Special Report
Ten Countries Where Salaries Are Soaring
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Next year, U.S. wages will increase by about 1.5% after adjusting for inflation, according to ECA International estimates. In some parts of the world, wages will grow at double this rate, and in several countries even more. Ukrainian workers are expected to earn roughly 6.1% more in 2014 than they did this year, adjusted for inflation. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the 10 countries with a projected 3%, or more, real wage growth.
In many of the countries with the highest real wage increase, previously high inflation rates are expected to stabilize. For example, inflation in Ukraine, the country with the highest wage increase, was nearly 16% in 2009, but fell to just 0.6% in 2012. For both 2013 and 2014, prices are expected to remain fairly stable in the country.
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Similarly, inflation rates exceeded 10% in Bangladesh, Kenya, Pakistan and Vietnam in 2011. All of these countries, among the top 10 for wage increases, are projected to have inflation below 8% next year.
In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., ECA International’s Cost of Living and Remuneration Services Manager Steven Kilfedder explained that “salary increases tend to be less elastic than the cost of living or price increases.” When inflation rates stabilize, wages can be slower to adjust, and this means that in countries like Vietnam, which had 18.7% inflation in 2011 and a projected inflation of 7.4% in 2014, “workers reap the benefits.”
Many countries where wages are rising are also expected to experience strong economic growth. According to the IMF forecasts, seven of the 10 countries with the greatest expected wage growth will have GDP growth faster than its 3.6% projection for global growth next year. Two European countries that are not expected to outpace global GDP growth, Bulgaria and Ukraine, have projected GDP growth greater than that of the eurozone, which is expected to grow its economy just 1%.
Another factor potentially leading to higher real wage growth in several of these countries is government-mandated increases in wages, typically the minimum wage. The governments of Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand have recently mandated pay increases for low-wage workers.
Based on wage figures provided by ECA International’s Salary Trends Survey 2013/2014, 24/7 Wall St. determined the 10 countries where wages are projected to rise the most in 2014, net of inflation. Nation-level statistics on inflation, gross domestic product and other macroeconomic figures are from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. GDP per capita figures are adjusted for purchasing power parity. We excluded Argentina from our rankings despite its high nominal and real wage growth because it is widely believed to be underreporting inflation figures. In February, Argentina became the first nation to be censured by the IMF for its economic data.
These are the 10 countries with the fastest-growing salaries.
10. Kenya
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.0% (tied-9th highest)
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 5.0%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 6.2%
> GDP per capita (2012): $1,781
Kenya has struggled with the rising costs of importing food and fuel, and as a result the country has experienced currency depreciation and severe inflation, including a 14% inflation rate in 2011. By 2014 Kenya’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 5%, according to the IMF. At the same time, wages in the country are expected to rise by 8%. By comparison, wages in the United States are expected to increase by 3% that year, before adjusting for the projected 1.5% inflation. Kenya’s resulting real wage increase of 3% would be one of the largest in the world. While the country faces continuing problems with trade deficits and unemployment, the IMF projects strong GDP growth through 2014. Earlier this year, Nairobi’s Westgate Mall, a symbol of newfound prosperity in the country, was attacked by terrorists, resulting in the death of close to 70 civilians.
9. Bulgaria
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.0% (tied-9th highest)
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 1.5%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 1.6%
> GDP per capita (2012): $14,103
Bulgaria’s real wages are expected to increase by 3% after adjusting for the 1.5% inflation rate the IMF projects for Bulgaria in 2014. This is similar to the inflation rate expected for many eurozone countries and the United States in 2014. GDP growth has also been slow in Bulgaria, and output is expected to rise just 0.5% this year and 1.6% next year. Although Bulgaria pegs its currency to the euro, last year it announced it was holding off on joining the currency.
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8. Malaysia
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.1%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 2.6%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 4.9%
> GDP per capita (2012): $16,794
Malaysian wages are expected to grow by 5.7% in 2014, or by 3.1% adjusted for inflation. Malaysia announced an initiative in 2010 to transform the country by 2020 into a high income nation. The government’s plan involves targeting specific industries for growth, such as energy and palm oil, and promoting Kuala Lumpur as “a world class metropolis that will boast top standards in every area from business infrastructure to liveability.” Malaysia’s GDP growth is expected to remain at slightly under 5% in both 2013 and 2014, while U.S.’s growth in the United States, by comparison, is expected to be just 1.6% this year and 2.6% in 2014.
