The old oil bull market, the one where oil went to $140 per barrel, now feels like ancient history. Oil prices have recently been challenging lows not seen since 2012. Continuously rising oil prices not only translate to higher prices at the pump but also to higher prices of goods because of the increased production and transportation costs. But now the economy is dealing with steadily falling oil prices in recent months, which can contribute to deflation — itself a source of concern.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to focus on five key reasons the price of oil is not rising.

There are, of course, more than just five reasons for oil prices not rising. We avoided the role of currency movements, which have lately added a new curve ball — the dollar has rallied against major currencies, and oil is priced in dollars. Another factor we have not explored is Iran. If Iran’s energy infrastructure comes back online in full, this could further add to downward pressures on oil prices.

Recent global news might make one think oil prices would have been set to shoot much higher. Despite the rise of ISIL in Iraq and Syria, and despite all the sanctions that were placed on Russia for its role in the Ukraine skirmishes and the annexation of Crimea, the price of oil has been on a steady decline. Here are five reasons you shouldn’t expect oil to rise.

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1. The U.S. Energy Boom

North America has experienced an energy boom, contributing to increasing global oil supplies. Oil and gas business in North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Oklahoma and elsewhere have seen major expansions around shale plays. This created strong demand for pipeline and equipment suppliers, as well as rail lines, but ultimately this can create a severe bottleneck in supplies. When oil was over $100, the profits flowed. At $90, some projects look less attractive, and if oil goes under $80, many projects may have to idle.

The North American energy boom has likely helped increase global oil supplies, which in turn lowered oil prices. Indeed, OPEC and other nations have warned that North America remains the main driver for the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014.

2. The Middle East and OPEC

Despite the fighting in and around Iraq, oil prices have defied concerns of heightened geopolitical risks. The most recent news outside of official price cuts is that Saudi Arabia has reportedly been telling OPEC members that it would not be uncomfortable if oil fell to $80 per barrel for a year or two. Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations have not exactly been fond of committing to limiting production, which could keep prices low even if OPEC tightens quotas.

OPEC and certain nations in the Middle East have definitely noticed the growing clout of the United States in global energy markets. A recent OPEC supply and demand projection showed that the increase in total non-OPEC supply will outpace the growth in world oil demand. Even as recently as the start of October, there were reports that Saudi Arabia was lowering its official price of oil. More and more news reports are out hinting at oil price wars.

3. Commodity Bust

Assets prices are often correlated with one another. Most stocks rise in strong stock markets, and most bond prices rise when Treasury prices rally. This can be true of commodities as well. Global commodity demand has been soft due to weakness in emerging markets and in Europe. While gold recently recovered after breaking under $1,200 per ounce, it is still way down from the $1,800 or so highs of 2011. The reality is that many commodity traders have been hurt.

The price of copper, a key indicator of global growth, has dropped from roughly $3.35 per pound at the start of 2014 to nearly $3.00 at the start of October. Even after the first week of September, aluminum prices — also a barometer of global trade expectations — have fallen from almost $0.93 per pound to below $0.84 per pound before a bounce in recent days. Coffee is one of the few rising commodities, but that is due to regional growth issues. And coffee is not considered a driving force on the world’s economy.

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4. Deflationary Fears From Europe

Central banks around the world usually try to keep deflation in check, and now the heat is on to guard against exactly that. The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently moved to an experiment in negative interest rates to encourage bank lending and asset buying. Unfortunately, the ECB may be running out of bullets to create new stimulus. Peter Praet, an ECB executive board member, also mentioned Europe’s disappointing inflation rate, and that any improvements in the area’s economy would only be gradual.

Deflation in the United States could also become a concern. Dropping oil prices tend to create declining prices elsewhere.

5. Inventory Trends and Trading Bets

The most recent U.S. Energy Information Administration release of weekly petroleum inventories showed that commercial crude inventories increased by 5 million barrels for a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 361.7 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute reported a similar crude inventory rise of 5.1 million barrels. All things being equal, rising inventories will bring lower prices.

There is an old saying in trading that high prices bring even higher prices. The same is true in reverse, that 52-week lows generally beget more 52-week lows. The reason for this is that many traders simply follow trends until they stop working.

One word to the wise. It takes a lot of discipline, but whenever key reports come out about a trend that appears to never end, that might actually signal its peak.

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