Over the course of the last few years, there has been a noticeable downward trend in for-profit education. Some may be self-inflicted, but some of the decline has been an outright attack on for-profit education by Washington DC. What is interesting is that online-only universities have been suffering, even as traditional universities are beginning to transfer their courses to an online classroom or at least offer many courses online. Apollo Education Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) is no exception to the pressure. After all, it is the industry’s biggest face due to its University of Phoenix.
The company reported its fiscal second quarter financial results as a $0.10 loss per share on $578.6 million in revenue compared to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of a net loss per share of $0.16 on $584.61 million in revenue. In the same period last year, Apollo reported $0.28 in earnings per share on $679.06 million in revenue.
The online educator gave guidance on the fiscal third quarter as net revenue in the range of $690 million to $705 million (versus $740.8 million expected), and it expects around $85 million to $95 million in operating income.
For all of 2015, Apollo expects to bring in between $2.63 billion and $2.68 billion in revenue, as well as operating income in the range of $200 million to $230 million. Thomson Reuters has a consensus estimate of $2.73 billion.
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities totaled $759.8 million currently, compared to $1.4 billion at the end of August 2014. The decrease was primarily attributable to $595.4 million of net payments on borrowings, $43.3 million for capital expenditures, and $38.7 million of share repurchases.
As far as its enrollment, its second quarter 2015 University of Phoenix New Degreed Enrollment was 28,300 and Degreed Enrollment was 213,800. Overall New Degreed enrollment dropped 12.9% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, and Degreed enrollment dropped 14.6% at the same time.
Greg Cappelli, CEO of Apollo, said:
While we faced challenges in the second quarter, we believe Apollo Education Group has the right long-term strategy in place. In a time of unprecedented change in the higher education industry, we are focused on enhancing outcomes through a deep understanding of student and employer needs. This includes differentiating University of Phoenix through its program-based colleges and diversifying our organization with the expansion of Apollo Global and other targeted growth initiatives. We are aligning education to careers, offering students tangible skills and helping employers develop a high-performance workforce.
The challenges that Apollo is facing are dually difficult to overcome. There is an increasing number of universities that are offering online curriculum. Even colleges like MIT or Harvard are offering free online classes. The other side of the coin is the attacks from regulators and lawmakers, over recruiting tactics, student loans and job placement after degrees.
Apollo is generally considered to be the face of the online-only and for-profit education system. The company’s woes may not be different than the rest of the sector. Either way, it almost seems difficult to imagine that its will have $85 million to $95 million in operating income next quarter. The sector woes have been so negative for so long that questioning guidance seems fair — or even prudent.
Apparently, investors are also having some doubts about the overall situation. Shares of Apollo were down 27% at $20.40 in the mid-Wednesday trading session. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $30.22 and a 52-week trading range of $20.28 to $35.23. Its 52-week low is new as of Wednesday.
This sector has been so battered and bruised for so long that it just comes naturally to question anything the companies say about their future. That being said, at some point the ultimate survivability seems fair to question as well. The only good news here is that this stock is still above the 10-year low that was put in under $17 in early 2013.
UPDATE: Herb Greenberg appeared on CNBC discussing low enrollment and the huge round trip this stock has seen. Greenberg also brought up that the one area of growth was in overseas, where there is less regulation.
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