Small Business Optimism Falls, Optimism and Employment Sag

The National Federation of Independent Business has released its survey results for the month of September and the month was described as yet another month of low expectations and pessimism for the small-business community. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 0.1 points to a reading of 92.8.

The synopsis was very pessimistic: “Hiring Plans Plunge: Small Business Optimism Drops 0.1, Expectations for the Future Remain Low.”

It noted, “The recession-level reading was pulled down by a deterioration in labor market indicators, with job creation plans plunging 6 points, job openings falling one point and more firms reporting decreases in employment than those reporting increases in employment.”

One thing noted was that the election is just weeks away and its outcomes would have vastly divergent policy implications. On this the report said, “Everyone is waiting to see what happens, especially small-business owners who have a lot at stake in the outcome — which could mean higher marginal tax rates and more deficits, OR lower marginal tax rates and less government.” This matters more than in past elections as well as small-business owners say that the political climate is a reason not to expand. They also said that the economy is only keeping up with population growth. Owners are said to be in maintenance mode and spending only where necessary and are not hiring.

The good news is that the outlook for expansion did improve slightly with those viewing the current period as a “good time to expand” rising three points. The number of owners expecting business conditions to be better in six months gaining four points. While these readings improved, they are still below historical averages.

JON C. OGG