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Can Shake Shack Turn a Profit in Japan?

Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) announced that it, together with its Japanese licensee, will open the first-ever Shake Shack in Tokyo in 2016. However, investors do not appear to be taking a liking to this expansion. The big question is whether this expansion is too far, too fast.

Shake Shack is partnering with Sazaby League, the very same company and leadership that brought Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Japan and grew the brand into one of its largest international markets to date.

Starbucks Japan was a joint venture between Starbucks and Sazaby League that operated Starbucks-branded retail stores in Japan. Starbucks stores were represented as having performed consistently despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges in Japan.

Keep in mind that Starbucks has a literal empire of stores across the world, and that it has a tested and proven business model, in terms of years of growth in the market. Shake Shack is still in its infancy in terms of being a public company, and its current reach in terms of its stores pales in comparison to that of Starbucks.

ALSO READ: Starbucks: Can Everybody Make Money on Fast Food?

Randy Garutti, CEO of Shake Shack, said:

We are absolutely thrilled to bring our first Shack to Tokyo. For years, a tremendous amount of fans have asked us when we would come to Japan. We are incredibly honored to partner with SAZABY LEAGUE, a world-class, proven operator with over forty years of expertise including tremendous success leading Starbucks’ first international venture. We are truly humbled to become a part of Japan’s thriving food scene.

It is worth noting that shares hit post-IPO lows in Tuesday’s trading session, and that these lows have subtly been trending down.

Following news of the expansion, the stock promptly dropped 3.4% to $39.31 midday in Tuesday’s trading session. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $21.00 and a post-IPO trading range of $38.63 to $52.50.

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