More money has been printed around the world for national bailouts and economic stimulus than can easily be counted. It is no secret that the populations of developed nations are getting older and older. Another fact is that historic birth rates are very low among most of these developed nations that also happen to need economic stimulus.

24/7 Wall St. considered what this implies for the debt burden, and negative effects these will create for the generations ahead. Frankly, it is alarming that we all likely will have to apologize over and over to our children for the financial mess we have left them.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is the chief proponent to quantitative easing, with the tally already in the trillions of dollars. Now Japan is taking more aggressive action to boost inflation and stimulus with bond and asset buying. There will end up being much more stimulus efforts in the United Kingdom. Europe has promised to do whatever it takes to save the euro and has used various methods short of wholesale money printing to save national debt and deficit issues when they arise.

It is easy to see the common themes from nation to nation. These countries are throwing hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars at their economies, which all share low real growth in gross domestic product or actual GDP contraction today. The more serious common issues ahead are structural: aging or elderly populations, low birth rates, high unemployment rates and high debt levels.

Consider your own portion of a nation’s debt based on the total population now. Then imagine the per-person burden in the future when smaller numbers of people are employed in these countries, total debt rises along with debt servicing and future costs of social services have to be maintained or expanded. One projection to add to the future debt burden concern is that the population of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries is now expected to grow by less than 0.2% per year until 2050.

The Federal Reserve is buying close to $85 billion in bonds each month in its quantitative easing. Japan has now pledged quantitative easing and stimulus at a rate of about $75 billion per month, and Britain is near $600 billion into asset purchases. Efforts from the European Central Bank are still not the printing press kind. The combined intention is to keep the world’s economy flowing and growing. Unfortunately, the likely dark side of these efforts is the endless liabilities and wrecked value of fiat currencies ahead.

What happens when nations start to realize that birth rates are so low that the per-person burden starts to act the same as compounded interest ahead? If fewer workers are paying for a monster liability, it increases the larger share of the burden per person and it is virtual compounding.

Social Security payments, senior and disabled health care, unemployment benefits, food assistance, housing assistance and other social programs are often considered to be similar to pyramid scheme because they require larger and larger numbers of participants and/or dollars coming into the system to be viable in the years ahead. The developed world has to consider what the burden will be when the future working population is smaller, and we have not even considered the anxiety that relative pay and purchasing power will be lower ahead after taxes.

Immigration is a wild card and has helped population growth in the United States and elsewhere, but the trend of today among the developed nations is to curb immigration unless it is to start businesses. Immigrants of the future may be more interested in heading to nations of growth rather than nations where the finances are considered too burdensome on the population.

24/7 Wall St. has taken data from the CIA World Factbook, the OECD and Eurostat to get comparative data. The observation requires no grand conspiracy theories and requires no “assuming the worst case” scenarios to be more than alarming.

Here is the list of bailout nations (or their leaders) ranked by annual birth rates per 1,000 people. We also have shown ranked population growth rates, how much of the population is 65 years old or more, and what the fertility rates are. We included the current unemployment rates followed by current debt-to-GDP for the economic glue.

The United States
> Annual Birth Rate: 13.7 per 1,000 (147/229)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.90% (124/231)
> Population Over 65: 13.9%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.93 (2.48 in 1970; 1.84 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 7.6%
> Debt-to-GDP: 73.6% (35/153)

The United States shows an anomaly in fertility rates and it was not explained, but it was lower in 2012 than in each of the prior 10 years when most other nations had a slight increase. Regardless of the why that is, the verdict is that a stock market close to all-time highs is not necessarily translating to broad gains for the workforce. Those gains are also on the heels of money chasing risk-assets for income or appreciation. The Federal Reserve has unleashed more bailout and stimulus money recently. The current stimulus, on top of reinvesting principal and interest from past purchases and on top of almost zero on interest rates, is a whopping $85 billion per month. The Fed even signaled that quantitative easing would continue until unemployment gets back to 6.5% without inflation persisting above 2.5% for what would be too long of a period. While the U.S. debt-to-GDP looks safe for now, we have added $1 trillion each year to the deficit, and even recent sequestration was simply a cut in the growth of spending rather than a real cut in spending. The widely followed U.S. National Debt Clock is now close to $16.8 trillion.

France
> Annual Birth Rate: 12.7 per 1,000 (156/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.50% (150/231)
> Population Over 65: 17.9%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.99 (2.48 in 1970; 1.95 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 10.8%
> Debt-to-GDP: 89.9% (17/153)

France is in a second place behind Germany as far being on the hook for the rest of the eurozone’s trouble spots. France’s most recent election threw out President Sarkozy. Austerity agreements and its socialized experiment under President Hollande to tax wealth and to bolster worker pay with better benefits have so far not worked in real-world math. Employers do not want to hire and labor is upset about unemployment actually going up when it was promised to get better. It has been well publicized that some of the nation’s wealthy have chosen to leave France over its higher tax situation attacking the nation’s wealthy. France seems completely unconcerned about its credit ratings. It seems like the troubles of the peripheral nations have been able to act as cover to keep France out of the news as much as it might have been otherwise.

