The Fastest Growing (and Shrinking) States

In the past year, the U.S. population grew by roughly 2.5 million people. International net migration accounted for approximately 46% of this growth. Natural growth — the number of births less the number of deaths — accounted for the roughly remaining 54%, or 1.36 million new Americans.

The incremental uptick in people living in the country was far from even. Job opportunities, immigration and migration patterns, and other factors led to some parts of the country growing at a much faster rate, while others contracted significantly. While the U.S. population as a whole grew by approximately 0.8%, states such as North Dakota and Colorado grew at well over double the rate. Meanwhile, the populations of seven states actually shrank last year, with the worst decline in West Virginia, which lost 0.3% of its population.

Click here to see the fastest growing states.

Click here to see the fastest shrinking states.

In most states, the one-year population trend was similar to the longer-term trend. The population of North Dakota, the fastest growing state over the past year, increased 18.9% over the past decade, more than double the national growth rate of 8.4% over that time. Four of the five fastest growing states the past year — including North Dakota — were the fastest growing over the past decade.

While natural growth accounted for 54.2% of the national population increase, states with the most rapidly expanding populations owe most of their growth to migration. In each of the fastest growing states apart from Utah — where the nation’s highest birth rate and lowest death rate are leading a rapid population increase — the majority of new residents moved to the state from within the country or abroad. Likewise, the states with shrinking populations owe their declines to people leaving the state.

In Florida, the fourth fastest growing state, 91.7% of the 365,703 new residents from the last year came from other states or outside the country. Similarly, although 52,207 more people were born net of deaths in Illinois in the past year, a net 67,535 were lost due to outbound migration, making Illinois the second fastest shrinking state nationwide.

Florida and Illinois are reflective of domestic migratory patterns over the past decade. In the past year alone, a combined 562,506 people from the Northeast and Midwest regions of the country relocated to the South and the West.

In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., William H Frey, demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program, explained that as affordable housing and the job market began to collapse in the late 2000s, there were major declines in the migration to Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and much of the Sun Belt. “What that meant is that states in the North held on to would-be migrants.”

Frey added that as the economy has recovered in the past year or two, the movement from the Northeast and the Midwest to the South and West — the driving force in regional population change — has picked up.

The current population shift to the warmer Sun Belt states began around the mid-20th century. In addition to historical factors such as employment and education opportunities, Americans have begun to consider weather and cost of living in their relocation decisions. In the last five years, Florida surpassed New York to become the third most populous state.

Nevertheless, economic concerns play a significant role in population growth. In most states where population is expanding the most rapidly, the economy is also growing quickly. A booming economy may be the reason Americans move to a given state or the result of people having moved there. In North Dakota, GDP more than doubled over the last 10 years due to the recent oil boom and resulted in the one of the fastest growing populations over that time. Median household income and home values tend to increase accordingly.

To determine the fastest growing and shrinking states, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for years 2005 through 2015. Figures on births, deaths, and population increases due to natural growth, domestic migration, or international migration also came from the Census. GDP figures and industry composition came from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Unemployment rates came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Educational attainment and poverty rates, median household incomes, and median home values came from the American Community Survey, also from the U.S. Census Bureau.

These are the fastest growing (and shrinking) states.

The Fastest Growing States

6. Utah
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 1.7%
> Current population: 2,995,919
> 2014 population: 2,944,498
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 21.3%

In the past year, Utah’s population has increased by 1.7%, one of only six states where the growth rate was double the national pace of 0.8%. Unlike most states with rapidly increasing populations, the majority of Utah’s growth was not due to migration. With about 17 births per 1,000 residents, Utah has the highest birth rate in a single year of any state. The high birth rate, which accounted for 51,516 new Utah residents last year, may be partially due to the state’s large share of Mormon residents, who tend to have large families. Utah also had the lowest death rate in the country, with about five deaths per 1,000 people.

Wealth is also on the rise in Utah. A decade ago, the typical household in the state earned $47,934 a year. Today, a typical Utah household makes $60,922 annually. The 27.1% rise in median household income is the fourth largest of any state. The high incomes reflect a healthy economy, which is among the major factors potential new residents consider when relocating.

