Location, location, location, it is said, are key to succeeding in real estate. While the value of a single family home nationally may — at the current pace — be about 2.5 years away from a full recovery, in some large urban areas it might take more than 10 years for homes to recover their value.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed home values in the 50 largest core based statistical areas (CBSA) from Corelogic to determine how long it would take for home values to return to their peak values in the aftermath of the collapse of the housing bubble and subsequent recession. These are the housing markets with the longest recovery periods.

Click here to see the eight housing markets with the longest recovery periods.

The housing markets with the longest recovery periods either had especially slow growth rates, particularly large percentage drops in home values, or both. Six of the eight housing markets reviewed, for example, had among the nation’s slowest growth rates over the 12 months through January 2015.

Danielle Hale, director of housing statistics at the National Association of Realtors, suggested why housing values in these markets fell.

“These areas probably had more building and sales and home activity in general during the periods of peak values,” Hale explained. “Therefore, the legacy of the aftermath of the housing crisis is a little bit sharper in these areas than in other areas.”

In all but one of the eight markets that will take the longest to recover, the drop in home values from peak to trough was greater than the 33.8% drop in values nationwide. In the Las Vegas and Riverside areas, home values fell by 58.2% and 50.5%, respectively, both some of the largest such declines.

Hale also suggested why the value recovery might lag in these areas.

“Some of the reasons for the delayed recovery in some of these areas have to do with the overall economy,” Hale offered. “In some of these markets, like the California market for example, Riverside has actually seen some job growth compared to their previous peak.” In other areas such as the Providence and Detroit metro areas, however, “the number of payroll employees has actually not yet eclipsed their previous peak levels.”

Hale noted a link between jobs and the economy of a region and housing. Indeed, 24/7 Wall St. found that value improvements tend to lag a labor market improvement in the areas reviewed.

In the Las Vegas, Orlando, and West Palm Beach metro areas, the unemployment rates were at their lowest in the year housing values peaked. When the unemployment rate peaked in these areas, on the other hand, housing values troughed shortly after.

“There’s a really strong relationship between jobs and the overall economic performance and the housing market,” according to Hale. “Economic performance as reflected in the jobs numbers is really key to understanding what’s going on in the housing market.”

To identify the eight housing markets with the longest estimated recovery periods, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the number of years current home values in the 50 largest core-based statistical areas (CBSA) would need to reach their respective peaks at their most current annualized growth rate. CBSAs are county clusters identified by the U.S. Census as the cores of major metropolitan areas. Annualized growth rates over the 12 months through January 2015 in the 50 largest CBSAs are from Corelogic. In order to capture a region’s recovery from the housing crisis specifically, we excluded areas where home values bottomed out prior to 2007. We also only considered areas where the estimated time to recovery exceeded four years, well more than the national estimated time to recovery of 2.5 years. Annual unemployment rates from each each year between 2005 and 2013 came from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Five-year estimated median household incomes came from the U.S. Census American Community Survey. All data are as of the most recent period available.

These are the eight areas with the longest housing market recoveries.

8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL
> Years to recover: 4.3
> Home value peak: 5/1/2006
> Home value trough: 3/1/2012
> Pct. change peak to trough: -45.7%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -28.0%

Based on the most recent annual growth rate, housing values in the West Palm region are expected to recover to their 2006 high in a little over four years, or by early 2019. This was the eighth longest recovery time of the 50 areas reviewed. The area is one of several Florida regions where home values plummeted during the housing crisis. From their highs in May 2006, values in the area dropped almost 46% until they hit their lows in March 2012. After bottoming, those values then began an erratic upward climb, much like the national trend. values in West Palm advanced 5.1% in the year ended January 2013, 16.6% in the next 12 months but 8.0% in the following 12-month period.

Despite those increases, values now are still 28.0% below their May 2006 peak levels, worse than all but a few areas reviewed. As Hale explained, “economic performance as reflected in the jobs numbers is really key to understanding what’s going on in the housing market.” The area’s unemployment rate in 2006 was a low 3.7%, and soared closer to the trough period. As an attractive retirement destination, 34% of the area’s residents are over the age of 55, the highest share of the 50 areas reviewed.

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7. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA
> Years to recover: 5.5
> Home value peak: 10/1/2005
> Home value trough: 1/1/2012
> Pct. change peak to trough: -48.3%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -27.2%

Home values in Sacramento were down 27.2% from their October 2005 high. If values continue to grow at their most recent 12-month pace, 6.0%, they would recover completely in about five-and-a-half years, July 2021. Income, according to Hale, is one of the drivers of home-buying. Sacramento residents had one of the higher five-year average median incomes of the 50 CBSAs. The median income of $63,251 was more than $10,000 higher than the nation’s. Since peaking, the region’s home values fell more than 48% to their trough in January 2012. This was the fourth largest decline. values bounced back up 14.3% in the next 12 months and 16.3% in the 12 month after that. When Sacramento’s home values were their highest, the unemployment rate in the area was 4.9% but it more than doubled to 11.8% as home values plunged.

6. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
> Years to recover: 6.8
> Home value peak: 8/1/2006
> Home value trough: 4/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -47.6%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -31.6%

The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford CBSA may be home to amusement parks, but what happened to the region’s home values was far from amusing. Area home values fell almost 48% between August 2006, when values peaked, and April 2011, when they hit bottom — one of the largest such declines. Values improved 5.8% in the 12 months through January 2015. If that pace continues, Orlando homes will have recovered all their lost values in just under seven years, late 2021.

The region’s five year median income, $48,671 was lower than the national median income over that period and the second lowest of the areas with the longest estimated housing recoveries. The Orlando unemployment rate, a miniscule 3.2% when home values were at their highest, more than tripled to 11.2% by 2010, a year before home values fell to their lowest. By 2013, the unemployment rate recovered to 7.1%. The movement of the unemployment rate and home values in Orlando was similar to the trajectory in many other regions. The unemployment rate was at its lowest when home values peaked, but reached its highest about a year before values troughed.

5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
> Years to recover: 7.0
> Home value peak: 9/1/2006
> Home value trough: 12/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -50.5%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -30.2%

After plunging 50.5% from September 2006 to December 2011 — the second steepest peak-to-trough drop of the 50 most populous CBSAs — home values in Riverside grew 5.3% over the 12 months through January 2015. If the improvement continues at that pace, home values in Riverside will return to their peak level in about seven years, early 2022. The unemployment rate in Riverside soared from 4.9% in 2006, when home values were at their highest, to 14.2% in 2010, a year before home values bottomed. In the same time period, the national unemployment rate went from 4.6% to 9.6%. Even with recent improvements, Riverside home values are still 30.2% below their September 2006 peak.

4. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
> Years to recover: 7.9
> Home value peak: 5/1/2006
> Home value trough: 12/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -58.2%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -38.9%

Of the 50 most populous CBSAs, no region’s home values were slammed more than those in the Las Vegas area where values fell a staggering 58.2% from May 2006 to December 2011. And while it took five-and-a-half years for values to stop falling, they may not return to peak levels for almost eight years, January 2023 based on the 6.4% growth rate in the 12 months through January 2015. While values have recovered somewhat from the trough, they are still almost 39% below their peak. One reason for the slow recovery pace is the area’s 2013 unemployment rate was 9.7% which was, higher than the national rate for the at least the ninth year in a row.

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3. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
> Years to recover: 9.7
> Home value peak: 6/1/2006
> Home value trough: 10/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -47.1%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -27.4%

After falling 47.1% from their June 2006 peak home values in the Phoenix area hit bottom in October 2011. Over the 12 months through January 2015 they grew 3.4%. If that growth rate were to continue, Phoenix area home values would climb back to their peak in just under 10 years, September 2024. While current home values are up 37.2% from their trough, they remain down 27.4% from their peak. The area had a 3.7% unemployment rate in 2006 when its home values were at their highest, almost a full point below the nation’s 4.6% jobless rate at the time. When home values troughed, though, the area’s 2011 unemployment rate rose to 8.7% which was an improvement from 2010, when the area’s jobless rate hit 9.6%. In the Phoenix area, as in most other regions, the unemployment rate peaked about a year before values hit their low point.

2. Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI
> Years to recover: 10.9
> Home value peak: 9/1/2005
> Home value trough: 2/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -44.6%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -24.6%

Home values in the Detroit area peaked in September 2005. Values fell almost 45% over the next five-and-a-half years, troughing in February 2011 — almost two years after the official end of the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since then, home values have improved by 36.2% but remain almost 25% below their 2005 high. Using Detroit’s 2.6% rate of home value growth over the 12 months through January 2015, home values in Detroit will need almost 11 years, until about October 2025, to return to their peak levels. That would mean while it took about five-and-a-half years for Detroit values to bottom, it could take, in total, more than 14 years for them to recover.

The trajectory of Detroit’s unemployment rate roughly tracked that of home values: home values were at their highest when the unemployment rate was near its lowest and values dropped as the unemployment rate rose. Detroit’s housing values were affected as well by the area’s personal income. The five-year median household income of $41,184 in the area was far below that national median of $53,046. The area income was the lowest of the areas where home values could take at least four years to recover.

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1. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
> Years to recover: 16.8
> Home value peak: 10/1/2005
> Home value trough: 3/1/2012
> Pct. change peak to trough: -32.0%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -24.4%

It could take four times as long for home values in the Providence area to recover as it did for them to collapse. After peaking in October 2005, home values in the Providence-Warwick area plunged 32.0% in the ensuing six and a half years. From March 2012 until this January, home values in the area recovered 11.1%, although this was one of lowest percentage increases. Home values also recovered unevenly. They grew 2.7% in the 12 months ended 2013, then shot up nearly twice as fast — 5.2% — in the next 12 months. However, in the following 12 months ending in January 2015, home values rose by just 1.7%, nearly the slowest growth rate. Based on the most recent growth rate, the value of a home in the Providence-Warwick area will not reach its pre-crash high until November 2032, a total of 27 years since the area’s value peak.

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