The United Kingdom
> Annual Birth Rate: 12.27 births per 1,000 (162/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.55% (146/231)
> Population Over 65: 17.3%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.98 (2.43 in 1970; 1.9 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 7.7%
> Debt-to-GDP: 88.7% (19/153)

With the lands of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the euro in so much trouble, it is easy to forget that the Bank of England is also involved in wholesale stimulus mode to keep the economy from falling back below the redline. The U.K. is the third-largest economy in Europe, but it is not in the euro. Its dependence on banking hit England hard in the recession and things are still touchy after housing prices tanked while consumer debt piled up. Now the country is under austerity measures through the period of 2015 to 2017, while the Bank of England’s asset purchases were about $600 billion or so as of the end of 2012. Britain has a population of about 63 million, with close to $2.4 trillion in GDP. With such high debt-to-GDP, and after already having lost one of its Triple-A ratings by Moody’s, how much more stimulus can be added here?

Cyprus
> Annual Birth Rate: 11.44 per 1,000 (168/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 1.57% (76/231)
> Population Over 65: 11.0%
> Total Fertility Rates: N/A
> Unemployment Rate: 14.0%
> Debt-to-GDP: 80.9% (27/153)

Cyprus is a nation that its neighbors would not have bothered with, had it not been for this island nation’s presence in the eurozone’s and the region’s latest implosion. It is so small that it was not even included in the term “PIIGS” of the troubled EU nations. With Cyprus being an offshore bank haven, it is likely to remain in the news since its troubles were so broad and include the European Union being allowed to hammer down in the balances above the limits of deposits insurance. With a population of only 1.1 million and with GDP being only about $22.5 billion, the modest bailout is all the attention that Cyprus deserves.

Spain
> Annual Birth Rate: 10.40 per 1,000 (185/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.65% (142/231)
> Population Over 65: 17.5%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.38 (2.9 in 1970; 2.22 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 26.3%
> Debt-to-GDP: 85.3% (20/153)

Spain is only second in size to Italy when it comes to the problem nations of Europe. Its population is about 47 million, and GDP was projected to be $1.4 trillion. It may seem a shock that Spain’s annual birth rate is this low. Unemployment among young adults is so high that it should be simple to understand why birth rates are low: Who wants to have kids and then support them financially under hardship until they are 30 years old or more? Spain also still has a property market that became very similar to that of California. The economy in Spain is in recession and efforts to lower debt via austerity have been problematic. It is hoped that the European Central Bank efforts will help save its banks.

Portugal
> Annual Birth Rate: 9.76 per 1,000 (198/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.18% (178/231)
> Population Over 65: 18.4%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.37 (2.83 in 1970; 2.18 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 17.5%
> Debt-to-GDP: 119.7% (9/153)

Portugal faces the same national prospects as Spain and Greece, although perhaps it is not in as dire condition, considering that the economy is not a linchpin anywhere outside its borders. Its finances are in very bad shape, but the Portuguese banking system is unlikely to topple the euro, as much of the dealings were within the nation. Portugal has a population mix similar to Greece in size around 10.7 million, and GDP per capita is only about two-thirds that of other European nations. The difference is that Portugal’s recession has not gone on as long and it did implement austerity measurements without multiple government upheavals. The nation is also trying to shed public debt, and it has shrunk its deficit over GDP. Unfortunately, growth in this peripheral European nation remains elusive.

Greece
> Annual Birth Rate: 9.08 per 1,000 (207/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.06% (184/231)
> Population Over 65: 20.1%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.51 (2.40 in 1970; 2.23 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 26.4%
> Debt-to-GDP: 161.3% (3/153)

Greece is for all practical purposes ground-zero for the argument about future social liabilities and austerity measures when it comes to whether a nation should be or should not be in the euro. The nation suffers from a double-whammy: 40% of GDP is government related, while per capita GDP is only about two-thirds that of continental Europe. It is the most cited PIIGS nation for problems, and it has been in the longest and worst recession of Europe. Austerity has been painful to the population and anti-austerity measures are risky. A no-confidence push these measures might trigger include a new vote at almost any time the population wishes. That in turn is a considerable long-term threat to its position in the euro. Greece used to be able to print money, but that right no longer exists. Another risk is a rise in nationalism that is creating a threat to non-Western inhabitants there. With no job prospects and no economic growth prospects, Greece has the earmarks of being a troubled nation for years and years.

