Special Report
Understanding Super Tuesday In 23 Charts
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The Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina nomination contests provided a snapshot of voter sentiment in four distinct geographic pockets of the country. Now, the battle moves on to the 12 states that will vote on Super Tuesday 2016.
On March 1, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia will hold Republican and Democratic primaries or caucuses. Republicans in Alaska will also hold a vote on Tuesday, as will Democrats in Colorado and in American Samoa. With more than 20% of available Democratic delegates and more than 25% of Republican delegates at stake, Super Tuesday is the most important day in the nomination process.
24/7 Wall St. only considered states where delegates are bound to adhere to the primary or caucus outcome from at least one of the parties. In Wyoming and North Dakota, delegates are not allocated based on the result of their March 1 nominating contests.
Click here to see Super Tuesday in 23 charts.
The term Super Tuesday has been used for decades to describe various high-stakes primary election days, although the number of states participating on a given Super Tuesday has changed over the years. In 1984, nine states scheduled their primary elections on the same day. In 2000, 11 states held primaries or caucuses on a single day, and in 2008, 24 states voted on that year’s Super Tuesday. Now, with 12 states holding primaries or caucuses on March 1, Super Tuesday signifies the end of early voting and one of the last major opportunities for candidates to build momentum during the nomination contest.
In the five Democratic primary contests since 1984, the four candidates who won big on Super Tuesday went on to win the party’s nomination. On the Republican side, all five candidates who won a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday ultimately received the GOP’s nomination.
The 2016 race has been unique. Two party outsiders, Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders, have had surprising success with relatively little backing from their respective parties. Meanwhile, the candidate with the most monetary backing and the strongest political connections, Jeb Bush, performed relatively poorly in the first four states and dropped out.
“I have never seen a nomination contest that fundamentally rejected a political party the way the Republicans are doing this year,” said James Stimson, the Raymond Dawson distinguished bicentennial professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in an interview with 24/7 Wall St. “I’ve been watching the Republicans play ‘Whose Turn is it this Year?’ in which there’s always a designated nominee and Republican voters just fall right in line and choose that nominee and forecasts turn out to be accurate, and this year was anything but that.”
The election has also grown in importance, as all three branches of government are up for grabs. While Republicans will likely retain a majority in the House no matter who wins the presidency, Democrats need just five seats to gain control of the Senate. With a Democratic vice president, just four additional Senate seats would be needed for a Democratic majority. With the unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia — and assuming Congress will succeed in blocking any nominee President Barack Obama picks — control of the judicial branch will also be influenced by the next president.
Candidates appeal to very different sets of voters, especially in early voting contests, which often show an array of political positions within each party not seen in general elections. In South Carolina, based on exit polling conducted in the Republican primaries, Trump appeals to voters who value candidates who they think can bring needed change, are from outside the political establishment, and support the deportation of illegal immigrants and a ban on Muslim immigration, among many other campaign promises. Sen. Marco Rubio will likely appeal to voters who oppose a ban on Muslim immigration, believe illegal immigrants should be offered paths to obtaining legal status, and prefer a candidate with experience in politics. Voters who believe shared values are the most important quality in a candidate, and voters who are very conservative, are most likely to support Sen. Ted Cruz.
According to exit poll data from the New Hampshire Democratic primaries, Sanders is the favorite with voters who value honesty and trustworthiness most, and a candidate who cares about people like them. Sanders beats former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in all but the top age and income brackets, and he is especially popular among voters 18 to 29 and those who make less than $30,000 a year. Clinton does well with voters who value most the right experience in a candidate, oppose a single-payer health care system, and believe the economy is healthy.
Demographic characteristics are also major factors in voter preferences. In seven of the 12 states, the share of the population who identifies as black is lower than the national share. Hispanics make up a larger share compared to the nation in just two of the states. Three states have larger than average Asian populations. In three of the 12 states, the share of the white population is smaller than the national composition. There are often stark socioeconomic differences between these populations. As a consequence, voter sentiment tends to differ between these groups.
