Special Report

The 7 Best Investments of 2014

Every year, new global trends emerge, old ones play out, and the financial markets adjust. This can offer new opportunities for investors to make money if their forecasts are accurate, their investments are timely, and they choose their assets well.

For some asset classes, there has been a bull market: equity mutual funds and stocks have performed well in recent years. One mutual fund, the Matthews India Fund, is up by over 66% this year. For large individual U.S. stocks, Southwest Airlines is the best performer, having more-than doubled in 2014.

Click here to see the seven best investments of 2014.

In other classes, individual investments stood out from the pack. The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund has returned 39% in the year-to-date, versus just over a 5% return in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. And while the commodities market has lagged, coffee has been a notable exception. ICE Coffee C futures are up over 61%, versus a 24% decline in the S&P GCSI — a widely-tracked commodities index — so far this year.

Yet, just because an individual investment has performed well in the past does not necessarily mean it will perform well into the future. Prices cannot rise forever. This makes sense intuitively: if the price of coffee rose indefinitely, coffee drinkers would refuse to buy it and prices would have to fall to entice consumers to buy coffee again. Similarly, if the price of oil were to fall indefinitely, at some point producers would stop producing until prices rebounded.

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Additionally, for many investments, investors must deal with extreme volatility. While recent initial public offerings (IPOs) Radius Health and GoPro are up more than 200% since they were first priced, investors would still have had to enter the market for shares at the right time. Exiting an investment is equally as important. In order to earn a return, investors have to assume risk. In many cases, this risk takes the form of buying-in, or cashing-out, of an investment at an unfavorable price.

Nonetheless, each of these investments has distinguished itself from the market at-large. Investors who started the year with positions in Matthews India Fund, the iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF, or Southwest Airlines have reaped the benefits of a good year. But now its next year, and beyond, that counts.

In order to identify the best investments of 2014, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data from a number of sources. Figures on mutual fund and ETF returns are from Morningstar. We excluded ETFs that aim to provide leveraged, or inverse-leveraged, daily returns from our consideration. To determine bond fund returns, we screened for bond funds exclusively. Figures on large-cap stocks are from Finviz, and represent securities that are part of the S&P 500. Data on IPOs are from Renaissance Capital, and returns on IPOs assume the investor bought shares at the IPO price. Commodities data is from the Stevens Continuous Futures Database. Figures are adjusted by Stevens to weigh contracts based on outstanding volume and to roll contracts over at applicable end-of-the month dates.  Year-to-date returns are all as of December 8, 2014.

These are the best investments of 2014.

1. Mutual Funds

The top-performing mutual fund so far this year is Matthews India Fund, which has gained more than 66% so far this year. The fund’s expense ratio of 1.03% is relatively low when compared to other top-performing funds this year. The fund had slightly more than $1 billion in assets under management as of November. While the fund charges a 2% redemption fee, it does not carry any distribution fees, known as 12b-1 fees, which are charged to investors by a fund’s parent in order to cover fund marketing expenses.

Overall, India equity funds have performed exceptionally well this year. As a class, these funds have gained 47.1% so far this year, according to Morningstar. Numerous ETFs focusing on the country have also been up considerably on optimism surrounding the election victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected to push for reforms in the emerging economy. India’s benchmark stock index, the S&P BSE Sensex, is up 33% year to date.

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2. ETFs

As with mutual funds, India-focused exchange traded funds dominate the list of best performing ETFs. Specifically, investors in India’s small cap stocks have fared best, with the iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF up almost 60% so far this year. Not far behind are the EGShares India Small Cap ETF and the Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF.

However, investing in small cap stocks can be risky. While ETFs focused on small cap Indian companies and biotech have done well this year, others, such as Brazil and Russia small cap ETFs, have posted double-digit percent losses so far this year.

3. Large cap stocks

Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) has been the top-performing stock on the S&P 500 this year through the first week of December. A number of simultaneous positive headwinds have helped push airline stocks higher, including an improving American economy, industry consolidation (which reduces profit-squeezing competition), and lower jet fuel prices. Also helping Southwest was the repeal of the Wright Amendment, which limited the number of destinations Southwest  could fly to from its home base of Dallas Love Field. Optimism surrounding the company, as well as substantial growth in its operating and net income, have made 2014 a very strong year for Southwest thus far.

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4. IPOs

Initial public offerings have had a strong year in 2014. According to Renaissance Capital, an IPO research and investment management company, the number of U.S. IPOs launched in 2014 has increased by 25% from last year, while the total amount raised has reached $82 billion, 66% more than in 2013. In September, the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.(NYSE: BABA) IPO broke records, raising almost $21.8 billion. Shares of the stock then took off, rising 38% on their first day.

However, no individual IPO has performed better than Radius Health (NASDAQ: RDUS), a newly public biotech stock focusing on osteoporosis treatment. Since it was priced on June 5, shares have risen 203%. The company, however, is still quite small. It is also quite risky, with a book value of just $23 million and a net loss of $17 million in the most recent quarter. Another huge gainer — with shares also up 200% — is HD camera maker GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO). This stock, too, is not for the faint of heart, with many investors willing to pay hefty amounts to bet against GoPro.

5. Commodities

This year has not been especially kind to commodities. The benchmark S&P GSCI commodities index declined by 24% year to date. Some of the most popular commodities have tumbled. WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark for oil, dropped more than 33% so far this year. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has slid even further — 37% on the year. Joining oil, precious metals such as gold and silver, also declined so far this year.

Among the lucky few commodities to survive the rout has been coffee. ICE Coffee C futures contracts have gained nearly 62% this year. Concerned about dry weather in Brazil, investors pushed coffee above $2.00 per pound earlier in the year. Even drinkers of instant coffee — usually made from robusta coffee beans — have not gotten a break, thanks to a weak robusta crop in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, according to The Financial Times.

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6. Currencies

A rallying dollar has perhaps been the defining trend of the foreign exchange market in recent months. The end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and an improved outlook for U.S. growth have helped push the dollar higher. Other factors included hopes the European Central Bank will expand its stimulus programs as well as aggressive policies from the Bank of Japan.

Yet the dollar’s gain against some currencies has been especially pronounced. The Russian rouble, in particular, has slid 60% relative to the dollar. This has meant big gains for those selling rouble to buy U.S. dollars. However, it has also meant pain for Russia, which has been hit by Western sanctions related to its role in the Ukraine crisis as well as a drop in oil prices. The effect of the lower rouble has been higher inflation and interest rates in Russia.

7. Fixed income mutual funds

The fixed income market is massive and diverse. Investors can choose anything from Treasury bills — which carry little default risk, offer low interest rates, and mature in a few months — to highly speculative securities with equity-like traits, such as high yield bonds and convertible debt. Mortgage debt, municipal bonds, and bank loans also add to the huge variety of available debt.

Mutual funds are similarly diverse. Some funds invest accept additional credit risk for higher income, others limit themselves to safe Treasury securities, and some look to maximize tax efficiency by focusing on municipal debt. This year, the highest-earning bond fund has been the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund, which had returned 39% in the year to date. In order to generate high returns, the fund invests in Treasury STRIPS — zero-coupon bonds created from existing U.S. government debt — that matures in 20 to 30 years. However, because of this strategy, the fund is extremely exposed to changes in interest rates. In fact, Vanguard notes that “the fund is primarily intended for institutional investors with extremely long-term liabilities.”

Correction: A previous screen indicated the wrong bond fund has been the most profitable in the year thus far. In fact, the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund has been the top-performing bond fund in the year-to-date.

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