Special Report
Cities Where Hurricanes Would Cause the Most Damage
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If the nearly 7 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts were to be destroyed by hurricanes, reconstruction would cost an estimated $1.55 trillion. Miami, Florida, with 780,482 at-risk homes, leads the nation as the city in danger of the greatest damage from a hurricane.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed the number of homes at risk and the estimated construction costs for U.S. metro areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from real estate data tracking company CoreLogic. The 15 cities vulnerable to the greatest damage are listed in order by the number of homes at risk of destruction from storm surge — the abnormal rises in sea level due to storms.
The strength and duration of storms, as well as the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall, declines the further north along the Atlantic coastline a city is located, although nothing is certain. “We just don’t know where that next hurricane is going to hit,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. “We know it can happen just about anywhere along the coast.”
Click here to see the cities where hurricanes would cause the most damage.
The risk of storm damage in an area is contingent on a range of factors. Chief among them are the length of coastline, coastal elevation, and density of homes. Florida, for example, which is home to six of the 15 cities at risk of the greatest hurricane damage, has the longest shoreline of any state after only Alaska. In New York, on the other hand, where the likelihood of a serious hurricane is relatively low, the high population density along the coast means the area is at risk of potentially far greater levels of damage.
Hurricanes strike some parts of the country with much greater frequency than others. It is likely that major metropolitan areas in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana — where storms are more common — will be the next to see a catastrophic event inflict billions of dollars in damage. Miami has been in the direct path of several major hurricanes in the past century and a half, while Philadelphia has been largely spared.
However, if history is any indication, there is no way of telling whether Philadelphia or Miami will be the next city to sustain a serious catastrophic storm. Tampa Bay, located in the hurricane hotbed that is the Gulf of Mexico, has not sustained a direct hit from a hurricane in decades. The Greater New York metropolitan area, meanwhile, was struck in 2012 by one of the costliest storms in U.S. history, with damages estimated at more than $60 billion.
To some extent, damage from serious hurricanes cannot be avoided. However, there are small and large-scale measures residents and city governments can take to mitigate flood damage. A number of cities on this list, those in Florida in particular, enforce building codes ensuring homes are built with greater structural integrity for example. State and city governments can also take large scale and relatively expensive measures such as dikes, pump stations, and sea walls, which can lower damage from storms dramatically. Jeffery noted that in general cities do too little to mitigate potential damage, and that large-scale, long-term investments are very costly and difficult to promote.
Many Americans in these cities are likely not adopting safety measures because too much time has passed since the previous hurricane, and flood mitigation and other hurricane safety standards do not seem essential. To be sure, the deadly and costly impact of hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Sandy in 2012 are still fresh in the minds of many area residents. Jeffery described this phenomenon as “hurricane amnesia.” He said, “People don’t think about it when it doesn’t happen regularly.”
Many Americans living in hazardous flood zones who have not prepared their home may simply be ignorant of the risk. In Florida, home to six of the 15 cities with the most properties at risk, a hurricane has not made landfall in over a decade. This is remarkable, given that the state averaged one hurricane every 1.6 years in the 20th century. Since the last hurricane to strike the state in 2005, millions of people moved to Florida, residents who have never had the experience of preparing for or surviving a hurricane.
To identify the 15 cities at risk of the greatest storm damage, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the number of homes potentially at risk of being damaged by hurricanes in the 88 U.S. metro areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from property information company CoreLogic. The estimated rebuilding costs in the event of a total loss in each city also came from CoreLogic. Death tolls and damage estimates for past hurricanes came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These are the 15 cities with the most to lose in a hurricane.
15. Lafayette, LA
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 119,942
> Cost of reconstruction: $25.8 billion
> Population: 490,488
> Last serious hurricane: Andrew
Lafayette, located about 135 miles west of New Orleans in the southern central part of Louisiana, was not directly hit by Hurricane Katrina like the Big Easy was. Still, the city is at risk of serious hurricanes and has been in the path of some of the largest in state history, including Betsy in 1965 and Andrew in 1992. There are nearly 120,000 properties in the Lafayette area at risk of damage due to flooding from a hurricane. The costs to rebuild the homes at risk would amount to $25.8 billion.
14. Myrtle Beach, SC
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 123,645
> Cost of reconstruction: $21.6 billion
> Population: 431,964
> Last serious hurricane: Hugo
City regulations in Myrtle Beach require homes in certain locations be built 3 feet above base flood elevations — minimum heights above sea level based on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regulations. Areas below the first floor of the homes in these areas must also be ventilated so floodwaters can flow through in the event of a storm surge. These measures would certainly help minimize damage in the event of a hurricane. However, against a cataclysmic weather event such as a Category 5 hurricane, costly damage would be nearly impossible to avoid. If such a hurricane were to strike the Gulf Coast, rebuilding Myrtle Beach’s approximately 123,000 homes would cost an estimated $21.6 billion.