5. Texas
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 1.8%
> Current population: 27,469,114
> 2014 population: 26,979,078
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 20.2%

The second most populous state in the country, Texas is also one of the fastest growing. As of July 2015, 27.5 million people called Texas home, up 1.8% from the year before. Over that year, Texas had one of the highest birth rates in the country along with one of the lowest death rates. The Lone Star State’s population also grew by 271,661 people from migration over the same period.

Between the natural and migration population growth rates over the past 10 years, an average of 1,263 people have joined Texas’ population each day, the fastest such growth of any state. A strong economy has kept unemployment low, which has likely helped attract new residents. Over the same 10 year period, unemployment declined by 1 percentage point, while it increased in most states.

4. Florida
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 1.8%
> Current population: 20,271,272
> 2014 population: 19,905,569
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 13.9%

In the last 10 years, Florida’s population grew by an average of roughly 680 people per day. While natural growth — a state’s birth rate outpacing its death rate — was the main source of growth in some states, migration accounted for the vast majority of Florida’s growth. Nearly 92% of new Floridians moved to the state, one of the highest migration rates in the nation.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Florida overtook New York as the third most populous state in the country in late 2014. Since then, the population gap between the two states has only increased. Between July 2014 and July 2015, Florida’s population grew by 1.8% to 20.3 million. Over the period, New York’s population only grew by 0.2% to 19.8 million.

3. Nevada
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 1.9%
> Current population: 2,890,845
> 2014 population: 2,838,281
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 19.7%

Nevada’s population grew at a faster rate than almost every other state in the country. Between July 2014 and July 2015, Nevada’s population expanded from 2.8 million to 2.9 million, a 1.9% increase. While natural growth accounted for just over a quarter of Nevada’s growth, migration accounted for the vast majority of growth in the Silver State.

While Nevada’s population growth in the past year was the third fastest in the nation, it was also third fastest over the last decade. Nevada’s population growth since 2005 of 19.7% was more than double the 8.4% national population growth rate. Despite a rapidly expanding population, Nevada’s economy is relatively sluggish. Over the same 10 years, the state’s GDP grew by only 20.1%. Only Michigan’s economy expanded less.

2. Colorado
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 1.9%
> Current population: 5,456,574
> 2014 population: 5,355,588
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 17.0%

Colorado’s population growth of 1.9% over the past year was the second largest among all states after North Dakota. The population grew by more than 100,000 people, the seventh largest amount nationwide. According to the Denver Post, the last time the state’s population grew by more than 100,000 in one year was 2001. As was the case with most of the fastest growing states, the population increase in Colorado was due primarily to migration rather than births outpacing deaths.

Like other fast-growing states, Colorado’s strong job market seems to be a major factor attracting new residents. Over the past 10 years, Colorado’s labor force grew by 9.4%, the seventh largest growth rate. Over that period, state unemployment dropped by a larger amount than every other state except for Michigan.

1. North Dakota
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: 2.3%
> Current population: 756,927
> 2014 population: 740,040
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 18.9%

North Dakota’s population has grown faster than that of any other state for nearly a decade. The state’s population grew by 2.3% over the past year, and it grew by 18.9% over the past 10 years — each among the highest growth rates of any state. Shortly after the recession, an oil and fracking boom brought on a period of rapid economic growth. North Dakota’s economy expanded by 118.7% over the past 10 years, the only state where the 10-year GDP growth rate exceeds 100%. As of May 2014, North Dakota had by far the highest paying and most concentrated extraction jobs of any state. As a consequence, many Americans, especially young men, flocked to the state looking for high-paying and abundant job opportunities.

Despite the surging population, North Dakota’s appeal to Americans planning to relocate may be less stable than it seems. Due in large part to plummeting oil prices over the past year, numerous North Dakota energy industry companies have filed for bankruptcy, resulting in mass layoffs.

The Fastest Shrinking States

7. New Mexico
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.02%
> Current population: 2,085,109
> 2014 population: 2,085,567
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 8.13%

New Mexico is one of only seven states where the population shrank in the past year. Of the four states bordering Mexico, New Mexico is the only one with a declining population. Net migration to the state from other countries, at 3,631, is one of the lower such figures nationwide. When including domestic migration, 9,721 more people left than arrived in New Mexico in the past year, the fifth largest decline due to migration compared with other states. The relatively poor economic conditions in New Mexico largely explain both the exodus and the state’s difficulty attracting new residents. More than 7% of workers in the state are out of a job, the second highest unemployment rate in the country. Also, as is the case for the nation as a whole, the state’s poverty rate worsened over the past decade, and reached 21.3% this year. Only Mississippi has a higher poverty rate.