Italy
> Annual Birth Rate: 9.06 per 1,000 (208/222)
> Population Growth Rate: 0.38% (157/231)
> Population Over 65: 20.8%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.41 (2.43 in 1970; 1.68 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 11.6%
> Debt-to-GDP: 126.1% (8/153)

Italy remains the one nation in the PIIGS that is simply too big to bail out because there are some 61 million people, and GDP in 2012 was still close to $2 trillion at the official exchange rate. It is also the one nation most in need of help. GDP is contracting in Italy for a continued recession, and its political fate is still in the air. Will the nation reject the implemented and signed austerity measures or will the nation remain focused on its expensive social benefits? Italy has had the most expansive retirement system obligation per worker and it will require many younger workers to keep supporting well-paid retirees. Another issue that must eventually be addressed, which may be fought, perhaps through real violence, is that much of the economy is considered to be underground. The nation is in recession and youth unemployment is said to be 35%. Historically we would have seen Italy print lira, but it has no printing presses under the euro.

Japan
> Annual Birth Rate: 8.39 per 1,000 (217/222)
> Population Growth Rate: -0.08% (198/231)
> Population Over 65: 24.8%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.39 (2.13 in 1970; 1.75 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
> Debt-to-GDP: 214.3% (1/153)

Japan has started to deliver on its promise to move from no growth and no inflation to 2% inflation. The Bank of Japan is going to spend close to $75 billion per month (in yen of course) to buy Japanese government bonds and other assets, up to a total of close to $1.4 trillion. Japan’s population is about 127 million, and there remains a large difference between GDP calculations: $4.5 trillion on purchasing power parity, but $5.9 billion at the official exchange rate. The nation’s debt-to-GDP is alarming at more than 200%, even before its new round of stimulus. That ratio is worse even than Zimbabwe. How much more debt and stimulus will the younger generations have to pay for in the generations ahead? Japan’s stimulus package that recently was enacted is about three times that of the United States on a relative basis, based on respective GDPs. With negative population growth and extremely low birth rates from the current generation, the financial future for young Japanese workers has all the hallmarks of a prolonged and serious problem.

Germany
> Annual Birth Rate: 8.33 per 1,000 (218/222)
> Population Growth Rate: -0.20% (208/231)
> Population Over 65: 20.9%
> Total Fertility Rates: 1.39 (2.03 in 1970 and 1.56 in 1980)
> Unemployment Rate: 5.4%
> Debt-to-GDP: 81.7% (25/153)

It may seem unfair on the surface to include Germany on a list of countries needing a bailout. At issue is that Germany is the single strongest large economy in the eurozone, and the euro is effectively a watered down Deutsche Mark as it stands now. A rising worry in recent months is that perhaps Germany eventually will opt-out of the euro rather than try to kick a nation out in the future if more troubles keep arising. Germany’s projected birth rate is among the lowest in the world, and it is even behind Japan. Its negative population growth is a future concern. The population of those 65 and older is 21% of the total. At one point in recent years, there was a national campaign encouraging larger families. Germany’s financial strength is perhaps the key factor keeping the euro currency alive. One threat by Germany to leave the euro would probably be ten-times as traumatic to the PIIGS as each problem that arises in the peripheral nations. When it comes to how the euro will be saved (or not), one can probably just follow Germany’s central bankers on the matter. Fortunately, its GDP is high at more than $3.1 trillion, and its 81 million population is among the most productive in the world.

Ireland and China were not included in this report. Ireland has a young population despite being only about 4.8 million in size. Its birth rate remains higher than most troubled nations in the developed world, and its population has suffered financially to get its house back in order. China’s economic stimulus package is hard to measure, and is perhaps even harder to prove. Population growth has been low and most of the world still assumes that there is a one-child rule. The nation wants to develop more economic growth merely from its own internal economy, but we are not going to commit pen to paper to say exactly how much stimulus Renminbi will really be used.

Please note on the country rankings: The CIA World Factbook only counted 222 nations and territories with positive birth rates, while it tallied up 231 nations and territories for total population growth. It also used a smaller group of 153 nations on debt-to-GDP because some nations do not have much public debt.

Total fertility rates are based on 2010 OECD data. Most data show only slightly higher fertility rates from 2010 versus 2000, but these are generally lower than 1980 and certainly than in 1970. We chose to use 1970 and 1980 because of the expansion of global credit along with higher growth rates back then. OECD total fertility rates come from the 2013 Factbook but uses 2010 data. The data from the OECD Factbook 2013 refers to total fertility rates and is the total number of children born to women within the ages of 15 to 49.

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