Special Report
The Best (and Worst) Investments of 2015
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Year-end reviews provide hindsight into the market. They allow investors to examine which investments did well, and which was better left out of the portfolio.
With an increasingly interdependent global economy, Americans’ investing portfolios are also increasingly tied to global trends. This year, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the low price of oil, and the struggling of emerging markets had broad-reaching effects on investments. Based on 2015 performance of individual investments in seven major investment classes — mutual funds, ETFs, large cap stocks, IPOs, commodities, currencies, and fixed income mutual funds — 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the best and worst investments in 2015.
Betting on commodities has been largely unprofitable in 2015, with the S&P GSCI — a widely tracked commodities index — down 32.7% so far this year. Speculators who sold short the dollar have also been hit. The U.S. dollar is up against virtually every currency in the world.
Click here to see the best investments of 2015
Click here to see the worst investments of 2015
In each of the seven asset classes, despite being volatile or relative stable, some investments provided great returns, while others provided considerable losses. While the S&P 500 index remained largely unchanged over the course of the year, the price of some stocks shot up while the price of others took a nose-dive. The best performing stock so far in 2015, Netflix, increased in value by more than 150%, while shares of Southwestern Energy Company declined by more than 80%.
Some of these investments, regardless of the asset class, failed or succeeded for similar reasons. The sharp declines in the prices of oil and natural gas, for example, has had far-reaching implications. While oil prices dropped the most of any commodity, many related stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds also took a major hit.
The drop in oil and natural gas prices was also the reason investing in the Venezuelan bolivar was the worst performing currency in 2015 relative to the U.S. dollar. The Venezuelan economy relies heavily on its substantial oil reserves, and the plummeting value of oil has devastated the country’s economy.
In order to identify the best investments of 2015, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data from a number of sources. Figures on mutual funds and ETF returns are from Morningstar. We excluded ETFs that aim to provide leveraged, or inverse-leveraged daily returns from our consideration. To determine bond fund returns, we screened for bond funds exclusively. Figures on large cap stocks represent securities that are part of the S&P 500. Data on IPOs are from The Motley Fool, and returns on IPOs assume the investor bought shares at the IPO price. Currency data are from Google Finance. Year-to-date returns are all as of December 7, 2015.
These are the best (and worst) investments of 2015.
The Best Investments
1. Mutual Funds
Morgan Stanley Institutional Growth is the top performing mutual fund of 2015, returning 11% so far this year. While this is the best return on investment of mutual funds reviewed, it is below the fund’s own five-year average return of 14.6%. The fund’s management fees are less than 0.69% of its assets, below the average fund fee and one of the better expense ratios compared with other large, well-performing mutual funds. In addition, Morgan Stanley Institutional Growth’s relatively low turnover rate of 44% reflects a less aggressive, long-term approach. By contrast, around 70% of a typical large-growth fund’s assets change in a given year.
The technology sector accounts for the largest share of the fund’s holdings. Tech behemoths Amazon.com and Google have been part of the fund’s portfolio since 2004. Other top holdings include Facebook and Tesla Motors.
2. ETFs
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) allow investors to bet on the performance of an index or a commodity in the form of a security. ETFs can also act as a short, or a leveraged short, of the underlying asset. The year’s best performing ETF position was VelocityShares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN, a triple-leveraged ETF meant to track the inverse price movement of natural gas. Because natural gas prices fell 33% in the past year, this ETF climbed more than 200%. Excluding leveraged ETFs, and those that track the inverse of a commodity or index, the best-performing ETF of 2015 is the Market Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF, which emulates bonds issued by China.
3. Large Cap Stocks
Despite a sharp selloff in August, the S&P 500 index is set to end the year basically unchanged. Some stocks, as might be expected, significantly outperformed the market. Most of these are not surprising. For example, shares of Amazon.com, which continues its domination of the American retail sector, shot up more than 110% from January 1, 2015. The honor of the best investment among large cap stocks, however, goes to another well-known web-based company. Shares of movie streaming and DVD rental company Netflix have surged by 143%, easily leading S&P 500 companies. The company has benefitted from a strong year, boosted in part by a bevy of successful original content. One report from November suggested that more than half of all American households now use the company’s streaming service.
4. IPOs
The number of initial public offerings in U.S. markets has increased nearly every year since 2008, when 31 American companies went public. Last year, 275 U.S. companies went public. It appears that 2015 will fall short of the 2014 total, with approximately 170 companies going public thus far this year. Many of the big name companies, including Uber and AirBnB, are not scheduled to hit the market until next year. The most successful of this year’s IPOs is Spark Therapeutics, a biotechnology company that developed gene treatments for orphan retinal dystrophies, a group of conditions that can cause vision impairment. Initially, it was expected that Spark would price the shares at $21, but due to hot demand the IPO was priced at $23 per share. As of the close of the market on December 15, shares were trading at more than $48.
5. Commodities
It has been a rough year for commodities. Of the few reported gains, cocoa has performed the best, returning more than 18% so far this year. Cocoa prices depend largely on European markets — Europe is the world’s largest per capita consumer of chocolate, in which cocoa is the main ingredient. Because commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, when the euro rises against the U.S. dollar, cocoa typically becomes cheaper for Europeans, and this disproportionately affects the commodity price. The chocolate ingredient has fared well this year despite the euro dropping by 9.6% against the dollar, which is having an especially strong 2015, so far this year.
The supply side of cocoa markets has also contributed to the year to date gains. The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce 60% of the world’s cocoa. Fears that Ebola would spread to West Africa contributed to the price spike in the second half of this year, according to The Wall Street Journal.
6. Currencies
In the currencies market, 2015 was, by all accounts, the year of the dollar. Over the course of the year, the dollar went up relative to nearly every other currency. As of March, the dollar recorded its fastest rise in over 40 years. The dollar strengthened partly because many of the world’s other relatively stable global currencies weakened. For example, the dollar is up 10% against the euro and up 46% against the Brazilian real.