7. The Philippines
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.5%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 3.5%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 6.0%
> GDP per capita (2012): $4,380
The Philippine economy grew by just 3.6% in 2011, after growing GDP by 7.6% the previous year. But beginning in 2012, the country is in the midst of three straight years of at least 6% growth, according to IMF estimates. This is in part due to the country’s projected exports and public sector spending growth. On October 4, workers earning minimum wage in the Manila capital region received pay and cost-of-living allowance increases, although not as much as labor groups had hoped for. Earlier this month, supertyphoon Haiyan hit the Philippines and decimated large parts of the country. It is too soon to predict the effects the destruction will have on the economy and on the real wages increase estimate.
6. Vietnam
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.6%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 7.4%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 5.4%
> GDP per capita (2012): $3,788
Vietnam’s economic growth was relatively strong for much of the 2000s, but toward the end of the decade the country took a turn for the worse. Beginning in 2010, the country’s inflation rate exceeded 9% for three straight years, reaching 18.7% in 2011. The IMF estimates that inflation will slow somewhat and decline to a projected 7.4% rate in 2014. ECA International Kilfedder explained that, although inflation is expected to taper off, wages are expected to grow at a rapid clip. Also, the government announced in June it would raise the minimum wage by roughly 10% for state employees.
5. Thailand
> Forecast real wage growth: 3.9%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 2.1%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 5.2%
> GDP per capita (2012): $9,503
Before inflation, the ECA projects wages in Thailand to increase by 6% next year. While GDP growth has been volatile, the IMF recently noted the country’s ability to support its currency with large international reserves as well as its low inflation rate. Inflation is expected to rise just 2.1% next year, in line with 2.2% this year. Thailand has recently been shaken by political unrest, and the population has been bitterly divided since the coup that removed the government of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006. The country’s 2012 unemployment rate was less than 1%, one of the lowest in the world. Additionally, the country introduced a minimum wage of 300 baht per day, or just under $10.
4. Bangladesh
> Forecast real wage growth: 4.0%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 6.5%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 6.0%
> GDP per capita (2012): $1,963
Inflation in Bangladesh has slowed since reaching 10.7% in 2011, and it is projected by the IMF to keep slowing through 2014. At the same time, GDP in Bangladesh is expected to continue rising at a 6% rate next year. Wage increases in Bangladesh, if realized, will greatly help its more than 150 million residents. Recently, the country increased the minimum wage for workers in garment factories by 77%, although it remained below $70 per month. The garment industry employs millions of people and produces billions in exports annually, both critical in a country where the GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) was less than $2,000 last year, among the lowest in the world.
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3. Pakistan
> Forecast real wage growth: 4.8%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 7.9%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 2.5%
> GDP per capita (2012): $3,056
Although Pakistan’s inflation rate is expected to reach almost 8% in 2014, this is a vast improvement from previous years. Pakistan’s inflation rate reached 17.6% in 2009 and remained above 10% until this year. Meanwhile, the IMF projects Pakistan’s GDP growth to slow to 3.6% in 2013 and 2.5% next, down from an estimated 4.4% in 2012. Although salaries are forecast to rise by nearly 13% on average before inflation, the largest nominal increase in the world, unemployment is also projected to rise. Government spending is expected to total just 21.7% of GDP this year, while gross government debt is expected to reach just 66.2% of GDP, both far lower than the United States. However, less than 1% of Pakistanis pay income any taxes, and the IMF recently provided Pakistan with a multibillion dollar loan to help the country avoid default.
2. China
> Forecast real wage growth: 5.0%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 3.0%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 7.3%
> GDP per capita (2012): $9,055
Nominal wages in China are expected to rise by 8% next year, while inflation is expected to be a moderate 3%. After years of rapid expansion, Chinese GDP growth is expected to slow in the next few years. The IMF estimates China’s GDP will grow by 7.6% in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014, down from a recent high of more than 10% in 2010. However, these increases still vastly outpace U.S. projected growth of 1.6% this year and 2.6% for 2014. The Communist Party’s Central Committee recently held its widely followed Third Plenum and called for several new policies and reforms, including loosening China’s famous one-child policy.
1. Ukraine
> Forecast real wage growth: 6.1%
> Forecast 2014 inflation rate: 1.9%
> Forecast 2014 GDP growth: 1.5%
> GDP per capita (2012): $7,295
Nominal wages in Ukraine are expected to rise by 8% in 2014, according to ECA International. At the same time, the IMF projects the country’s inflation rate to be just 1.9% next year, or close to the projected U.S. inflation rate of 1.5%. As a result, net of inflation, wages in Ukraine are expected to rise faster than in any other country. But while the country has been able to successfully curb inflation — which was in the double digits as recently as 2009 — it now faces slow growth. The IMF estimates the country’s economy will grow by just 0.4% this year and 1.5% in 2014. Under extreme pressure from Russia, Ukraine recently backed out of a proposed trade deal with the European Union.
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