Will Competition Really Hurt Chipotle?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is quickly becoming a battleground stock as investors are taking up positions on either side. Some are calling for a 15% to 20% correction while others are expecting continued growth within the fast casual setting and a strong millennial following. Both sides have solid points, but which will come out on top?

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital previously made a call on Chipotle that really fell through. Back in 2012, six years after its IPO, Chipotle’s stock was up over 1,300% and Einhorn predicted that it was way overvalued. Since that time, the stock has nearly doubled to its current price level.

However, Barron’s reported over the long holiday weekend that Chipotle could be losing some spice. From its all-time high in February, shares are already down roughly 17%.

The prime reasoning behind this is the increased competition from other fast casual restaurants that are now hitting the scene. Not to mention that other fast-food restaurants are upping the quality of their own ingredients.

Chipotle has even faced problems internally. Its carnitas, or pork, has been suffering a shortage this year after an inspection showed that pigs from one of its main suppliers had substandard living conditions.

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Joseph Parnes, who runs advisory Technomart RGA, has come out and said that another poor quarter like the last one could potentially push the stock down another 15% to 20%, according to Barron’s.

On the other hand, this stock has a consensus analyst price target of $729.44, which implies upside of 20% from current prices. The highest price target from analysts is $800, which implies upside of roughly 31%.

A couple of recent analyst calls have gone against the consensus:

• Credit Suisse has an Outperform rating and lowered its price target to $725 from $770.
• Wedbush has a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $620 from $665.
• Wunderlich reiterated a Hold rating with a $680 price target.

Optimists would note that Chipotle has over 1,800 restaurants worldwide and is planning on opening up to 195 new restaurants this year. Like many companies, Chipotle has spoken favorably of the idea of increasing its stock buyback program, which speaks to the company’s confidence in the growth of its business.

Chipotle has been benefiting from strong trends among millennials, and especially within the fast casual dining industry, that have sustained its growth for so long. On the other side of the coin, it has grown to the point of having a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 35, based on the current year estimates.

Shares of Chipotle closed Thursday up 0.5% at $609.56, in a 52-week trading range of $575.92 to $727.97. Shares dropped 1.5% to $599.99 just after Monday’s opening bell.

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