13. Boston, MA
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 129,167
> Cost of reconstruction: $38.5 billion
> Population: 4,774,321
> Last serious hurricane: Bob
Boston is the northernmost city at risk of catastrophic damages from hurricanes. But while the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall is lower in Boston, New England is no stranger to destructive storms. Since 1851, the state has been hit by 10 Category 1 or higher hurricanes, including Bob in 1991. While Hurricane Bob was only a Category 2 event at landfall, it still caused massive property damage in Boston and the surrounding area, with the total damage to homes throughout New England estimated at $1.5 billion. Today, a serious hurricane could severely damage nearly 130,000 homes and cost Boston residents and businesses $38.5 billion in reconstruction costs.
12. Charleston, SC
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 145,356
> Cost of reconstruction: $36.2 billion
> Population: 744,526
> Last serious hurricane: Hugo
South Carolina has been hit by 30 hurricanes since the 1850s, including Hurricanes Hazel in 1954 and Hugo in 1989, both Category 4 events that caused millions of dollars in damages to the region. Hugo made landfall just north of Charleston, causing the city $7 billion in damages as winds exceeded 100 miles per hour in the city. As many as 80% of roofs in the city were damaged. Charleston has a number of regulations for new homes built within parts of the city at high risk of flooding. There are, according to CoreLogic, roughly 145,000 such homes in the Charleston area at risk of damage from storm surge.
24/7 Wall St. 11. Philadelphia, PA
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 165,940
> Cost of reconstruction: $31.9 billion
> Population: 6,069,875
> Last serious hurricane: Sandy
Philadelphia is located on the East Coast roughly 60 miles from the ocean. The further north along the Atlantic coast a city is located, the less likely it is to be affected by a hurricane. However, all areas along the coast are vulnerable to some degree to catastrophic storms, and it is very difficult to predict where a hurricane will strike. Hurricane Sandy devastated cities along the northern Atlantic shoreline. While Philadelphia escaped the brunt of the storm, Sandy knocked out power for about a million area residents.
10. Jacksonville, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 166,709
> Cost of reconstruction: $35.8 billion
> Population: 1,449,481
> Last serious hurricane: Dora
The Jacksonville area, located along the Atlantic coast, is one of six cities in Florida on this list. With Florida likely the most vulnerable of U.S. regions to storms, rebuilding these cities — and homes across the state — in the event of catastrophic hurricane damage would be an incredibly expensive undertaking. Including islands, bays, rivers, and the full seacoast, Florida’s shoreline spans 8,436 miles, a longer shoreline than every state except for Alaska. To help ensure area homes can withstand wind-borne debris during hurricanes, Florida introduced new building codes in 2002, after Hurricane Andrew — one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history — devastated much of the state.
9. Naples, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 180,919
> Cost of reconstruction: $43.2 billion
> Population: 357,305
> Last serious hurricane: Wilma
The Naples metro area, located in Southwest Florida on the Gulf of Mexico, is home to around 180,000 residential properties at risk of serious damage from storm surge. In the event of catastrophic hurricane damage, it would require $43.2 billion to rebuild these homes, one of the most costly potential rebuilding projects of all areas vulnerable to hurricane damage. Like most cities in Florida, new homes built in Naples are subject to building codes designed to protect against flood and storm damage. The last serious hurricane to make landfall in the Naples area was Wilma, which was tied to more than 60 deaths and caused more than $20 billion of damage across the state.
8. Bradenton, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 250,615
> Cost of reconstruction: $47.3 billion
> Population: 768,918
> Last serious hurricane: Wilma
Florida is likely the most susceptible state to hurricanes — well over 100 Category 1 or higher storms made landfall in the state since 1852. The Bradenton area, located in the western part of the state, was directly hit by serious storms fewer times than most of the state’s coastal cities. Still, the city has more than a quarter of a million homes at risk, with the total estimated cost of reconstruction after a serious hurricane approaching $50 billion.
7. Houston, TX
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 280,112
> Cost of reconstruction: $51.9 billion
> Population: 6,656,947
> Last serious hurricane: Rita
A hurricane has not made landfall in the Houston area since 2008, when Hurricane Ike caused as many as 112 deaths and an estimated $33 billion in damage across the region. In 2005, like a number of other cities along the Gulf Coast, Houston was slammed by Hurricane Katrina. The impact on the Houston area from the mass influx of refugees from New Orleans may have been even greater than the damage from the storm itself. According to the The Texas Tribune, the number of evacuees in Houston peaked around 250,000.
