Retail

Earnings Previews: Best Buy, Dick's, Dollar Tree

Paul Ausick

Published: November 19, 2021 12:24 pm

Of the three companies we previewed earlier this week that reported quarterly results after markets closed Thursday, Applied Materials missed estimates on both revenue and profits while Workday and Ross Stores beat on both. Shoe retailer Foot Locker beat both estimates as well Friday morning.

There are no earnings reports due out after markets close Friday and just one of note, Meten, on tap for Monday morning. While not a well-known stock, Meten has offered educational and tutoring services in China for more than a decade. The company was slammed twice this year by government policy changes and has pivoted to a blockchain/crypto-mining effort. More than 94 million shares of Meten stock are traded every day.

Earlier on Friday, we previewed one stock reporting late Monday and two reporting before markets open on Tuesday: Medtronic, Xpeng and Zoom Video.

The Thanksgiving holiday essentially means next week has just three days. Yet, there are several earnings of note in those three days. Here are three retailers also set to report quarterly results first thing on Tuesday.

Best Buy

Over the past 12 months, shares of technology retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) have added more than 18% to their price. Since October 1, the shares have added more than 29%, accounting for more than all the share price growth over the past year. The stock has been on a roller-coaster ride this week that has left the share price virtually flat. Strong retail sales reported earlier this week, along with strong earnings from other retailers, should be good signs for Best Buy as the holiday shopping season enters its critical days.

Analysts have mixed sentiments on the stock. Of 29 brokerages covering the company, 12 rate the shares a Hold and 14 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. At a recent price of around $136.30 a share, the stock is priced above its median price target of $134.50. Based on a high price target of $157, the upside potential is just over 15%.

For the company’s fiscal 2022 third-quarter revenue, analysts are forecasting $11.59 billion, which would be down 2.2% sequentially and 2.2% lower year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $1.94, nearly 35% lower sequentially and down 5.8% year over year. For the full fiscal year, current estimates call for EPS of $9.99, up 26%, on sales of $51.76 billion, up 9.5%.

Best Buy’s share price to earnings multiple for fiscal 2022 is 13.7. For fiscal 2023, the multiple to estimated EPS of $9.48 is 14.4, and for 2024, it is 13.7 times estimated EPS of $10.00. The stock’s 52-week range is $95.93 to $136.78. Best Buy pays an annual dividend of $2.80 (yield of 2.06%). Total shareholder return for the past year is 17.7%.

Sporting gear retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) has posted a share price gain of almost 175% over the past 12 months, including an increase of 163% to date this year.

Earlier this month, Dick’s announced a so-called connected partnership with Nike. The deal allows the two companies’ customers to connect the two rewards programs and shop for an expanded selection of Nike gear on Dick’s mobile app. The day the deal was signed, Dick’s stock dropped a couple of points and Nike stock added a couple. Dick’s 12-month share price growth is about five times Nike’s share price growth in the same period.

Analyst sentiment trends toward bullish, with 13 of 26 ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. Another 12 analysts rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $139.20, the upside potential based on a median price target of $147.50 is 6%. At the high target of $180, the upside potential is more than 29%.

For the company’s third quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts are expecting revenue of $2.48 billion, down 24% sequentially but up 2.9% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $2.01, down 60% sequentially and flat year over year. For the fiscal year ending in January, EPS are currently forecast to come in at $13.22, up 116%, on sales of $11.79 billion, up 23%.

Dick’s share price to earnings multiple for fiscal 2022 is 10.6. For fiscal 2023, the multiple to estimated EPS of $9.51 is 14.7, and for 2024, it is 14.0 times estimated EPS of $9.96. The stock’s 52-week range is $51.51 to $147.39. Dick’s pays an annual dividend of $1.75 (yield of 1.3%). Total shareholder return for the past year is just over 165%.

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Dollar Tree

Off-price retailer Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) has added almost 40% to its share price over the past 12 months. Since bottoming out in late September, the stock is up about 59%. Rival Dollar General is up about 8.4% over the past year and up 3.2% since late September.

After markets closed last Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that an activist investor had acquired a stake of $1.8 billion in the company and is prepared to force the company to do something to bolster its share price. It seems to be working, as the share price is up almost 20% so far this week.

Analysts remain in a wait-and-see mode, however. Of 27 brokerages covering the stock, 16 rate the stock at Hold, and only nine have Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $134.50, the stock has outrun its median price target of $111. Based on a high price target of $175, the upside potential is 30%.

Third-quarter fiscal 2022 revenue is forecast at $6.42 billion, up 1.3% sequentially and 2.3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.95, down 22.6% sequentially and nearly 32% year over year. For the full fiscal year, analysts expect Dollar Tree to post EPS of $5.56, down 1.6%, on sales of $26.27 billion, up 3%.

Dollar Tree’s share price to earnings multiple for fiscal 2022 is 24.2. For fiscal 2023, the multiple to estimated EPS of $6.29 is 21.4, and for 2024, it is 18.0 times estimated EPS of $7.49. The stock’s 52-week range is $84.26 to $135.59. The high was posted Friday morning. Dollar Tree does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is just over 42%.