Special Report

The South Carolina Primary in 8 Charts

Evan Comen, Michael B. Sauter

Published: February 19, 2016 4:16 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 12:58 pm

The results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary provided a snapshot of voter sentiment in the Midwest and New England. Now, with South Carolina’s Republican primary election slotted for Saturday, February 20, and the Democratic event scheduled to take place the following weekend, Americans will get a clearer picture of voter sentiment in the South.

Voter turnout rates during primary elections decline over time as candidates generate momentum and it becomes clearer who the nominee will ultimately be. Therefore, states scheduled to vote earlier in the election process are believed to set the tone for the election season. Primaries and caucuses in these states receive national attention, and politicians, too, dedicate disproportionately large amounts of time and money to swaying the electorates in these areas.

24/7 wall st. took a closer look at South Carolina’s political climate, both heading into Saturday’s primary and over the course of history. How much is really at stake for candidates in this early nominating contest? What unique features of South Carolina are important going into this year’s race?

Click here to see the South Carolina primary in 8 charts.

Click here to see the Nevada caucuses in 8 charts.

At stake for candidates competing in the upcoming South Carolina primary is the black vote. As in a number of Southern states, South Carolina has a relatively large black population. Nearly 30% of residents are African American versus 12.3% of Americans nationwide. Looking at the electorate only, approximately half of South Carolina’s voting-age residents are African American. Of that group, a majority are women.

There are stark socioeconomic differences between the black and white populations. Largely because of that, black voters do not always support the same candidates as white members of the electorate, and if they do, it tends to be for different reasons. For example, since black Americans are far more likely to live in poverty and far more likely to be incarcerated than white Americans, a candidate’s policies regarding these issues are especially relevant to black voters. As a consequence, presidential candidates must customize their message for their audience — in this case, an entire demographic group.

Not only is South Carolina’s black population relatively large, but also African American state residents are more likely to vote than black Americans nationwide as well as white state residents. In the 2012 presidential election, nearly 70% of voting-age black citizens cast a ballot, versus less than two-thirds of white South Carolinians and black voters across the country.

South Carolina’s primary will also offer an early glimpse into another voting group: current and former members of the military. South Carolina is home to eight military bases, and of the 2.2 million veterans nationwide, 418,000 live in South Carolina. Donald Trump — the only Republican presidential candidate who advocates for reduced military spending — may have more difficulty in the state. Jeb Bush, on the other hand, who is obliged to defend his brother’s invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, is likely hoping for an easier time garnering support in South Carolina.

As is the case with other early primary states, the momentum from a win in South Carolina is invaluable but by no means guarantees the nomination. It also does not ensure an eventual White House win. The winner of the South Carolina Republican primary went on to win the nomination in six of the party’s seven races since 1980. The winner of the state’s Democratic primary race became the party’s nominee in three of the four primaries since 1992.

And while a number of South Carolina primary winners in the past went on to win the presidency, a number of presidents failed to woo a majority of voters in the state.

A variety of social and economic characteristics are unique to the state, and the political climate has changed considerably over the years. Below are eight visualizations that aim to capture key attributes of South Carolina’s voting population.

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The steep competition in the South Carolina primary election often carries over into the general election. In the last four presidential elections, an average of 63.5% of eligible voters in South Carolina cast a ballot, a higher turnout than in most states. The peaks and troughs represent the higher voter turnout during presidential elections and the relatively low turnout during midterm elections.

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South Carolina’s electorate has relatively strong voter turnout. State residents who do not vote cite “illness or disability” as the most common reason for not voting.

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With the bulk of Iowa and New Hampshire’s populations consisting of white residents, the South Carolina primaries are the first time the country will hear the political voice of citizens who identify African American in the 2016 election. Voter turnout amongst African Americans in South Carolina has been slightly higher than that of African Americans nationwide in the past four presidential elections.

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The poverty status, education, and income levels of a population can influence how an area’s electorate will vote and the turnout. The social and economic characteristics of South Carolina’s population often do not align with the nation. Education, for example, is a major driver of voter turnout as is financial security. Of South Carolina adults with a college degree, 84.0% made it to the polls in 2012 versus 77.1% of adults with similar education nationwide. Overall, the voter turnout rate that year was 64.7% in South Carolina and 61.8% nationwide.

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Unlike New Hampshire and other swing states, South Carolina routinely votes Republican. A majority of votes have gone to the Republican presidential candidate in each of the past four general elections. In three of these four elections, the margin of victory was greater than 10 percentage points.

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The share of South Carolina’s black population is substantially larger than that of New Hampshire, Iowa, and the United States. Some 27.1% of South Carolina residents are African American, well over double the nationwide composition of 12.3%. The state is far more demographically diverse than Iowa or New Hampshire — the two other states that have held primaries this year.

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South Carolina, along with Nevada, is the last of the early primary election states. The outcome of the state’s primary can have a tangible impact on the results of the all-important Super Tuesday, when 24 other states hold primaries. A great deal of energy and money is therefore spent wooing South Carolina voters. Is winning the state really so important for candidates? For Republicans, six of the last seven primary winners have gone on to win their party’s nomination.

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South Carolina, along with Nevada, is the last of the early primary election states. The outcome in the state’s primary can have a tangible effect on the all-important results of Super Tuesday, when 24 other states hold primaries. A great deal of energy and money is therefore spent wooing South Carolina voters. Is winning the state really so important for candidates? For Democrats, three of the last four primary winners have gone on to win their party’s nomination.

Click here to see the Nevada caucuses in 8 charts.