6. Cape Coral, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 306,953
> Cost of reconstruction: $62.0 billion
> Population: 701,982
> Last serious hurricane: Charley
Cape Coral, Florida, is located on the Gulf Coast near Fort Myers. The area was nearly directly hit in 2004 by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 storm. Damages to thousands of homes and businesses amounted to an estimated $600 million. Things could have been much worse, as there are more than 300,000 homes at risk of serious flooding damage from hurricanes, with the costs to repair those properties totalling an estimated $62 billion, more than 10% of the total repair costs for the state as a whole.
5. Virginia Beach, VA-NC
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 385,084
> Cost of reconstruction: $83.5 billion
> Population: 1,724,876
> Last serious hurricane: Isabel
In 2003, Hurricane Isabel dealt about $5 billion in damages across eight U.S. states. The largest share of the damages was an estimated $925 million in Virginia. Virginia Beach is a relatively low-elevation metropolitan area, and thousands of area residents live 5 feet in elevation above sea level or less. Some hurricanes can cause storm surge well in excess of 10 feet. Corelogic estimates that there are more than 385,000 Virginia Beach homes at risk of damage from storm surge during a hurricane.
4. New Orleans, LA
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 390,806
> Cost of reconstruction: $94.0 billion
> Population: 1,262,888
> Last serious hurricane: Katrina
The state of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans have each been slammed by a number of serious hurricanes, including Category 3 Betsy and Category 5 Camille. However, nothing in the history of the city or the country comes close to either property damage or loss of life sustained during 2005’s Hurricane Katrina. Somewhere between 1,200 and 2,000 people died, more than a million were displaced, and floods and fires cost the region more than $150 billion. Surrounding areas in Louisiana and Mississippi were also impacted, but New Orleans was hit directly and sustained the lion’s share of the damage. If such a storm were to hit again, 390,000 homes in the city would be at risk, with costs to repair those homes totalling an estimated $94 billion.
3. Tampa, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 454,746
> Cost of reconstruction: $80.6 billion
> Population: 2,975,225
> Last serious hurricane: 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
Compared to many Florida cities, Tampa has been generally spared from hurricanes. The last serious hurricane struck Tampa more than 80 years ago. However, previous events may not be indicative of future ones, and the city is by many measures one of the most vulnerable places in the country for serious flooding damage due to hurricane storm surge. The widespread, low-lying area is home to nearly 3 million houses that are at risk of damage. The costs of reconstruction from a serious hurricane could come to more than $80 billion.
2. New York, NY
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 719,373
> Cost of reconstruction: $260.2 billion
> Population: 20,182,305
> Last serious hurricane: Sandy
While very high intensity storms are more likely to occur in the southern part of the Eastern Seaboard or in the Gulf Coast, they nevertheless can happen in the northern part of the country. Further, because of cities such as New York, Category 1 hurricanes and even tropical storms can be highly costly to a city. This was the case in the Greater New York metropolitan area, when Hurricane Sandy hit the region just before Halloween 2012. A full moon and high tide boosted storm surge, and an estimated 37,000 homes were destroyed or damaged in the area. Subway tunnels were flooded and damaged so severely that the city is still struggling to repair them four years later. Sandy was only a Category 1 hurricane, and was actually downgraded to a superstorm shortly before it made landfall. Still, the storm resulted in $62 billion in damages. If a serious hurricane were to hit the New York area, CoreLogic estimates nearly 720,000 homes to be at risk, with the potential cost of reconstruction estimated at $260.2 billion.
24/7 Wall St. 1. Miami, FL
> Total properties at risk of hurricane damage: 780,482
> Cost of reconstruction: $143.9 billion
> Population: 6,012,331
> Last serious hurricane: Andrew
Florida is hit by more hurricanes, on average, than any other state. In the 20th century, more than 60 hurricanes made landfall in the Sunshine State. However, it has been more than a decade since a major storm struck Florida. Hurricane Wilma was the most recent hurricane to impact the state, making landfall in the southern part of the state in 2005. The last serious hurricane to hit Miami was 1992’s Andrew — a Category 5 storm. Andrew destroyed or damaged more than 125,000 homes in Southern Florida and Louisiana. The $45.9 billion in damages Andrew left behind made it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history at the time. Since 1992, Southern Florida has been substantially developed, and CoreLogic estimates that more than 780,000 homes are at risk of damage from storm surge, and that reconstruction would cost $143 billion.
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