6. Mississippi
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.04%
> Current population: 2,992,333
> 2014 population: 2,993,443
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 2.44%

People often move to find better economic opportunities, and Mississippi’s economy is hurting. The typical household in the state earns only $39,680 annually, the lowest median income of any state in the country. Additionally, more than one-fifth of state residents live below the poverty line, the highest poverty rate of any state. Mississippi’s 10-year growth rate of 2.4% is among the slowest in the country. In the past year, the state’s population actually shrank by roughly 1,100 people. Though the state’s negative population growth is also a product of birth and death rates, roughly 9,460 more people moved out of Mississippi then moved in over the same one-year period.

5. Maine
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.07%
> Current population: 1,329,328
> 2014 population: 1,330,256
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 0.59%

Over the last decade, Maine’s population grew at one of the slowest rates of any state, averaging just two new residents each day. Last year, Maine was one of seven states whose populations shrank, declining by an estimated 928 people. Unlike most states with shrinking populations, the majority of Maine’s contraction was due to natural causes as opposed to emigration. With one death for every 100 residents, Maine had one of the highest death rates in the country in addition to one of the lowest birth rates. Along with West Virginia, Maine is one of two states where more people died than were born over the last year.

Like most states with slow-growing — even shrinking — populations, Maine’s economy has not fared particularly well. While the U.S. GDP grew by 37.9% over the last decade, Maine’s grew by just 20.3% — the third smallest expansion nationwide.

4. Connecticut
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.11%
> Current population: 3,590,886
> 2014 population: 3,594,762
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 2.30%

Connecticut is one of three New England states with a shrinking population. While the state’s population has increased by 2.3% in the past decade, it contracted over the past year. Roughly 8,850 more people moved out of the state than into it, contributing to a total population reduction of 0.11%. Connecticut’s birth rate of roughly 10 births per 1,000 people in the past year was also among the lowest in the country. Unlike most states with declining populations, Connecticut residents are relatively affluent. The typical household in the state brings in roughly $70,000 annually, the fourth highest median household income of any state in the country and considerably higher than the $51,000 average among the seven states with contracting populations.

3. Vermont
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.12%
> Current population: 626,042
> 2014 population: 626,767
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 0.48%

Vermont’s population declined slightly in the past year, continuing a long-term trend of minimal population growth. Only two states — Rhode Island and Michigan — had a population decline over the past decade. Vermont’s increased, but just by 0.5%, the smallest increase of any state. Since 2010, the Vermont’s population has been effectively unchanged. Like most states where the population declined, there has been an equally limited growth in the Green Mountain State’s economy. Vermont’s labor force contracted in the past decade, one of just nine states where this was the case. Also, the state’s GDP grew by 27.6%, roughly 10 percentage points less than national GDP growth rate over that time.

2. Illinois
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.17%
> Current population: 12,859,995
> 2014 population: 12,882,189
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 0.76%

More people moved out of the Midwest than any other U.S. region between July 2014 and July 2015. In keeping with the trend, Illinois, the most populous state in the Midwest, had a more severe population contraction over that same period than that of any state in the country with the exception of West Virginia.

Like every state in the country except for Michigan and Rhode Island, Illinois’ population increased over the last decade. However, the growth rate was sluggish. The state’s population grew by just 0.8% over the past decade, amounting to an average of just 26 people per day, one of the lowest growth rates in the United States. With the slow long-term population growth, property values in Illinois suffered from one of the sharpest drops in the country. The typical home in the state depreciated by 6.5% between 2005 and 2015 compared to an 8.2% home value appreciation nationwide.

1. West Virginia
> 1-yr pop. growth rate: -0.25%
> Current population: 1,844,128
> 2014 population: 1,848,751
> 10-yr pop. growth rate: 1.50%

Over the past year, 940 more people died than were born in West Virginia, and 3,340 more individuals left the state than arrived. Combined, these trends contributed to the largest population decline of any state in the country. West Virginia has had weak population growth for many years. Over the past five years, the state’s population contracted by 0.6%. Over the past 10 years, the population grew by just 1.5%. Both rates were among the weakest compared with other states.