The dollar has also been strong against the ruble, up by more than 15% compared to the Russian currency. The value of the ruble plummeted due to a continuing decline in the global value of oil, of which the country is a major supplier. Another reason for the strong dollar is the increasing belief among economists that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates, while most other major global economies are still actively engaging in quantitative easing.
7. Fixed income mutual funds
The options in the fixed income mutual fund market are far more diverse than those in any of the other asset classes considered here. Investors can choose anything from low risk, low interest rate government bonds to more risky, highly speculative securities with equity-like traits such as high yield bonds and convertible debt.
Excluding mutual funds investing in short positions, Arrow Alternative Solutions Instl is among the top performing fixed income funds. So far this year, the fund has returned 6.2%, an above average yield compared with other funds. According to the fund, low correlation to traditional investments, low volatility, and absolute returns. Of the fund’s top 10 holdings, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond — cash holdings — account for roughly half of Arrow’s asset allocations.
The Worst Investments
1. Mutual Funds
The RS Global Natural Resource Fund is the worst performing mutual fund of 2015, down by over 41% so far this year. Investment resource firm Morningstar gave the fund just one star, the worst possible rating. The fund was started on November 15, 1995 and is currently managed by Mackenzie Davis and Kenneth Settles.
A large share of the fund’s holdings are energy producers. As of the end of last year, the energy sector accounted for nearly 48% of RS Global Natural Resources Fund’s investment positions.
The price of crude oil increased substantially between mid March and the middle of May this year, but then plummeted. As of December 7, a barrel of crude costs $37.64, the lowest in more than a decade. The RS Global fund did not perform well last year, either. Like other energy sector-related investments, the fund was slammed over the second half of 2014 when oil prices fell by more than 40%. Further, OPEC nations did not agree to cut oil supply as was widely believed, contributing to the selloff of energy shares at the end of the year.
2. ETFs
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, track indices or commodities, as opposed to individual stocks, which track a specific company. Leveraged ETFs can also provide investors with two, or even three times the return of the underlying assets. Some ETFs provide the inverse return, allowing investors to short the position — making money when the underlying index or commodity falls. Among leveraged ETFs, most of the worst positions are related to energy because of the massive decline in the price of oil and natural gas over the past year and a half. The worst-performing single ETF this year was the Direxion Daily Nat Gas Rltd Bull 3X ETF, which tracks the price of natural gas, but is leveraged in a way that would provide three times the return, slumped by more than 99% since January 1.
3. Large Cap Stocks
It appears the S&P 500 index will end the year in roughly the same position it began. But the index’s flat performance does not mean the stock market had an uneventful year. The S&P 500 plummeted in late August to below 1,900 before the index returned to the 2,000-2,100 range. Similarly, not all stocks are set to end the year flat. In fact, some securities — primarily energy companies — lost more than half of their value in the past year. The biggest loser in the S&P 500 is Texas oil and natural gas company, Southwestern Energy. Shares of SWN have plunged more than 80% so far this year, including a 10% drop on December 14 after the price of crude oil fell below $35 a barrel.
4. IPOs
There have been some spectacular and well-publicized IPO failures in recent years. The 2012 Facebook IPO comes to mind, when shares fell by more than 50% over the first few months of the shares’ public trading. While 2015 lacked a Facebook-grade high-profile failure, some IPOs this year were nevertheless very poor investments. For example, this year’s biggest flop was the digital advertising tech company MaxPoint International, which was founded by former eBay executives. Maxpoint was initially offered price of $11.50 per share, but was trading at just $1.45 as of mid-December, a nearly 90% loss of value.
5. Commodities
Commodity prices are at some of their lowest levels in 15 years. The excess supply contributed to a decline in prices, which put pressure on fund returns and caused investors to flee. As was the case last year, crude oil and natural gas have been the biggest losers among commodities. The price of Brent crude was $39.69 a barrel as of December 7, down nearly 42% from a year ago. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price of $37.64 a barrel on December 7 was down considerably from the start of the year when the price was more than $50 a barrel.
Global production of petroleum and other liquid fuels has grown faster than demand since the middle of last year, generating an ongoing oversupply of oil in global markets, which pushed prices down. The bulk of crude production growth has traditionally come from OPEC nations. However, this year, the growth in production has come from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations, particularly the United States.
6. Currencies
The value of several South American currencies plummeted this year, including the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which have each lost more than 25% of their value relative to the U.S dollar so far this year. The Venezuelan bolivar, which is not officially traded, has also plunged against the U.S. dollar, as the country’s economy has become increasingly unstable. Venezuela’s economy relies heavily on oil — the country has the most proved oil reserves in the world. As the price of oil has continued to drop, flirting with $35 per barrel, conditions in the South American country have worsened. According to Bloomberg, the black market exchange rate for the bolivar versus the U.S. dollar has declined by more than 80% in the past year.
7. Fixed-income mutual funds
The fixed income market is large and extremely diverse. It is twice as large as the typically more closely followed equity market. Investors can choose anything from low risk, low interest rate government bonds to more risky, highly speculative securities with equity-like traits such as high yield bonds and convertible debt. Mortgage debt, municipal bonds, and bank loans also add to the huge variety of available investment options.
Bond mutual funds are similarly diverse. To name just one distinction, some bond funds limit themselves to safe investments, while others accept high levels of risk for potentially higher returns. Of course, sometimes risky investments do not pay off. The Catalyst / SMH High Income fund is one of the worst-performing fixed income mutual funds so far this year, with trailing returns at -22.5% year to date. According to Morningstar, the risk of investment in this fund is high compared with other fixed income funds.
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