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Valuations Just Cannot Support Shake Shack Shares

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After the markets closed on Monday, Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) released its fourth-quarter earnings report, and analysts and investors alike did not enjoy the results. The stock sold off about 10% early in Tuesday’s session, and one key analyst cut its ratings despite relatively decent earnings.

The company had $0.08 in earnings per share (EPS) on $51 million in revenue, compared to the consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters that called for $0.07 in EPS on $50.44 million in revenue. In the same period from the previous year, the company posted a net loss of $0.01 per share on $34.77 million in revenue.

Total revenue increased about 47% in the fourth quarter, and was composed of shack sales increasing 49% to $49.3 million, with the remainder of the revenue made up in licensing. Same-store sales increased by 11% in the quarter as well, compared to the 7.2% from last year.

In terms of guidance for the 2016 full year, the company expects revenue to be in the range of $237 million to $242 million and same-store sales growth to be in the range of $2.5% to 3.0%. Consensus estimates call for $0.39 in EPS on $240.72 million in revenue.


However, these incredible results still could not solve the problem for this up-and-coming burger chain.

The problem? Even after the stock dropped of roughly 10% or so, Shake Shack’s stock still trades at roughly 100-times consensus 2016 EPS and about 80 times 2017 consensus EPS.

Because this quarter wasn’t absolutely phenomenal, in which the earnings can start catching up to the price and lowering the company’s P/E multiple, it is no doubt that investors are abandoning ship and dropping the share price.

Barclays weighed in on Shake Shack with an Equal Weight rating and lowered its price target to $40 from $48.

Shares of Shake Shack were trading down more than 10% at $37.80 on Tuesday, with a consensus analyst price target of $42.00 and a 52-week trading range of $30.00 to $96.75.

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