) shipping.
Investors in this luxury retailing leader are paid a 2.1% dividend. The $110 Jefferies price objective compares with the consensus target price of $98.79. The shares were last seen trading at $95.10.
Urban Outfitters
This is another top company poised to fight the good fight with Amazon, and it has been mentioned by some as a takeover candidate. Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is a specialty retailer and wholesaler of unique private and third-party apparel, accessories and home goods. The company has three main concepts, Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie and Free People, as well as Terrain and BHLDN.
Many on Wall Street feel that the company’s store base is underpenetrated and has ample room to grow for the foreseeable future. The Jefferies analysts added this in their research:
Urban Outfitters boasts near industry-leading e-commerce penetration (~35%) and continues to see strong growth off this large base. The channel is highly profitable and margin accretive, and URBN has been well ahead of the game in its investment spend, foreseeing the rapid consumer migration online and choosing to invest heavily in the channel years ago, at a time when other retailers were just dipping their toes in the water. They were one of the first to pilot ‘ship from store’ and are fully operational on BOPIS. Further, they boast three healthy brands in UO, Anthro, and Free People, and their high fashion content cannot be easily replicated, particularly at the Anthro brand.
Jeffries has set its price target at $34. The posted consensus target is $28.94, but the stock was trading at $32.40 on last look.
Four top retailers that have fought and can continue to fight against any encroachment on their turf from Amazon. While there is always a possibility of some share loss, these established players should remain in the game for years to come.
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