To build momentum in the Super Tuesday states, candidates will need to capture the religious vote as well. In seven of the 12 states with primaries or caucuses on March 1, the share of residents who claim to be either moderately or very religious exceeds the national share.
Below are 23 charts that aim to capture key information related to the the upcoming Super Tuesday.
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1. The Year in Republican Polls
One of the most notable characteristics of the 2016 election is the surprising success of real estate mogul Donald J. Trump. With relatively little party backing, Trump has managed to consistently climb the polls and do well in the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina contests.
Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida — the most well-funded GOP candidate — suspended his campaign after failing to gain traction in the early contests.
Sen. Marco Rubio has maintained a third place position since November, and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has managed to poll just well enough to keep his podium at the Republican debates. Since October, support for Sen. Ted Cruz, while trailing Trump’s lead, rose the most dramatically of any Republican candidate. After peaking in the polls last October, Dr. Ben Carson has joined Kasich in the lower end of the polling spectrum.
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2. The Year in Democratic Polls
Former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came into the race as the presumed nominee. Despite this, Sen. Bernie Sanders outpaced expectations and had been quickly rising in popularity. Sanders has lacked the party support Clinton has enjoyed. Over the course of the campaign, Sanders had enjoyed the support of younger voters, who have been major drivers behind his rise in the polls. As recently as May, Clinton was leading Sanders by more than 50 points. Recent polls show Sanders has pulled to within 10 points of Clinton.
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3. Delegates Won as of Super Tuesday
Currently, Trump leads the Republican party with 82 delegates. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads the contest with 91 delegates. With 641 Republican and 1,034 Democratic delegates at stake on Tuesday, any candidate has the chance to become the party frontrunner.
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4. States Voting on Super Tuesday
Twelve states will hold Democratic and Republican primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, March 1. Alaska will hold only a Republican caucus, and Colorado will only hold a Democratic caucus. While Democrats in Alaska and Republicans in Colorado will also vote on Tuesday, the delegates for these parties are not required to commit their vote to a candidate. Similarly, North Dakota and Wyoming, which will also participate in Super Tuesday, do not have committed delegates.
While the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina nomination contests each had a defining demographic that played a decisive role in the outcome of the election, the Super Tuesday voting states are about as diverse as the nation overall.
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5. Super Tuesday Wins Led to 9 of the Last 10 Nominations
Since 1988, no candidate has won his party’s nomination without winning Super Tuesday. The last candidate to represent his party in the general election without a Super Tuesday victory was Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984. Losing Super Tuesday, however, foretold of Mondale’s looming defeat in the general election, as he lost every state but Minnesota to Republican incumbent, President Ronald Reagan.
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6. Primary Election Season 2016
With a combined 1,675 delegates at stake, Super Tuesday is by far the most decisive day in the nomination process.
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7. Smaller Share of Total Delegates at Stake on Super Tuesday Than 2008
The term “Super Tuesday” was coined during the 1980 election, when the primaries of three states coincided on the same day. Since then, states have maneuvered to schedule their primaries earlier in the election cycle to increase their importance in the election. 2008 marked the biggest Super Tuesday to date, when 25 states held their primaries or caucuses on February 5.
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8. Increasing In All States, Republican Turnout At Record Levels
Turnout in the Republican primaries increased to record levels in South Carolina — the most recent primary. In fact, all four states to vote so far exceeded previous turnout records.
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9. Trump Leading Most Republican Voter Groups
According to exit polls conducted at the South Carolina Republican primary, Trump led among voters who want a candidate that will tell it like it is, among those who prefer a political outsider, and for whose top issue is immigration, among other qualities and campaign promises. Much of Trump’s electoral strength comes from his ability to attract conservatives and moderates, evangelicals and not born-again Christians alike — groups that have historically been divided in nomination contests.
In the exit poll Rubio had the edge among those looking ahead to the general election for his perceived ability to beat the Democratic nominee in November, and Cruz was the favorite among voters who identify as very conservative.
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10. Democratic Voters Split Along Age and Income Lines
According to exit poll data collected at the New Hampshire Democratic primary, Sanders did well with young, independent voters in the lower income brackets. While many voters who favored Sanders did so because of his focus on income inequality, many of Clinton’s supporters believe the economy is fine. Clinton also did well with older, wealthier voters.
