Even though the E. coli outbreak at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) seems to be long gone, analysts are still cautious on the stock, especially after this most recent earnings report. The burrito chain missed estimates on this most recent earnings report. Although this fueled a couple of negative analysts’ opinions about it, investor sentiment was fairly positive in Friday’s session. Also one analyst stood above the rest and still sees Chipotle having significant upside.
24/7 Wall St. has included some of the key highlights from the earnings report, as well as what analysts are saying after the fact.
The company said that it had $0.87 in earnings per share (EPS) on $998.4 million in revenue. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters had called for $0.93 in EPS on revenue of $1.05 billion. In the same period of last year, Chipotle posted EPS of $4.45 and $1.2 billion in revenue.
Chipotle’s comparable restaurant sales decreased 23.6%, as a result of comparable restaurant transactions falling 19.3%. Separately the restaurant level operating margin was 15.5%, a drop from 28.0%.
During this quarter the company opened 58 new restaurants, and in the first half of the year the company opened 114 of them.
In terms of guidance, the company did not issue any related to earnings or revenues going forward, but instead it dodged that bullet and just said that it plans to open between 220 and 235 new restaurants in the remainder of 2016. Consensus estimates call for $4.39 in EPS on $4.18 billion in revenue for 2016.
Credit Suisse was a standout from the other analysts by keeping its Outperform rating and $500 price target. The firm lowered its 2016 and 2017 EPS forecasts to $2.51 and $10.49, respectively, from $2.70 and 10.52. Shares may continue to be range-bound until they lap the full crisis starting in November and December, which will provide more definitive evidence of the pace of recovery. The firm continues to believe sales recovery is more likely than not and maintain a $500 price target, based on roughly a 35-times historical multiple on “runrate” EPS of about $14, assuming volumes recover to 85% of peaks by 2018, with restaurant margins in the low 20s versus a 28% peak.
Merrill Lynch detailed in its report:
We continue to rate Chipotle shares Neutral and are lowering our price objective to $450 from $575 on lower estimates and pushing out our valuation thoughts to estimated EPS for 2018. Chipotle reported weak second quarter results with EPS of $0.87 and same store sales down 23.6% (transactions down 19.3%) compared to our estimates of $1.05 and comps down 20%. Chipotle’s recovery from food incident sales declines continues to be slower than expected. Same store sales remain especially weak (down 26%) in the Northeast and on the West Coast where the highly publicized food incidents occurred. We are sharply reducing our estimates for 2016/2017/2018 to $2.50/$7.50/$14.25 from our previous estimates of $4.50/$12/$17. We continue to expect the stock to trade on same store sales trends and earnings potential as opposed to near-term earnings.
A few other analysts weighed in on Chipotle after the earnings were reported:
- Wedbush has an Underperform rating with a $400 price target.
- Telsey Advisory Group has a Market Perform rating and lowered its price target to $400 from $420.
- Barclays has an Equal Weight rating with a $395 price target.
- Jefferies cut its price target to $330 from $350.
- Nomura has a Neutral rating with a $405 price target.
Shares of Chipotle were trading up almost 6% at $442.48 as Friday’s session came with a close. The consensus analyst price target is $456.21, and the 52-week trading range is $384.77 to $758.61.
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