Cities Where Crime Is Plummeting

The violent crime rate nationwide fell in 2014 to a rate of 365.5 incidents per 100,000 residents, the lowest it has been in decades. Crime, including murder, robbery, and other violent and nonviolent crimes, soared in the 1980s. After peaking in the early 1990s — and apart from a brief uptick during the recession — crime has steadily declined in the last 20 years .

That decline has not been evenly distributed. In some parts of the country, particularly metropolitan areas with extreme poverty and income inequality, not only is the crime rate still problematically high, but also it has recently increased — rather than declined. Other cities, though, have led the country with large decreases in crime. In some cases, the violent crime rate dropped by more than one third. In Dubuque, Iowa, the violent crime rate — which includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault — fell by 58%.

Urban Institute senior fellow John Roman explained that the cities with substantial improvements in violent crime may be benefitting from the recent economic upswing more than others. “We’ve seen 71 months of consecutive private sector employment gains in the United States, and some places have been really amenable to that growth, and [others] have been really resistant to that growth.”

Click here to see the 10 cities where crime is plummeting.

Click here to see the 10 cities where crime is soaring.

While there are other conditions contributing to declining crime in American cities, it appears that a consistently healthy job market is one of the most important factors. Although experts admit the relationship is complicated, gainful employment has been tied to lower crime rates.

Indeed, in seven of the 10 cities with the greatest declines in violent crime, unemployment rates have been consistently below the national rate over the past five years. The two cities with the greatest declines, Dubuque and Ames, Iowa, had among the lowest unemployment in the country during this time. Economic growth in many Iowa metro areas has been so steady that Iowa faces a problem most of the country does not — a shortage of available workers.

Economic growth does not always lead to lower violent crime rates. Sioux Falls, South Dakota, for example, has the lowest unemployment rate among major metropolitan areas, yet the violent crime rate in the city increased by 41.4% between 2010 and 2014, a more severe climb than every major city excepting San Luis-Obispo, California.

According to Roman, this inconsistency stems from the differences in how metropolitan areas respond to economic prosperity. Some parts of the country have not had consistent and even improvement in employment and earnings. Unequal growth can actually lead to more severe crime. “The story today is really about where there are economies that fuel growth across the entire city, versus places where that growth is physically centered in one particular part of the city,” Roman said. “The cities that have experienced the biggest declines in violent crime seem to be cities that have much more organic growth that cuts across multiple geographies within the city.”

Based on figures published by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 metropolitan statistical areas where crime rates declined the most from 2010 to 2014. In order to be considered, areas had to retain the same geographic boundaries during the period covered, and they had to retain consistent reporting practices. We reviewed annual unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for 2010 and 2014. We also considered data from the Census Bureau’s 2014 American Community Survey on household income, educational attainment rates, and poverty.

These are the cities where crime is plummeting.

10. Pittsfield, MA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -32.3%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 453.7
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 307.2
Total murders (2014): 0

Pittsfield, Massachusetts, located in the western part of the state, had one of the most dramatic decreases in violent crime over the past five years. In 2010, 453.7 murder and nonnegligent manslaughters, rapes, aggravated assaults, and robberies took place in the metro area per 100,000 residents. That year, the national violent crime rate was of 404.5 per 100,000 people. By 2014, the rate dropped to 307.2 incidents per 100,000 people, well below the national rate of 365.5 incidents per 100,000 people. The biggest contributor to the decline was the number of aggravated assaults, which fell from 493 cases 2010 to 286 in 2014. A significant decline in crime can often be at least partially explained by an area’s relatively healthy job market, but that does not appear to be the case in Pittsfield. While the metropolitan area’s unemployment rate has declined, Pittsfield’s unemployment rate of 8.9% was below the U.S. rate of 9.6% in 2010 and above the U.S. rate of 6.2% in 2014.

9. Roanoke, VA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -33.1%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 302.9
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 202.7
Total murders (2014): 7

Roanoke’s violent crime rate fell by roughly one-third over the past five years. While its violent crime rate was already relatively low in 2010, it became truly one of the safest metropolitan areas as of 2014, with just 202.7 violent crimes reported per 100,000 residents that year. This was roughly 55% of the national rate. During that time, the number of murders fell. Many of the cities with the biggest declines in crime have consistently been prosperous over the last half decade. In Roanoke, the labor force increased by roughly 2,300, while the unemployment rate fell from 7.6% to 5.2%, both well below the national figures of 9.6% and 6.2%.

8. Cumberland, MD-WV
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -34.0%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 392.4
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 258.9
Total murders (2014): 3

The Cumberland metropolitan region’s violent crime rate was relatively similar to the national figure in 2010. By 2014, the rate fell to just 258.9 incidents per 100,000 residents, lower than the national rate of 365.5 incidents per 100,000 people. The incidence of every major type of violent crime — murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault — fell, with the last of these declining from 301 reported incidents in 2010 to just 203 in 2014. As was the case in many cities with falling violent crime rates, the incidence of property crime also went down in Cumberland. There were 3,084 reported property crimes in the area in 2010 and only 2,818 in 2014. Crime rate declines tend to occur in areas with meaningful improvements in economic conditions, but Cumberland’s job market has actually recovered at a slower rate than the country as a whole. While unemployment on a national level fell from 9.6% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2014, Cumberland’s declined from 9.3% to 7.3%.

7. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -35.1%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 451.8
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 293.4
Total murders (2014): 16

Few cities with improving crime rates are on the West coast, and California actually saw some of the biggest increases in crime in cities like San Luis Obispo. However, Santa Maria, just a 30 minute drive from San Luis Obispo on California’s Southern coast, had a significant reduction in violent crime. While the number of murders, robberies, aggravated assaults and rapes in San Luis Obispo increased from 717 to 1,177 over a five year period, that number fell from 1,841 incidents to 1,294 over that time in Santa Maria. While murders and property crime increased in the metro area, the number of aggravated assaults fell by close to 40%.

6. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -35.5%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 422.9
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 272.6
Total murders (2014): 7

Violent crime fell by 35.5% in the Bremerton metro area, located across the Puget Sound from Seattle. The Bremerton metro area’s decline in crime has not been even, however, as the number of murders increased from just one in 2010 to seven in 2014. Bremerton is also the only metro area on this list that has also seen an uptick in property crime, from 6,618 incidents to 7,382 over that period. Still, the number aggravated assaults — the most common violent crime — dropped by nearly half. Crime tends to correlate with socioeconomic conditions such as income and poverty. Also, while the relationship is complicated, those who have completed an education are less likely to turn to crime. Just under 95% of the metro area’s adults have at least a high school diploma, one of the highest shares among major metro areas considered.

5. Houma-Thibodaux, LA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -37.0%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 384.6
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 242.3
Total murders (2014): 9

Louisiana has one of the worst violent crime rates in the country, but the Houma-Thibodaux metro area’s rate is well below both the state and national rates, particularly after a 37% decline over the past five years. That the metro area — located roughly an hour Southwest of New Orleans — is an outlier is somewhat surprising given several demographic indicators. For example, just 14.6% of area adults have at least a bachelor’s degree, and only 77.3% have a high school diploma, each among the lowest rates in the country. The city’s job market, on the other hand, fits the profile of a city with declining crime. The metro’s unemployment rate of 4.8% is one of the lowest among U.S. metro areas.

4. Lexington-Fayette, KY
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -40.0%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 434.2
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 260.4
Total murders (2014): 22

Violent crime tends to be more common in areas with greater poverty. Kentucky — which has the fifth highest poverty rate in the country but the sixth lowest violent crime rate — is an exception to this rule, as is Lexington-Fayette. The city’s poverty rate of 18.2% is worse than the majority of metro areas. And yet the region’s violent crime rate fell by 40% over five years to 260.4 crimes per 100,000 residents compared to a national rate of 365.5 per 100,000. The metro area had just 88 aggravated assaults last year per 100,000 citizens compared to a national rate of 232 per 100,000 people.

3. Bend-Redmond, OR
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -44.8%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 304.9
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 168.3
Total murders (2014): 0

Crime in Bend, Oregon was already at just 75% of the national rate in 2010. By 2014, Bend became one of the 20 safest large metro areas with a violent crime rate less than half the national rate. There were seven murders in the area in 2010 and none in 2014. The aggravated assault count dropped from 390 to just 184. Similarly, the number of property crimes fell by roughly 800 incidents.

2. Ames, IA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -56.0%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 299.5
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 131.8
Total murders (2014): 0

Like several other cities with falling violent crime rates, Ames residents are well educated and benefit from a healthy job market. More than 96% of adults had at least a high school diploma in 2014, and 47.9% had at least a bachelor’s degree, both among the highest rates nationwide. Also, just 2.9% of the area’s workforce was unemployed that year, less than half the national rate of 6.2%. Residents were also relatively safe, with a violent crime rate of 131.8 incidents per 100,000 people, down 56% from 2010. While this is one of the lower violent crime rates among large U.S. cities, the incidence of rape was well above the national rate in 2014, at 40.7 per 100,000 residents.

1. Dubuque, IA
5-year decrease in violent crime rate: -58.0%
Violent crime per 100,000 (2010): 422.8
Violent crime per 100,000 (2014): 177.5
Total murders (2014): 0

No metropolitan area reviewed had a greater drop in violent crime than Dubuque, Iowa. Less than 180 violent crimes were reported per 100,000 residents in 2014, down nearly 60% from 2010 when more than 420 crimes were reported per 100,000 people. Like only a handful of U.S. metro areas, there were no murders in Dubuque in 2014. Other crimes were similarly infrequent. Dubuque had a robbery rate of just 22.8 per 100,000 people, for example, less than one-quarter the national rate of 102.2 per 100,000 Americans in 2014. The job market was also exceptionally strong that year, with an unemployment rate of just 4.3%.

Click here to see the 10 cities where crime is soaring.