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11. Racial Characteristics Among Super Tuesday States Compared to the Nation
The demographic composition of a state can play a role in how residents vote. In the above graphs, the states voting on Super Tuesday are situated along a spectrum, reflecting the racial makeup of their populations.
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12. Socioeconomic Characteristics Among Super Tuesday States Compared to the Nation
The socioeconomic composition of a state can play a role in how its residents vote. In the above graphs, the states voting on Super Tuesday are situated along a spectrum reflecting the socioeconomic makeup of their populations.
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13. Conservative Residents as Share of Population
According to a poll conducted by Gallup, the share of conservatives in Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma is greater than their share in the country as a whole. This could help Cruz, who according to exit poll data from the South Carolina Republican primary, did best among voters who consider themselves very conservative.
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14. Moderate Residents as Share of Population
According to data from a Gallup poll, five out of the 12 states voting on Super Tuesday have larger shares of voters who identify as moderate than the share of moderates in the country as a whole. These voters will likely play a significant role in the upcoming nomination contests. Rubio and Trump did the best among moderates out of any candidate in the Republican contest in South Carolina.
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15. Religious Residents as Share of Population
The religious vote will likely influence the day’s outcome. Trump has won big with evangelical voters. The success has been to the detriment of Cruz, who crafted his campaign around such voters. In seven of the 12 voting states on Tuesday, there are larger shares of residents who consider themselves religious than in the country as a whole.
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16. Clinton Raises and Spends More Than All Other Candidates
While she has spent more money than any other candidate, Clinton still has the most left to spend, as her campaign and supporting PACs have also raised the most.
While Trump is the current frontrunner in the Republican race, his campaign has raised and spent significantly less than the majority of his competitors.
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17. Cruz Leads Campaign Spending in Super Tuesday States
In terms of spending, the Republican candidates have fairly unique campaign strategies. For example, while Carson has spent more than $2 million in Alabama, no other candidate has spent more than $150,000 in the state. In the other Super Tuesday states, campaign spending is not as lopsided.
*May reflect expenditure to entities headquartered in one state but operating in another.
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18. Sanders Leads Spending in Super Tuesday States
While the Clinton campaign is far better funded than the Sanders campaign, Sanders has managed to outspend Clinton in a few key Super Tuesday states. Looking at Clinton’s $22,116 receipt in Vermont, it seems the former secretary of state may have abandoned all hopes of winning Senator Sanders’ home state. The same cannot be said of Sanders, who has outspent Clinton by about $28,000 in Arkansas, her husband’s home state.
*May reflect expenditure to entities headquartered in one state but operating in another.
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19. Smaller Donations Increasingly Important to Sanders Campaign
The Sanders campaign is mostly funded by small contributions, with a reported average of less than $30 per donation. The inflow of fundraising has increased since the beginning of his campaign, expanding dramatically in the last few months.
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20. Clinton Campaign Fundraising Dominated by Donations Over $2,000
In contrast to the Sanders campaign, the Clinton campaign is funded mostly by contributions greater than $2,000. The former secretary of state has maintained a relatively steady flow of fundraising throughout her campaign.
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21. Trump Less Well Funded by Major Donors Than Previous GOP Primary Frontrunners
In recent elections, party support has coincided with electoral success. Candidates such as Sen. John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney were chosen as GOP favorites, funded as such, and eventually won the party nomination. This year, however, Republican frontrunner Trump has relatively little backing from major donors.
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22. Super Tuesday States Clinton Won in the 2008 Primaries
In 2008, Clinton sought the Democratic party nomination against President Barack Obama. She maintained a tight race, winning many key states and getting close to being the party’s nominee. While a win in 2008 is no guarantee of a repeat victory, campaign networks established in years past may help Clinton this Tuesday.
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23. Critical to Sanders, Voter Turnout Lower Among Younger Americans
Voter Turnout tends to be lower among 18-24 year olds. This trend exposes Sen. Sanders to great risk, as his campaign is disproportionately supported by younger voters.
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